2025 Preakness Stakes (G1) Picks and Analysis
Pimlico Race Course, Race 13, Saturday, May 17, 2025
Purse: $2,000,000, Surface: Dirt, Distance: 1 3/16 Miles, Post Time: 7:01 p.m. ET
Preakness Stakes Picks
- No.2 Journalism (8-5)
- No.9 Gosger (20-1)
- No.7 Sandman (4-1)
- No.4 Heart of Honor (12-1)
Preakness Stakes Longshots
No.3 American Promise (15-1), No.5 Pay Billy (20-1)
Preakness Stakes Analysis
The 150th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday lacks the Kentucky Derby winner but makes up for it with an intriguing group of speed horses, stalkers, and closers that sets up several ways to bet.
We’ve landed on No.2 Journalism as the horse to beat, but he’s going to be a short price. We’re playing this race as if a duel will develop early. If it doesn’t, our picks, besides Journalism, will have a tough time getting the job done.
We aren’t as confident here as we were with our big scores in past preps, but that’s part of the game. When you’ve got house money, sometimes it’s worth firing on some creative tickets, especially in a race where the pace scenario could crack open for a surprise.
Horse-by-horse analysis by post position follows below.
No.1 Goal Oriented (6-1) wired an allowance field on Derby Day in the slop, earning a modest speed figure but showing determination. He’s lightly raced for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race eight times. From the rail, you can bet Flavien Prat will send hard to try to grab the lead. If he clears or gets brave on the front end, he could prove tough to pass late. He needs to improve to win, and we’re not sure he wants to go this far, but with rain expected for Saturday, he has a chance.
No.2 Journalism (8-5) is the clear standout on paper. He’s been brilliant all season, losing for the first time this year in the Derby when he finished a good second. He has the highest speed figures, a perfect running style to sit just behind the leaders, and comes in looking sharp. He’s 8-5 on the morning line and likely goes off shorter. He’s the horse to beat, but he won’t offer much value.
No.3 American Promise (15-1) showed speed in the Virginia Derby and won easily but folded in the Kentucky Derby. Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas wheels him right back, looking for a slice of history. He’ll likely be forwardly placed and could even force the pace if he wants to. It seems like a lot to ask for him to force the pace, put away the other speed, and hold off the ralliers, but you have to respect Lukas at a price. He won this race for the seventh time last year.
No.4 Heart of Honor (12-1) is the mystery horse, shipping in from Europe and trying American dirt for the first time. He’s been consistent overseas but faces a huge class and surface test. He’ll likely sit mid-pack and make a run towards the leaders on the turn. He’s never really run a bad race and has never been worse than second, but now he’ll likely have to handle a possible sloppy track and tougher horses. He was narrowly beaten at this distance in his last two races, including the G2 UAE Derby in his last, and is a very interesting longshot at 12-1.
No.5 Pay Billy (20-1) is overmatched on paper, at least on numbers, but he is a tryer. He’s been beating weaker horses at Laurel Park but has won four of his last five starts, including the Private Terms and Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel in his last two. He’ll sit close and make a bid, but he’ll probably need total chaos to make it into the exacta.
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No.6 River Thames (9-2) comes in fresh after missing the Derby. He stayed close to the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes and should do the same here. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. gives him a chance, and if he gets the right pressing trip and makes the first bid, he could pull off the upset, but we’re thinking of him more as an in-the-money play at best.
No.7 Sandman (4-1) had a reasonably tough trip in the Derby but has the best late kick in the field. If the pace is hot, look out. He’ll be running late, and in this smaller field, he should get a cleaner trip. If the leaders come back, Sandman could fly by them all. A must-use.
No.8 Clever Again (5-1) is lightly raced but talented. He earned a 101 Beyer figure in his last, wiring his field in the $200,000 Hot Springs at Oaklawn Park. Pedigree says he should have no trouble with the distance, but this will be a class test. He could steal it if he clears early, but he’ll most likely have to deal with Goal Oriented on the front end.
No.9 Gosger (20-1) is a longshot, despite the fact that he looked good winning the G3 Lexington Stakes in his last at Keeneland. He’s improving and gets Luis Saez, who will have him forwardly placed. He’ll need to step up his figures, but if he does, he could hit the board at a big number. He might even win it.
On paper, the race sets up with No.1 Goal Oriented, No.6 River Thames, and No.8 Clever Again battling for the lead early. As always, if one of those three gets loose, they could go a long way. No.2 Journalism should sit a perfect trip right behind the speed, with No.9 Gosger, No.3 American Promise, and No. 5 Pay Billy in the second flight. No.7 Sandman and No.4 Heart of Honor will be rolling late, and both might need a full pace meltdown to win.
If No.2 Journalism gets a clean trip, he’s supposed to win. But if an early battle develops on the turn, this could open up for No.7 Sandman, No.9 Gosger, or No.Heart of Honor.
Because No.2 Journalism is going to be short odds, we’ll key him on top but also look to beat him with longshots No.9 Gosger and No.4 Heart of Honor. We’ll play Journalism to win and place if he’s 8/5 or better, with a smaller win-place bet on Gosger. We’ll also box Journalism and Gosger in the exacta and throw No.4 Heart of Honor into a smaller exacta box with those two horses.
In minimum-bet tris and supers, we’ll key No.2 Journalism and No.9 Gosger to the board and take smaller tickets with those two horses first and second with All. We’re obviously hoping for a pace battle between No.1 Goal Oriented and No.8 Clever Again and pressure on those two horses from No.6 River Thames and No.3 American Promise. If we get that…
We should be able to cash a great ticket! Good luck!
