Kentucky Derby (G1) | Churchill Downs, Race 12 | Saturday, May 3, 2025

Purse: $5 Million | Distance: 1 1/4 Miles | Surface: Dirt

Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET |

2025 Kentucky Derby Picks

1. No.8 Journalism (3-1)
2. No.18 Sovereignty (5-1)
3. No.21 Baeza (12-1)
4. No.1 Citizen Bull (20-1)

2025 Kentucky Derby Longshots

No.3 Final Gambit (30-1), No.7 Luxor Café (15-1), No.9 Burnham Square (12-1), No.12 East Avenue (20-1), No.13 Publisher (30-1), No.16 Coal Battle (30-1), No.17 Sandman (6-1)

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse-By-Horse Analysis

1. Citizen Bull (20-1)

Summary: An accomplished front-runner as last year’s 2-year-old champion, Citizen Bull brings formidable early speed but must rebound from a subpar final prep and overcome the rail draw. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert (tied for a record six Derby wins) had this colt on a stellar juvenile campaign, including a gate-to-wire win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, Citizen Bull faded to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby after failing to secure an easy lead, raising questions about his stamina at 1⅛ miles and beyond and his ability to win without the lead.

Speed Figures & Class: Citizen Bull earned solid speed figures at two (top Equibase 107, comparable Beyer Speed Rating in the mid-90s range) while winning Grade 1 races. This spring his form dipped; he was beaten 9 ¾-lengths by Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert insists the colt wasn’t fully cranked in that prep and expects improvement at Churchill Downs. Still, stretching out to 1¼-miles after weakening at 1⅛-miles is a concern.

Running Style & Post: He’s a confirmed pacesetter who needs the lead to show his best. Breaking from post No.1 could be tricky – no Derby winner has come from the rail since 1986. Baffert has said they will “send aggressively” from the gate, given his inside draw and weaponized early speed. A hot pace is likely with other speed in the field, so Citizen Bull will either have to outsprint them early or rate (an unproven tactic for him). Baffert was going to remove blinkers for the Derby, but with the scratch of his other speed horse Rodriguez, he’s now going to leave them on.

Trainer/Jockey & Prep/Works: Baffert’s confidence and Derby resume speak for themselves, and he entrusts veteran rider Martin Garcia (who piloted many Baffert speed horses). Citizen Bull’s final Santa Anita workout was an eye-catching 5 furlongs in a rapid 58.47 seconds, indicating sharp form. If he breaks and opens up he has a shot to steal the Derby at a nice price.

2. Neoequos (30-1)

Summary: Neoequos has shown tactical speed in Florida prep races but has yet to prove he can finish strongly at classic distances. This colt’s pedigree leans toward middle-distance, and he projects as a pace-pressing longshot who may struggle late in the Derby’s 10 furlongs.

Speed Figures & Class: With a top Equibase figure of 100 (roughly low-90s Beyer), Neoequos has been competitive but not dominant in graded stakes company. He was third in both the Fountain of Youth (1 1/16-miles) and Florida Derby (1⅛-miles) after contesting the early pace. These Grade 2/Grade 1 efforts showed he belongs in the Derby discussion class-wise, but also hinted that he lacks a closing punch beyond a mile.

Running Style & Post: Neoequos typically presses the pace just off the leader. Drawing post No.2, he should save ground into the first turn. However, he could get embroiled in a speed duel if Citizen Bull to his inside and other outside speed horses all gun it. In his recent preps he dueled for the lead and tired late but didn’t quit. A repeat of those performances will likely not be enough to hit the board in a 20-horse Derby with an extra furlong to run. His ability to stay the 1¼-miles is a major question.

Trainer/Jockey & Prep Notes: Saffie Joseph Jr. trains Neoequos and is seeking his first Derby win. Top jockey Luis Saez picks up the mount after originally slated rider Flavien Prat switched to Baeza. Saez is known for aggressive rides, so expect him to hustle Neoequos into a forward position early. Neoequos enters off steady works at Gulfstream Park. All of his recent races were Lasix-free (as Derby preps require, so there’s no medication change factor. He’s a consistent colt, but on paper appears a cut below the top contenders in both speed and stamina. Finishing mid-pack would be a respectable outcome, given the depth of this field.

3. Final Gambit (30-1)

Summary: Final Gambit brings an unusual profile to the Kentucky Derby as the Jeff Ruby Steaks winner who has never raced on dirt. This gray colt showed a terrific late kick over Turfway Park’s synthetic track and has a strong turf pedigree, but the Derby will test whether he can translate that form to Churchill’s dirt. He’s a deep closer with an impressive finishing burst, hoping to emulate Rich Strike’s shocker from the same prep route.

Speed Figures & Class: Final Gambit’s best Equibase figure is a modest 96 (Best Beyer is 90), but that came in the Jeff Ruby, which often produces lower raw times. Importantly, the quality of his win was high, as he roared from last to first, drawing off by 3½ lengths after overcoming trouble at the start. That performance puts him on par with past Derby horses like Rich Strike and Two Phil’s, who similarly exited the Jeff Ruby and ran big in the Derby. Trainer Brad Cox has given Final Gambit only four career starts, but all have been on all-weather or turf surface. Class-wise, he owns a Grade 3 win and 100 Derby points, so he earned his way here. The big “if” is how his form will hold on a new surface against Grade 1 dirt company.

Running Style & Post: He is a deep closer, typically far back early. From post No.3, expect jockey Luan Machado to drop back and angle off the rail to avoid traffic, then attempt one big run. If a blistering pace unfolds (which is possible), Final Gambit could be running past a lot of tired horses late. The Derby’s 1¼-miles might actually suit him. He’s by Not This Time out of a Tapit mare, suggesting stamina. However, the dirt question looms large. Rich Strike proved “anything can happen” with the right setup, so his connections are hoping for a pace meltdown and a clean trip. He’s an intriguing exotics longshot at what should be a huge price.

Trainer/Jockey & Prep Notes: Cox is a capable trainer, and Machado is an experienced Turfway rider but a Derby rookie. Handling the pressure of 150,000 fans and a cavalry charge of 20 horses will be new. The colt’s final work at Churchill was an easy maintenance breeze, indicating Cox is just keeping him happy and fit. Equipment-wise, no changes. Final Gambit offers a true test of surface versatility; if he replicates his synthetic closing kick on dirt, he could outrun his odds. (2025 Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet | America’s Best Racing).

4. Rodriguez – SCRATCHED

5. American Promise (30-1)

Summary: A seasoned colt with the most starts in the field (9), American Promise finally put things together in his last prep. This chestnut son of Justify romped in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby by 7 ¾-lengths, showing a new dimension of early engagement and stamina. Trained by D. Wayne “The Coach” Lukas, who has four Derby wins, American Promise will be fitter than most in here. He adds an old-school feel to the Derby and gives Lukas a shot at an unprecedented fifth victory. He is a pace-pressing type who seems to be peaking at the right time. Though his overall speed figures are just a step below the favorites, he could improve.

Speed Figures & Class: His top Equibase Speed Figure is 102 (two 95 Beyers, too). Earlier in the prep season, American Promise underwhelmed, finishing off the board in the Southwest and Risen Star Stakes. In those races, he faded in the stretch, suggesting distance limitations. However, the big figure he earned in the Virginia Derby indicates improvement; he handled 9 furlongs well and finished strongly. Class-wise, Lukas has campaigned him ambitiously. He’s run in graded stakes at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds and finally notched a stakes win in Maryland. He was not a lock to make the field until late, but his most recent effort says he belongs among the second tier of contenders.

Running Style & Post: American Promise typically races in a forward position, pressing or stalking the pace. In his dominant last win, new rider Nik Juarez sent him early to duel, and the colt responded by drawing off. Breaking from post No.5, he should get a decent spot just behind the speed horses to his inside. If he can reproduce that tactical speed and stay on, he could get first run at the leaders turning for home. The key will be pace. He doesn’t need the lead, but a grueling upfront battle would help his chances to grind into the superfecta. Notably, he has a robust Justify–Tapit pedigree built for 10 furlongs, so distance should not be an issue.

Trainer/Jockey & Other Factors: At 88 years old, Lukas is chasing yet another Derby triumph. He last won the Run for the Roses in 1999. He’s paired this horse with jockey Nik Juarez, who will be riding in his first Derby. Juarez’s bold tactics paid off in the last race, and he’ll likely be aggressive again. No equipment changes are noted. American Promise has been racing without blinkers and obviously without Lasix. His Churchill Downs workouts have been steady. Overall, this colt is an experienced battler who could outrun his odds if he continues his upward form cycle, but he’ll need another career-best to crack the top spots in this deep field.

6. Admire Daytona (30-1)

Summary: One of two international contenders, Admire Daytona punched his Derby ticket with a gutsy win in the UAE Derby in Dubai. This Japanese-bred colt has traveled a long road to Louisville, and the big question is whether he can recover from that taxing effort and handle top U.S. competition. Admire Daytona is a speedy front-runner and will likely be part of the early pace. His overall record in Japan was modest before the UAE Derby, so he’s viewed as an outsider despite his guaranteed spot via the Europe/Mideast Road.

Speed Figures & Class: Admire Daytona’s Equibase figures are listed as “n/a” since he hasn’t raced in North America, but his UAE Derby performance was roughly equivalent to a mid-90s Beyer, not far off some U.S. prep winners. In Dubai, he showed class by dueling on the lead at 1 3/16-miles and fending off multiple challenges to prevail by a nose. Before that, he had only one win in five starts and was beaten by fellow Japanese colt Luxor Cafe in two of their meetings. Class-wise, he has one Grade 2-equivalent win (UAE Derby) and not much else, making him hard to gauge. Historically, UAE Derby winners have struggled in Kentucky.

Running Style & Post: A pure pace horse, Admire Daytona will likely go straight to the front or contest it from post No.6. In the UAE Derby, he broke from the rail and had to hustle to the lead, and now he’s drawn between several U.S. speed horses. Jockey Christophe Lemaire, an international star, knows the colt well and will try to secure a forward position without getting caught in a speed duel. If Admire Daytona gets pressed hard, his chances diminish, as he has never passed a horse in the stretch to win; he either holds on or fades. The Derby distance of 1 ¼-miles could be challenging as well, given his pedigree is tilted toward speed. Expect him to show some early zip, but it would be a surprise to hear his name in contention in the stretch.

Trainer/Jockey & Preparation: Trainer Yukihiro Kato and owner Junko Kondo bring Admire Daytona as a representative of Japan’s growing global racing presence. Lemaire riding is a plus. He’s won major races worldwide and rode this horse in both Japan and Dubai. They’ve kept Admire Daytona at Churchill for training since shipping from Dubai, but the travel and quick turnaround may be significant hurdles. On the equipment/medication side, Japan and UAE don’t use Lasix, so nothing changes, and he wears no blinkers. His final workouts at Churchill have been light, mostly jogging and galloping to maintain condition. In summary, Admire Daytona is a brave colt who earned his way here, but the combination of a tough recent race, a long trip, and pace pressure could make this a difficult assignment.

7. Luxor Café (15-1)

Summary: Luxor Café comes via the Japan Road to the Derby and is considered a stronger contender than the internationally based horses. He’s won four straight races in Japan, including three stakes, and was the top points earner in Japan’s series. Luxor Café brings an impressive résumé and a pedigree blending American Pharoah and More Than Ready, suggesting a nice mix of stamina and versatility. The big question is how his form from Japan will translate to Churchill Downs, as no Japan-based horse has yet won the Derby (though they came close last year). He has a stalking style that could work well from a mid-pack post and is well worth including as a longshot in your exotics based on the predicted pace.

Speed Figures & Class: Equibase doesn’t assign a figure here, but visually, Luxor Café has been very impressive. In his final prep, the 1⅛-mile Fukuryu Stakes, he swept past the field and won by five lengths under mild urging. His competition in Japan may be considered a notch below the top U.S. preps, but 2024 showed that Japan’s best 3-year-olds can be formidable (their colt Forever Young was a close third in Derby 150). Luxor Café’s win streak (4-for-4 on dirt) and earnings of $379k underscore that he’s a class horse. If one converts his Japan speed to approximate Beyers, he likely runs in the mid-90s range, which puts him in the mix for a minor award at least.

Running Style & Post: He typically presses the pace or tracks just behind it. From post No.7, jockey João Moreira can work out a trip either in the second flight or just off the leaders’ flanks. Moreira gave him a masterful ride in the Fukuryu, waited and then pounced around the far turn. One concern is Moreira’s lack of Derby experience and limited U.S. riding exposure. Luxor Café will need to avoid getting shuffled back early in the large field. The new 20-horse gate should help him avoid the old gap at post 14. If he runs to his Japanese form, he could be in contention turning for home. The 1¼-mile distance should not be an issue; his sire American Pharoah won the Derby and his dam’s family has stamina.

Trainer/Jockey & Intangibles: Trainer Noriyuki Hori is highly respected in Japan. Luxor Café represents Japan’s best shot this year and carries the hopes of a nation still seeking that first Derby win. He trains without Lasix (standard in Japan) and wears no blinkers, so no changes there. His stateside training at Churchill has reportedly been smooth. Historically, Japanese horses were 0-for-7 in the Derby before nearly winning in 2024, so momentum is building. If Luxor Café can hold his form and handle the crowded conditions, a top three finish is within reach, and an outright win, while still a tall order, is not out of the question given his dominance overseas.

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8. Journalism (3-1) – Morning-Line Favorite

Summary: Journalism is the deserving favorite, boasting the most complete resume in the field. This well-bred son of Curlin has won four of five starts, including three straight two-turn stakes in California, capped by a hard-fought Santa Anita Derby victory. He consistently posts fast speed figures and has shown versatility and composure, handling adversity and different paces. Trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, Journalism has the tactical running style to secure good position and every indication of handling the Derby distance. In a field of deep closers and need-the-lead types, he stands out as a balanced stalker with a strong finishing kick.

Speed Figures & Class: Journalism brings some of the highest numbers in the field – Equibase top of 110 (and two triple-digit Beyers). He’s run fast and consistently, with each stakes win being more impressive. In the Santa Anita Derby, he overcame being shuffled and still rallied to win by ¾-lengths. That race came against just four rivals but included quality horses like Citizen Bull and Baeza. Prior to that, Journalism won the San Felipe Stakes and the Los Alamitos Futurity, so he’s a Grade 1 winner and multiple Grade 2 winner. His pedigree (Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare) screams classic distance, and he’s done nothing to dissuade that. There are no lapses in form, and no indication he can’t get 10 furlongs.

Running Style & Post: Listed as a stalker, Journalism typically sits in the second flight, not on the led but not too far back. From post No.8, jockey Rispoli can ideally place him around 5th-7th early, just behind the speed horses drawn inside and out. This colt has shown he can navigate through traffic and respond quickly when asked. This professionalism is a key asset, as he won’t waste energy or get rank. In a 20-horse cavalry charge, that could be invaluable. With a projected fast pace, Journalism should get a favorable setup. He’ll be ahead of the deep closers, yet not dueling early. If he runs his typical race, he’ll be looming at the quarter pole, ready to strike. The only minor question is field size; he’s been running in small fields out west, but given his tractability, there’s optimism he’ll handle the crowds just fine.

Trainer/Jockey & Prep/Equipment: Trainer Michael McCarthy won a Derby as an assistant to Todd Pletcher but is seeking his first as head trainer. He already has a Breeders’ Cup Classic under his belt with Knicks Go, and is known for careful preparation. Journalism’s Santa Anita works have been strong, and he arrived at Churchill in peak form. Jockey Umberto Rispoli is also in his first Derby, but he’s been a top rider in California and has clicked well with this colt. Rispoli’s challenge will be to avoid bad luck and workout a good trip in the huge field. No blinkers needed on this focused colt, and he’s been Lasix-free throughout. If he runs to his form, he is very much the horse to beat.

9. Burnham Square (12-1)

Summary: Burnham Square is a late-running gelding who has never run a bad race. Consistency is his hallmark. In six starts, he has 3 wins and 3 placings, and he enters off a narrow win in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. While that victory was by a nose and in a slow time, Burnham Square still earned competitive speed figures from the effort. Trained by Ian Wilkes and ridden by Churchill specialist Brian Hernandez Jr., this gelding could be flying under the radar. He’ll be one of the strongest closers in the field and should relish 1¼-miles. With a hot pace, Burnham Square has a legitimate shot to make noise in the stretch.

Speed Figures & Class: Burnham Square’s top Equibase figure is 104, indicating he’s just a notch below the fastest horses in the Derby, but he often runs in the high 90s to low 100s consistently. His Blue Grass win came with a relatively slow final time, but due to the race shape (he closed from last in a seven-horse field), the speed ratings still came back solid. Importantly, he has proven Grade 1 class and as a 2-year-old he was competitive in stakes. He was also second in the Tampa Bay Derby (on synthetic) before his Blue Grass win. The only gelding in the field, he might just have a little easier time focusing than some in here. His pedigree (by Liam’s Map out of a Scat Daddy mare) isn’t classic, but he’s outrunning any doubts about distance.

Running Style & Post: A confirmed closer, Burnham Square will drop toward the rear early. From post No.9, Hernandez can tuck him in and save ground. He has shown he doesn’t mind being far back. In the Blue Grass, he was dead last early and still got up in time. The key for him will be finding a clear path in the large Derby field when he begins his rally. A fast pace is to his benefit, and it appears likely with many front-runners signed on. If Burnham Square gets an honest pace and avoids traffic trouble, watch for him passing a lot of horses in the last quarter mile. Last year, Hernandez won the Derby with a late runner (Mystik Dan), and he’ll try to replicate that magic here.

Trainer/Jockey & Other Factors: Ian Wilkes (a former assistant to Nafzger of Street Sense fame) knows how to prepare a closer for the Derby. In Burnham Square, he has a genuine contender. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rides Churchill Downs as well as anyone and is fresh off a Derby win last year, giving him confidence. Burnham Square has been training steadily at Churchill, and as a local horse, he’s comfortable on the track. No significant equipment changes. He’s been running without blinkers and of course no Lasix. One could argue that he lacks a flashy speed figure or a marquee win (the Blue Grass was workmanlike), but his steady improvement and suitability to the race conditions make him a very interesting player. Don’t be surprised if this hard-trying gelding is rolling late to grab a piece of the Derby (or even upset if things break perfectly in his favor).

10. Grande – SCRATCHED

11. Flying Mohawk (30-1)

Summary: Flying Mohawk is a deep closer who earned his way to Churchill by running second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway’s synthetic track. He’s a bit of a wild card: a turf/synthetic specialist who has never raced on dirt. His connections are modest. Trainer Whit Beckman and jockey Joseph Ramos are both Derby newcomers, and he’ll be one of the longest shots in the field. Flying Mohawk’s best chance is to hope for an absolute pace meltdown and try to clunk up for a piece late, much like his run at Turfway. However, his pedigree and prior form suggest dirt may not be his preferred surface, making him a true outsider.

Speed Figures & Class: His top Equibase figure is 97, and he has yet to crack the 90 Beyer mark, but he has run respectably on turf and all-weather. He actually started his career on turf at Gulfstream and won two straight turf routes impressively. Switching to synthetic, he maintained his closing style, and in the Jeff Ruby, he rallied from 11th to finish 3½-lengths behind fellow Derby entrant Final Gambit. The Jeff Ruby often comes back a bit slower on the clock, and his speed figure there was not among the top in this field. Class-wise, he hasn’t beaten top horses yet; the second place in a Grade 3 is his biggest accomplishment. On raw ability, he likely falls short of the main contenders, as evidenced by a 7 ¾-length loss to American Promise in an allowance last year (on turf) and being well beaten in the Jeff Ruby by a horse with no dirt form either. His connections recognize his future may lie on turf, but taking a longshot swing at the Derby is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Running Style & Post: Flying Mohawk will drop far back and make one run. He’s a confirmed closer. Breaking from post No.11, expect him to be unhurried and possibly even last early. His hope is for a pace collapse. The Turfway race did feature a pace that collapsed, as the winner came from last, and he came from second-last. Churchill’s dirt surface is a different beast, typically not as kind to extreme closers unless the fractions are truly suicidal. If the track is playing fair and the fractions are quick early, he can start picking off tiring horses. Still, passing 19 rivals is a tall task, and he’ll also need to handle the kickback, which he’s never experienced in a race. His pedigree and dam side lean towards turf, raising doubt about his affinity for dirt. In short, he’ll be doing his best running late, but it might only be visible long after the cameras focus on the winners. Unless, if everything goes perfectly for him.

Trainer/Jockey & Notes: Trainer Whit Beckman is making just his second Derby attempt, and jockey Joe Ramos his first. This team is one of the small guys who are just happy to be in the race. They’ve reportedly been schooling Flying Mohawk in the starting gate and with dirt kickback in morning gallops to prepare him. The horse will run without blinkers (as he always has) and without Lasix (he hasn’t used it in stakes). If we hear Flying Mohawk’s name during the race broadcast, it will probably be very late in the stretch, along with other closers, which would imply a pace meltdown of epic proportions. More likely, he’s a participant who will gain experience and move back to turf later. Anything better than a finish in the 10th-15th range would be a win for him and his connections in spirit. Also, be sure to check out our article on how to profit using trainer and jockey information.

12. East Avenue (20-1)

Summary: East Avenue is a speedy colt representing Godolphin and trainer Brendan Walsh. As a 2-year-old, he was among the best of his crop, winning two stakes including the Grade Breeders’ Futurity before a troubled trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His 3-year-old season started disappointingly (a dull effort in the Risen Star), but he regained form in the Blue Grass Stakes, nearly taking it wire-to-wire and just getting nipped at the finish. East Avenue adds an interesting pace element to the Derby and he’s shown he can blast off early. With the addition of blinkers for that last race, he ran his best race yet. If he continues that trajectory, he could be a dangerous longshot, especially if he shakes loose up front. On the other hand, a crowded Derby field and extra distance could expose his earlier frailties.

Speed Figures & Class: East Avenue’s top Equibase figure is 104, which is in the competitive range. He earned that with his Blue Grass runner-up, where he set fast fractions and fought on gamely to just miss, earning a 96 Beyer. That race showed he may still have Grade 1 ability. At two, he was a top juvenile until the Breeders’ Cup, where a stumbled start ruined his chances. Dismissing his poor Risen Star effort as perhaps a fluke or needing blinkers, his form line is strong. It’s notable that he is a half-brother to 2023 Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish, indicating a rich pedigree and class. Stamina-wise, his sire Medaglia d’Oro, and damsire Ghostzapper both won at classic distances, so there is every reason to believe 10 furlongs is within reach. If anything, his issue might be mental focus, which blinkers seem to have helped.

Running Style & Post: East Avenue is one of the likely pacesetters. With blinkers on, he showed blazing early speed in the Blue Grass. From post No.12, he’s drawn outside most of the other speed (Citizen Bull in 1, Neoequos 2, Admire Daytona 6, and Owen Almighty 20). Jockey Manny Franco will probably send him and try to clear or sit just off Citizen Bull. He nearly pulled off a gate-to-wire win at 1⅛-miles last time, so the strategy may be to try and steal this. However, doing so in a 20-horse Derby is tough. If he gets hooked into a duel, his chances diminish. The new blinkers clearly sharpened him up, but he’ll need to harness that speed. If somehow he secures an uncontested lead (not impossible but unlikely given the lineup), he becomes very dangerous. Otherwise, he might ensure an honest pace and hope to hang on for a piece. Notably, East Avenue’s historical post 12 is fine, and front-running types have won the Kentucky Derby as the lone speed. The presence of multiple pace players suggests he won’t be alone, though.

Trainer/Jockey & Prep: Brendan Walsh has quietly become a top trainer. Godolphin seeks its first Derby win outright, and East Avenue carries their royal blue silks. Manny Franco is still hunting his first Derby win; he’s a solid New York rider who has experience in this race. East Avenue’s final drills at Keeneland were quick, indicating he’s still in sharp form. No Lasix, as per usual for stakes now. East Avenue is a live longshot if he can replicate his last race. He improved with the blinkers and nearly upset in a major prep. If left alone on the lead, he could outrun expectations; if not, he’s still likely to be part of the pace scenario to the final turn.

13. Publisher (20-1)

Summary: Publisher holds the dubious distinction of being a maiden (winless) in the Derby field. Despite that, this colt trained by Steve Asmussen has been remarkably consistent, finishing in the money in 5 of 7 starts. He earned his way here by closing for second in the Arkansas Derby behind Sandman. Publisher is a closer who often makes a late run but it hasn’t been enough. He’ll hope to change that narrative on Derby day, but realistically he looks more like a candidate to maybe hit the superfecta at best, given his lack of a winning kick so far. Still, with a fast pace, he could pick up tired horses and who knows – maybe break his maiden on the sport’s biggest stage.

Speed Figures & Class: His best Equibase figure is 100 and his best Beyer is a 95, which is solid but not outstanding. Publisher’s last three starts have been in graded stakes. He has multiple third place finishes in Derby prep races and his close second in the Arkansas Derby give him a decent class rating. However, the fact remains he hasn’t won a race, indicating he’s been a notch below the winners. In the Arkansas Derby, he followed Sandman’s move and couldn’t quite menace him, losing by 2 ½-lengths. Earlier in the year, he was bumped in the Southwest Stakes and ended up seventh (placed sixth), so one could excuse that. But even in allowance/maiden races, he’s been second multiple times. It might be a psychological or talent ceiling issue. Historically, only three maidens have ever won the Derby, the last in 1933, so he’s bucking a tough trend. Asmussen is still seeking his firs Derby win, making Publisher an unlikely candidate to deliver it.

Running Style & Post: Publisher is a closer, typically coming from far back or mid-pack. From post No.13, top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will likely take him back and save ground. He doesn’t have enough early speed to get involved in any pace skirmishes. His path to victory would entail a very fast pace setting up and him finding an unencumbered lane to charge late. The good news is there should be ample pace. The challenge is there are other closers with better figs and perhaps a stronger finishing punch. In a race like the Derby, sometimes a plodder like Publisher can clunk up for third or fourth as the truly fast horses exhaust themselves. If the pace collapses, he could definitely be running on. But to actually win, he’d need to both improve and have all the stars align. His post 13 is fine, middle of the gate, so he should avoid any rail squeeze and just drop in behind the first wave.

Trainer/Jockey & Equipment: Steve Asmussen’s quest for a Kentucky Derby continues, and Publisher gives Asmussen an elusive Derby chance. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is a strong finisher and perhaps can coax a bit extra from Publisher in the lane. He’s known to weave through traffic fearlessly, which might be needed here. Publisher races with blinkers off (he’s never used them) and obviously no Lasix. Interestingly, his sire American Pharoah won the Derby and his damsire Proud Citizen was second in the Derby, so there is Derby in his blood. Ultimately, Publisher is a horse who will be plugging away late hoping to hit the board. If he wins, it would be a truly historic upset for a maiden. More likely, he could help complete the superfecta at big odds if the race falls apart enough up front and he finally times his move perfectly.

14. Tiztastic (20-1)

Summary: Tiztastic comes off a breakthrough victory in the Louisiana Derby, which punched his ticket to Churchill. Before that, he was often in the mix but hadn’t won a prep race, finishing in the money several times. Steve Asmussen trains this colt as well (one of two for him along with Publisher), and top jockey Joel Rosario will ride. Tiztastic is a closer with a strong pedigree for distance. The Louisiana Derby was at 1 3/16-miles, so he’s already shown he can handle a route of ground. The key for him will be whether that last win was a new higher level of form or just a perfect-trip situation in which the fast pace totally collapsed. If he’s truly improving, he could be an upset contender who picks off the leaders late. If not, he might struggle to crack the top spots and be more of a bottom-of-exotics player.

Speed Figures & Class: Tiztastic’s Equibase top is 99 and his best Beyer is 95. Even his Louisiana Derby win wasn’t exceptionally fast on figures; it was more workmanlike, earned with a smart ride. Prior to that, he was competitive but not winning in races like the Risen Star (3rd) and Lecomte (2nd). One could argue he faced slightly weaker competition in Louisiana compared to Florida or Arkansas, but he did beat Chunk of Gold by 2½-lengths. The concern is he hasn’t put up a fast race yet, and he’ll likely need a career-best figure to win the Derby. On the plus side, he’s bred to keep improving with time and distance.

Running Style & Post: A closer, Tiztastic will drop toward the back early and make one sustained run. From post No.14, Rosario can take him over to the rail behind the speed horses and save ground, which was the successful formula in Louisiana. In that race, Rosario saved ground then swung out at the right time. A similar patient approach will be used here. Tiztastic doesn’t have a big turn of foot like some closers (e.g., Sandman), but he has a grinding finish that can wear down horses late. If the early fractions are hot, he’ll be one of many coming from the clouds. He may not have the acceleration to outkick a horse like Sandman, but if that one encounters trouble or moves too late, Tiztastic could be alongside in the final furlong. Asmussen’s horses often run without blinkers (Publisher and Tiztastic both do), focusing on relaxed early, strong late. That will be the plan, and he and his stablemate Publisher could actually be rallying together. The Derby distance should be fine, he’s run 1 3/16-miles already and is bred a mile and a half.

Trainer/Jockey & Prep: Asmussen, as mentioned, is still seeking his first Derby win. Rosario is a Hall of Fame jockey who has won the Derby (2013 Orb) and is known for timing late runs well. He gave Tiztastic a great trip last out and will try to replicate that. Tiztastic’s training at Churchill has been uneventful but solid. He’s a laid-back horse in the mornings, indicating he’ll conserve energy for the race. No medication or equipment changes of note; he’s been off Lasix in all stakes and has never worn blinkers. Upsetting the Derby will require him to step up significantly, but given his trajectory and stout pedigree, a piece of the pie (third or fourth) is not out of the question should the race set up favorably.

15. Render Judgment (30-1)

Summary: Render Judgment is a late closer trained by Ken McPeek, and he has shown some improvement recently with the addition of blinkers in his last two starts. However, he’s only a maiden winner with one victory in seven tries, and his speed figures and margins of defeat are on the lower end of this field. Render Judgment had to scramble to get in, but he will need a monumental step forward to be a factor. Most likely, he’s aiming to pass tired horses and perhaps finish in the middle of the pack.

Speed Figures & Class: Render Judgment’s top Equibase figure is 98 and his top Beyer is 90, placing him near the bottom by numbers. He’s been consistently a cut below the winners in prep races; for instance, he was a distant second beaten 7 ¾- lengths to American Promise in the 1⅛-mile Virginia Derby. In five Derby prep attempts, he hit the board multiple times but often by picking up pieces well behind dominant winners and he never truly threatened to win at that level. It’s fair to say his form is a notch below Derby quality. On the bright side, since adding blinkers two races ago, he’s been a bit closer up and held his own late. But even those improved efforts need improving on. Class-wise, he’s yet to win a stakes. His lone win is an allowance race at Oaklawn.

Running Style & Post: Render Judgement is a closer. With blinkers on, he gets more engaged early, but he still doesn’t have any early speed. From post No.15, expect jockey Julien Leparoux to drop him toward the back and to the inside. He’ll hope for a meltdown up front. In a best-case scenario, maybe he clunks along and passes fading horses to crack the top ten or even sneak into superfecta contention if a lot of things go awry for others. His late run is steady but not explosive, so he really needs the leaders to come back to him. Fortunately for him, the Derby pace could be very fast, which gives an opening for even the long-winded late runners to make some ground. Still, comparing closers, others like Sandman, Sovereignty, Tiztastic have shown more turn of foot and class. Render Judgment will likely be one of the last coming into view.

Trainer/Jockey & Other Factors: Ken McPeek did win last year’s Derby with a 10-1 shot, so he knows how to shock the experts. Leparoux is an experienced rider who’s had Derby mounts before, though he’s never won it. They’ll be treating this as a nothing-to-lose situation. The blinkers have helped him focus, but that won’t likely be enough. He continues with them here. Of course, no Lasix in preps, so no changes there. Render Judgment’s best hope is to run the race of his life while others misfire. The reality is his speed figures and record aren’t good enough. A finish in the top half would be a moral victory. Anything more would be a true fairy tale, akin to Mine That Bird’s 50-1 shocker, and even Mine That Bird had won multiple races before. So, while we never say never in the Derby, this colt’s expectations should be tempered.

16. Coal Battle (30-1)

Summary: Coal Battle comes into the Derby as a Cinderella story. He hails from a smaller circuit, is trained by Louisiana-based Lonnie Briley, and owned by a modest outfit. Yet he’s compiled an impressive 5 wins in 8 starts, including the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, and earned his spot with a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. This hardy colt is a versatile stalker who always shows up with a fight. While on paper his speed figures are a bit below the top contenders, he is agile, and he has a turn of foot he can use anytime. He also has a gritty attitude and knows how to win. The Derby’s 10 furlongs might test his pedigree’s limits, but as Rich Strike proved in 2022, sometimes heart and trip can trump figures. Coal Battle will try to outrun his long odds and at least grab a piece late to reward his connections’ Derby dream.

Speed Figures & Class: His best Equibase figure is 104, and his best Beyer is a 91, which puts him on the cusp of being competitive here. He earned his top figures in his Rebel Stakes win. In the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby (1⅛ miles), he ran third behind Sandman and Publisher after chasing a sizzling pace and moving far too early. Class-wise, he’s a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed, not unlike many Derby winners. The main question is whether he has another gear speed-wise that can class up with horses like Journalism or Sovereignty?

Running Style & Post: Coal Battle is a stalker who can also sit midpack, and he does have speed if he needs it. He won the Rebel by coming from slightly off the pace on a sloppy track, and in the Arkansas Derby he stalked and kept on for third. From post No.16, jockey Juan Vargas will likely aim to drop in around 6th-9th early, avoiding being caught too wide on the first turn. Vargas is not a household name, but he’s ridden Coal Battle regularly and knows his tendencies. Coal Battle is the type to make an early move if the pace is moderate, or wait and grind if the pace is hot. He has options. The Derby distance might be stretching his pedigree, so Vargas might try to delay his rally and not move too soon. If Coal Battle is in contention at the top of the stretch, he will battle bravely, he’s shown he won’t quit. Whether that’s enough to crack the superfecta is uncertain. He might be one that’s still hanging around at the finish, even if a few flashier horses go by him.

Trainer/Jockey & Story: Lonnie Briley and owner Norman Stables are living the Derby dream. The Derby often has a Cinderella horse, and Coal Battle fits that bill. These connections will relish the moment, and the horse’s toughness gives them hope of a respectable showing. His training at Churchill has been straightforward. He’s reportedly handled the surface fine and continues to show a competitive spark in morning gallops. No new equipment. He runs sans blinkers as he has been. Naturally, no Lasix in preps. As the analysis noted, often these Cinderella horses aren’t given much of a shot, and this horse has earned his. Coal Battle brings better credentials than many past longshots, a Grade 2 win and consistent record. While a win would be a shock, hitting the board isn’t out of the realm of possibility if the race falls apart. At a minimum, expect him to run his honest race and not be intimidated. A top-half finish would already be a feel-good outcome, and sneaking into a trifecta or superfecta spot would be wonderful for his blue-collar connections.

17. Sandman (6-1)

Summary: Sandman is one of the premier closers in this field and comes in off a stylish victory in the Arkansas Derby. This gray colt finally delivered on the promise he’d shown, roaring from well back to win by 2 ½-lengths at Oaklawn. Trained by Mark Casse, Sandman has been steadily improving and has proven he can handle distance. The Arkansas Derby was his first try at 1 ⅛-miles, and he excelled. With a strong pace anticipated, Sandman’s late kick could be devastating in the Derby. He will, however, have to overcome the historical curse of post No.17, and more practically, he must work out a trip weaving through 19 rivals. If he gets an unobstructed run, Sandman absolutely has the talent to win it all.

Speed Figures & Class: Sandman’s Equibase top is 104, and he’s run around that level multiple times. His most recent Beyer figure of 99 puts him solidly in the win mix. In terms of class, he had multiple stakes placings before his Grade 1 breakthrough. In the Arkansas Derby, he beat a solid field (including Publisher and Coal Battle) with authority. Earlier in the year, he had been hitting the board in stakes without winning but always coming with a late run. Now that he’s figure it out, the confidence of his connections is high. His pedigree is rich in stamina and class, but he does race a bit greenly at times. That hints he’s still learning, and the Derby is not exactly the race to learn in, but the upside is huge.

Running Style & Post: Sandman is a deep closer. In the nine-horse Arkansas Derby, he was eighth early. In a 20-horse Derby, he might be even further back early. Jockey Jose Ortiz will need to navigate patiently from post No.17, which is the second slot in the new auxiliary gate. The good news is he’s toward the outside, so Ortiz can drop back and angle toward the rail behind the main pack to save ground. The challenge will be picking the right moment and path to weave through traffic. Sandman’s acceleration is strong, but he does take a while to fully hit top gear. Ortiz might consider moving a bit earlier than usual to avoid getting stuck, but that might take way from his late kick. Tough call. Sandman will likely be passing horses alongside others, but he’ll need to outkick Sovereignty and Tiztastic among others, who will rally too. If the pace melts and he finds daylight by the quarter pole, his late run could be devastating, but any check in momentum could derail him. With him, trip is everything. As for the historical footnote, post 17 has never produced a Derby winner.

Trainer/Jockey & Prep: Mark Casse has a pair of Belmont Stakes wins but is seeking his first Derby. He’s had closers hit the board here before. Jose Ortiz, an Eclipse Award-winning jockey, was back aboard Sandman when he won the Arkansas Derby and will know how to time Sandman’s move. Sandman’s training at Churchill has been uneventful; he had a maintenance work and galloped strongly. No equipment changes, he doesn’t wear blinkers, as they want him to relax early. Naturally, no Lasix needed. Bottom line: Sandman is one of the most exciting closers in the race and has “flashy” appeal. If a ferocious pace materializes, look for him storming down the center of the track late, and it will be up to Ortiz to steer him through the maze. He’s a top win contender with a clean trip.

18. Sovereignty (5-1)

Summary: Sovereignty has been a buzz horse since last fall. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott for Godolphin, this well-bred colt won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and was a close second in the Florida Derby. He’s been ultra-consistent and he has a win over the Churchill Downs track in the Street Sense Stakes last year. Sovereignty is a closer, though not as deep as Sandman. He tends to stay midpack and then unleash a run. With Junior Alvarado back in the irons after a minor injury kept him out of the Florida Derby, Sovereignty looks poised for a peak effort. He’s got stamina, class, and experience on his side. If he can navigate the traffic, he has a big chance to give Mott a Derby win.

Speed Figures & Class: Sovereignty’s top Equibase figure is 99 and his top Beyer is a 95, which seems a tad light, but we get the feeling Mott and his horse have been pointing for the Derby ever since the Street Sense. In terms of class, he is a Grade 2 winner (Fountain of Youth) and Grade 1 placed (Florida Derby). In the Florida Derby, he closed late but couldn’t catch Tappan Street, finishing second by 1 ¼-lengths. That’s still a strong effort considering Tappan Street went off as second favorite. As a 2-year-old, he came with a big late run and drew off to win the Street Sense by five lengths, showing an affinity for the track. He’s also royally bred with a combination of speed and stamina influences. There’s little to criticize in his record. He’s done everything right except losing one prep by a small margin. If there’s any nitpick, his speed figures suggest he might need to improve a couple of points to match Journalism or Sandman at their best. But the potential is there for that kind of jump in his third start of the year.

Running Style & Post: Sovereignty runs as a closer/late runner, but he doesn’t drop as far back as horses like Sandman or Publisher. In a typical race, he might sit around 8th early, then make a move. From post No.18, Alvarado may opt to ease him behind and toward the rail to save ground, likely ending up in the back half early. His early positioning might mirror how Epicenter ran in 2022, midpack then moving. Being drawn 18 means he must avoid losing too much ground on the first turn, so expect him to tuck in. Sovereignty’s key will be finding clear running in the stretch. In the Fountain of Youth, he got a dream inside run to win. In the Florida Derby, with Alvarado out, he had to swing wide and came up short. Alvarado knows him best and will be keen to time the ride perfectly. This colt has a strong sustained drive rather than an instant turn-of-foot, so a bit like Sandman, he’ll need to start rolling by the 3/8ths pole. One advantage, he’s shown he can handle Churchill’s surface, which some horses dislike. Traffic luck aside, there’s, he simply straightforward and reliable. Assuming an honest pace, Sovereignty should be flying down the lane with a big shot.

Trainer/Jockey & X-factors: Bill Mott is one of the most decorated trainers in the game. He technically won a Derby via Country House’s DQ, but he’d surely love to actually win the race without a DQ. This might be Mott’s best Derby chance since that 2019. Jockey Junior Alvarado is Mott’s go-to rider and is hungry for his first Derby victory. Sovereignty has been training sharply at Churchill. His workouts have been methodical, and he gallops out strongly, indicating he’s thriving. No equipment changes; he runs with no blinkers and relaxes well. And obviously no Lasix in stakes. Given his impeccable record, classy pedigree, and strong connections, Sovereignty is a top win candidate. He checks a lot of boxes: Churchill experience, can handle kickback, can navigate through horses, bred for the distance, consistent performer, and a top trainer. If he gets a clear shot turning for home, don’t be surprised if he’s the one wearing the roses.

19. Chunk of Gold (30-1)

Summary: Chunk of Gold is another feel-good story in this Derby. Bought for only $2,500 as a yearling, he has massively outrun his humble beginnings. This gray colt has finished first or second in all four of his starts, including runner-up efforts in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby behind top horses. Trained by Ethan West for owner Terry Stephens, Chunk of Gold is a later-developing closer/stalker who just keeps improving. He doesn’t have the flashy speed figures of the favorites and was beaten soundly by Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby, but he’s an honest competitor. Stamina should be a strong suit, as his pedigree suggests he’ll get the 10 furlongs of the Derby. If a pace meltdown occurs, he could clunk up for a share. Winning might be a stretch without a significant move forward, but don’t discount his chances to hit the board at a huge price given his steady progression.

Speed Figures & Class: Chunk of Gold’s top Equibase figure is 96, and his top Beyer is a 92, which is on the lower side here. However, those numbers have been climbing, and his second in the Louisiana Derby was probably his career best. In that race, he was only 2 ¼-lengths behind Tiztastic. a credible effort in a 12-horse field. Notably, he was 9¾ lengths behind the freak winner of the Risen Star (Magnitude), so when the winner is exceptional he’s been left, but against more ordinary competition he’s right there. He’s still only a maiden winner over the synthetic at Turfway, but has hit the board in multiple graded stakes and proven he belongs in terms of class exposure. The question is whether he can step up to beat Grade 1 winners here. His consistent record speaks to his reliability. He has a solid dose of stamina in his pedigree, and that never hurts in the Derby.

Running Style & Post: A stalker/closer, Chunk of Gold tends to sit midpack and grind into contention. In the Risen Star and LA Derby, he wasn’t far off the leaders, more of a stalking trip before rallying for second. From post No.19, jockey Jareth Loveberry might choose to drop in behind the first flight and try to secure some position around mid-field. Loveberry rode 2023 Derby runner-up Two Phil’s, so he has experience with a longshot hitting the board. He might attempt a similar trip, save ground, wait, and come through late. Chunk of Gold is not a rapid accelerator, but he stays on. With 1 ¼-miles to run, he’ll have plenty of stretch to make his move. If the pace is quick, he can come from further back; if it’s moderate, he might sit closer. Versatility is a plus. One thing is sure, he’ll keep grinding down the lane, and he hasn’t shown any quit. Given his lack of early speed, he will need to avoid losing too much ground from that outside post initially. But the new single starting gate should help him drop in by the first turn.

Trainer/Jockey & Other Notes: Ethan West and owner Terry Stephens are enjoying a Cinderella ride. Chunk of Gold’s rise from a $2,500 sale to Derby contender is the stuff of dreams. The horse himself doesn’t know his price, he’s got the heart and, importantly, he’s got the pedigree to stay the distance. He’s training well at Churchill, showing energy in his gallops. Equipment: no blinkers (doesn’t seem to need them) and he races without Lasix like the rest. If you’re looking for a superfecta bomb, Chunk of Gold might be it. He’d need to improve quite a bit to actually win, but if some of the favorites falter, he could absolutely pick up a placing. He’s a testament to how an underdog can make it to the big dance, and he’ll try to make the most of it with another honest effort.

20. Owen Almighty (30-1)

Summary: Owen Almighty is a speedball who earned his Derby spot with a front-running tour-de-force in the Tampa Bay Derby. After that win, even his trainer Brian Lynch had doubts about stretching him out further, as the colt’s pedigree and running style make him look like a miler. Those doubts seemed founded when Owen Almighty tried the Blue Grass Stakes at 9 furlongs and faded to finish sixth. Initially, the plan was to skip the Derby, but the allure got his connections. Now drawn in the far outside post (No.20), Owen Almighty’s mission is clear. Break fast, clear as much of the field as possible, and hope to hang on for as long as he can. He’s almost certain to be among the early leaders. The likelihood is that he will set the pace or press it and then retreat when the real running begins, given the distance challenges. Still, he’s a three-time winner and has high-class connections, including jockey Javier Castellano, who is fresh off a Derby win last year) He could influence the race by ensuring a quick early tempo.

Speed Figures & Class: Owen Almighty’s top Equibase figure is 98 and his top Beyer is the 93 he earned winning the Tampa Bay Derby. That race was visually impressive as he led all the way and won by 3½ lengths. The form didn’t hold. He couldn’t last the 1 ⅛-miles of the Blue Grass, finishing sixth after being up near the pace. Class-wise, the Tampa Bay Derby was a Grade 2. He’s certainly a quality speed horse at middle distances, but 10 furlongs against this caliber seems beyond his scope from post No.20. His connections even publicly doubted his Derby suitability due to distance. At best, his camp can hope he runs back to his Tampa effort and maybe lasts for a minor award if the track is favoring speed.

Running Style & Post: Owen Almighty is a pacesetter/pace presser type. From post No.20, there’s no figuring out his strategy. Castellano will gun him and go early. The one advantage of post 20 is he won’t get hung wide on the first turn if he clears. He’ll either be in front of the pack or stuck outside of a couple of speed horses if he can’t clear. Given his sharp early foot, he might actually cross over a bunch of them by the turn. But doing so likely means expending a lot of energy. We can expect to see Citizen Bull, East Avenue, Admire Daytona, and Owen Almighty all vying for that early lead. If Owen is intent on it, he could ensure a very fast pace. Anticipate Owen Almighty showing prominently for maybe 3/4 of a mile or a mile. After that, the field will probably swallow him up. That said, Big Brown won from post 20 in 2008 with a similar early move, but Big Brown was a different caliber of horse.

Trainer/Jockey & Final Prep: Brian Lynch is a very good trainer who generally knows what he has and his initial reluctance to go to the Derby was revealing. The owners wanting to run means Owen Almighty is here more on a wing and a prayer. Castellano, however, is a master jockey and finally won his first Derby last year (with Mage). He’ll try to work some magic again, but this time on a horse with a very different profile. Castellano might try to nurse his speed, maybe not go blazing, but moderate the fractions if possible. Still, with other speeds present, he can’t exactly go slow. Owen’s workouts have been fine, and he’s healthy. Equipment-wise, no changes; he doesn’t wear blinkers (perhaps surprisingly, given his speed). Ultimately, his presence ensures pace. If somehow he were to get loose on a soft pace, which is unlikely in this field, then maybe he could hang around longer than expected. Logic points to him giving a bold sight early and then retreating.

21. Baeza (12-1)

Summary: Baeza is the new face in the Derby, drawing in from the also-eligible list after Rodriguez’s scratch. And he might be the most intriguing wild card of all. Lightly raced with only four starts, Baeza has blossomed in his last two, including an eye-opening runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby, where he nearly beat Journalism. Trained by John Shirreffs, who won the Derby in 2005 with monster longshot Giacomo and also trained super mare Zenyatta, Baeza is in great hands, and he’s now to be ridden by Flavien Prat. Baeza has sky-high potential and his pedigree is pure gold, by McKinzie out of a mare (Puca) who produced 2023 Derby winner Mage. He was a $1.2 million yearling and is finally living up to the billing. He’s the wise guy horses for the Derby now. The main knock on Baeza is experience. With only one win (a maiden), how will he handle the chaos of a 20-horse field? If he can, his talent indicates he could be a major factor.

Speed Figures & Class: Baeza’s top Equibase figure is a 107 and his Beyer comes in at a triple-digit 101, which puts him among the best in the field on numbers. He earned that big number in the Santa Anita Derby, where he dueled the length of the stretch with Journalism and only lost by 3/4 of a length. That performance was a huge leap forward. Prior to that, he won a one-mile maiden race by almost 5 lengths. His earlier two starts as a 2-year-old were in-the-money but nothing spectacular, but he appears to be a new horse now. Class-wise, he technically has no stakes wins, but anyone who saw his last race would agree he ran a Grade 1 quality race. His lineage screams class too. He’s a half-brother to Mage (the previous Derby winner) and Belmont winner Dornoch. If Baeza runs back to his Santa Anita effort or moves forward off it, he’s fast enough to contend for the win.

Running Style & Post: Baeza is a stalker by nature, but he can also stay close to the pace, as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. In the Derby, from post No.21, he will likely be kept in the clear and allowed to find a comfortable position maybe mid-pack or slightly better. Flavien Prat is an excellent tactical rider and will be familiar with Baeza. He rode him early in his career and now gets back on. Breaking from the outside, Prat can see how the pace unfolds inside and decide to either tuck in or even move up and drop behind the first flight if there’s a gap. One worry is that Baeza hasn’t faced a large field. He’ll see a wall of horses and a lot more kickback here. How he handles that is unknown. But his demeanor in his last race was very professional, and he was gutsy when challenged in the stretch. If he navigates the first turn without losing too much ground, he has the talent to be in the top tier turning for home. Being the literal outside horse, he won’t likely be boxed in, and Prat can keep him in clear lanes, which could be an advantage in avoiding traffic.

Trainer/Jockey & X-Factors: John Shirreffs is known for huge upsets – Giacomo at 50-1 in 2005, and of course, he trained the great Zenyatta. He’s patient and methodical, which is why Baeza only has 4 starts. He’s brought this colt along the way he did Giacomo (who also had only one win entering the Derby). Flavien Prat coming aboard is significant; he’s one of the best in the world and has Derby experience (one win via DQ). Baeza’s training since getting into the field has been just maintaining fitness. He worked at Santa Anita before shipping and looked sharp. There’s a sense of destiny or excitement around him, and being a half-brother to Mage makes him even more exciting. No equipment changes – he’s been racing without blinkers and that seems to have worked wonders for settling him. In terms of Lasix, he’s never run on it (California doesn’t allow in stakes). The bottom line is that Baeza is the kind of late entrant that could shake up the Derby. His Santa Anita Derby was no fluke, and now, with Prat and a decent draw (even if far outside, at least he won’t get squeezed), he’s got every chance to make an impact. If he continues his upward trajectory, a win is not out of the question, and at worst, he seems a strong contender to hit the board. Keep an eye on this buzz horse as they load. He might just prove the last in can be first out.

10-Deep Safety Net Kentucky Derby Superfecta Box

For players who want to blanket the likely outcome yet still keep the ticket count manageable.

Why a 10-horse box?

• With the 20-horse Derby field, a four‑horse superfecta box runs $24 at the $1 level; a 10‑horse box costs $504 ($1) or $50.40 at the 10‑cent minimum.
• It more than halves your risk compared with boxing the entire field but still captures > 95 % of realistic win‑place‑show‑fourth scenarios.

Below are the 10 horses we would include, sorted by their most likely role in the outcome and why they make the cut. Horses left out either have severe distance, trip, or figure liabilities. If you want, you can capture them using an ALL leg on your trifecta and superfecta tickets, which we also highly recommend if you’re trying to hit a lottery-size ticket.

Prime Keys:

• No.8 Journalism (3-1) – Tactical, consistent triple‑digit figs, clean center draw – most reliable top‑four finisher.
• No.18 Sovereignty (5-1) – Hall of Fame trainer, Churchill win at 2, elegant late grinder; always fires.

Late Kick Threats:

• No.17 Sandman (6-1) – Arkansas Derby rocket; biggest late punch in the race.
• No.9 Burnham Square (12-1) – Gelding never off board; true 10‑furlong closer.
• No.21 Baeza (12-1) – Lightly raced ceiling; 107 Equibase vs. Journalism; half‑brother to Mage.

Versatile Stalkers:

• No.7 Luxor Café (15-1) – Japan’s top hope, 4‑for‑4 on dirt, pressing style fits any pace.
• No.10 Grande (20-1) – Pletcher/Velazquez upside; 106 fig in Wood on 3rd career start.

Pace and Peeling Back Insurance:

• No.1 Citizen Bull (20-1) – Rail speed could stick for a piece if he clears or rates.
• No.12 East Avenue (20-1) – Blinkers‑on Blue Grass near‑miss shows renewed vigor; can wire or hang for 3rd/4th.

Blue Caller Worker:

• No.16 Coal Battle (30-1) – 5‑for‑8 winner, never quits; perfect type to grab super‑4 at 30‑1 when others falter.

Why Not The Others?

• No.2 Neoequos (30-1), No.6 Admire Daytona (30-1), No.20 Owen Almighty (30-1) – Need‑the‑lead types likely to crack under projected sub‑:46 half‑mile.
• No.5 American Promise (30-1), No.14 Tiztastic (20-1) – Improving but figures ~5 pts short; wide closers who may be too late.
• No.3 Final Gambit (30-1), No.11 Flying Mohawk (30-1) – All‑weather/turf closers with zero dirt form; conversion risk too high.
• No.13 Publisher (30-1), No.15 Render Judgment (30-1), No.19 Chunk of Gold (30-1) – Maiden status (Publisher) or sub‑100 figs; need career‑best + meltdown.

2025 Kentucky Derby Summary

The 151st Kentucky Derby shapes up as a clash between the high-class stalker Journalism, the herd of powerful closers led by Sovereignty, Sandman, Burnham Square, Baeza, Tiztastic, and the speed horses trying to steal it, Citizen Bull, East Avenue, Admire Daytona and Owen Almighty. The pace scenario favors those coming from off the pace, but anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby!

If Journalism can work out a trip, he’s the horse to beat on paper, with speed, class, and poise. And keep a close eye on Sovereignty, his blend of Churchill prowess and steady closing kick under Bill Mott’s guidance might give him the edge when the dust settles. And if you’re looking for the “wow” upset, Baeza could be that storybook Derby horse, lightly raced, tons of talent, just getting good at the right time.

No matter what, this field’s depth ensures an unpredictable and exciting race. The Derby gods may smile on a longshot or affirm the brilliance of a favorite. As always, racing luck and trip dynamics will play a huge role. A wide move, a rail split, or a steadied stride can make or break a dream in seconds.

The Kentucky Derby represents a chance to win a lottery of sorts. The average superfecta payout over the past decade is something like $9,000, but it has paid six figures on more than one occasion. Why not win that one? Don’t be afraid to use ALL in some legs of your trifectas and superfectas.

Get ready for a thrilling Run for the Roses, and may the best horse (you bet on) win! Check out our list of places to bet the Kentucky Derby online.