The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to salvage the final game of their series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. After dropping four straight games, including a heartbreaking 6-5 loss yesterday where they blew a late lead, the D-backs turn to their ace Brandon Pfaadt to stop the bleeding. Meanwhile, the Cardinals counter with veteran Sonny Gray as they go for the sweep and their 16th win in 20 games.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-125) ★★★☆☆
– Top Prop: Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110) ★★★★☆
– Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105) ★★★★☆
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Arizona Diamondbacks | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +106 | -125 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Cardinals -120, Total 7.5
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Pfaadt vs Sonny Gray – Who Has the Edge?
Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.81 ERA)
- Leading MLB with 7 wins in 2025
- 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP across 56.2 innings
- 44 strikeouts with just 14 walks this season
- Has been Arizona’s most consistent starter in a rotation hit by injuries
- Coming off a quality start against Atlanta (6 IP, 2 ER)
St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (5-1, 4.02 ERA)
- 5-1 record with 4.02 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 56 innings
- Impressive 61 strikeouts with only 13 walks (4.7 K/BB ratio)
- ERA is somewhat misleading – two rough outings have inflated it
- 2.89 ERA in seven home starts at Busch Stadium this season
- Excellent 0.95 WHIP in day games this season
Advantage: Even. While Pfaadt has more wins, Gray has the superior strikeout numbers and has been nearly untouchable at home.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been a strength all season, ranked 5th in MLB with a 3.25 ERA. Ryan Helsley secured yesterday’s win but had to work through traffic in the 9th inning. Arizona’s relief corps has struggled recently, allowing 7 runs in the last two games of this series. The D-backs’ pen has blown 6 saves in their last 12 opportunities, which partly explains their poor 8-10 record in one-run games.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Arizona is just 4-6 in their last 10 games despite a .281 team batting average
- Cardinals are 15-4 in their last 19 games overall
- St. Louis is 18-8 at home this season (a .692 winning percentage)
- The Diamondbacks are 13-13 on the road this year
- St. Louis has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these teams
- The under is 5-2 in Pfaadt’s last 7 road starts
- Gray has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his 9 starts this season
Player Spotlight: Lars Nootbaar Heating Up
Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been swinging a hot bat lately, particularly at Busch Stadium. He has 7 home runs on the season and has been a catalyst for the Cardinals’ offense. In his last 10 games, he’s hitting over .300 with consistent extra-base hit production. With Pfaadt giving up 1.31 HR/9 this season, Nootbaar could be primed for a big day.
Busch Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Busch Stadium typically plays as a pitcher-friendly park, ranking in the bottom third for run production across MLB venues. With a 2:15 pm ET start time, shadows could come into play during the middle innings, giving pitchers an additional advantage. Gray has leveraged these conditions effectively all season, posting a 2.89 ERA in his home starts. The Cardinals’ familiarity with their home field has helped them to an impressive 18-8 record at Busch Stadium.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Diamondbacks-Cardinals Showdown
Primary Play: Cardinals ML (-125)
I’m backing the Cardinals in this matchup based on several key factors. St. Louis is playing exceptional baseball right now, winning 15 of their last 19 games. They’ve been particularly dominant at home with an 18-8 record at Busch Stadium. While Pfaadt has been solid for Arizona, the Diamondbacks are reeling with four straight losses and have struggled in one-run games (8-10).
Gray’s home splits are impressive, and the Cardinals’ offense has been capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes. The D-backs’ bullpen issues further solidify my confidence in a Cardinals victory to complete the sweep.
Strong Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
This has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel between two quality right-handers. Gray has been excellent at home, and Pfaadt has shown good command with just 14 walks in 56.2 innings. Busch Stadium’s pitcher-friendly dimensions and the afternoon shadows should suppress scoring. Additionally, both starters have been efficient, which means fewer innings for the relievers. With the under hitting in 5 of Pfaadt’s last 7 road starts, I expect another low-scoring affair.
Worth Considering: Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Gray has been racking up strikeouts this season with 61 in 56 innings (9.8 K/9). Arizona’s lineup, while productive, does strike out at a decent clip (7.54 K/game). Gray has exceeded 6 strikeouts in 6 of his 9 starts this season, and in afternoon games at Busch, he’s averaged 7.2 K’s per outing. The shadows during the middle innings should help him miss even more bats.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Lars Nootbaar | To Record an Extra-Base Hit | +175 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Under 2.5 Earned Runs | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Ketel Marte | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Expect a Hard-Fought Finale
While Pfaadt has been a bright spot for Arizona with his 7 wins, the Diamondbacks’ overall struggles and bullpen issues make it difficult to pick them against a Cardinals team that’s firing on all cylinders. St. Louis has been finding ways to win close games, which is exactly what I expect today – a tightly contested affair where the Cardinals’ home-field advantage and superior bullpen ultimately make the difference.
The under looks particularly appealing given the pitching matchup and venue factors. Gray should control the Arizona lineup with his impressive strikeout ability, while Pfaadt will keep the D-backs competitive. In the end, look for St. Louis to complete the sweep and extend their impressive home record.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 4, Diamondbacks 2
