Wisconsin at Michigan State: Free Pick & Betting Tips for Crucial Matchup

Wisconsin Badgers (22-6 SU, 19-9 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (23-5 SU, 19-9 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 2nd, 1:30 PM (ET)

Where: Breslin Center, MI, East Lansing

TV: CBS

Point Spread: WISC +4.5/MST -4.5

Total: 146.5

Money Line: Wisconsin Badgers +166/-204

Notable Injuries

Badgers

• Max Klesmit (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Camren Hunter (Questionable) Undisclosed

Spartans

• Brennan Walton (Out) Redshirt
• Colin Walton (Out) Redshirt

Recent Form

Wisconsin Badgers Recent Game/Games

Wisconsin improved to 22-6 on the season with an 88-62 home win over Washington on Tuesday, February 25th. The Badgers entered the game as -13.5 point favorites and covered the spread, while the total points of 150 went over the 148.5 O/U line.

Leading 43-28 at halftime, Wisconsin added 45 points in the 2nd half while allowing 34 points to the Huskies.

Michigan State improved to 23-5 on the season with a 58-55 win over Maryland on Wednesday. The Spartans, who were +4 point underdogs, not only pulled off the upset but also covered the spread.

Trailing 23-21 at halftime, Michigan State turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring Maryland 37-32. The total points for the game were 113, well under the O/U line of 149.5.

Analysis

Wisconsin’s offense put up 88 points in their last game, shooting 51.6% from the field and posting an effective field goal percentage of 59.4%. They were particularly strong inside, hitting 67.6% of their two-point attempts while connecting on 33.3% from beyond the arc, making 10 threes.

John Blackwell led the way with 24 points and 10 rebounds, hitting 4 of 7 from three and 9 of 16 overall. Xavier Amos was efficient as well, shooting 80% from the field and hitting 3 of 4 from deep, finishing with 12 points in just 15 minutes.

Despite Wisconsin’s defensive struggles, allowing 62 points on 51% shooting, they managed to limit their opponent’s three-point success, holding them to 33% from beyond the arc with 10 made threes.

Wisconsin also sent their opponent to the line 16 times, where they converted 12 free throws. The Badgers gave up 13 offensive rebounds in the game.

Michigan State struggled offensively in their last game, shooting just 33.8% from the field and 26.7% from beyond the arc, finishing with 58 points. Their effective field goal percentage was 36.9%, and they managed only seven assists as a team.

Rodney Rice was a bright spot, hitting 4 of 8 threes and finishing with 20 points. Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Jase Richardson each added 15 points, with Richardson grabbing eight rebounds.

Michigan State’s defense was dominant, holding their opponent to just 55 points on 31% shooting from the field. The Spartans were particularly effective in defending the three-point line, where they limited the opposition to 4 made threes on 20 attempts, a 20% success rate.

Inside the arc, Michigan State allowed 11 baskets on 28 attempts, with their opponent shooting 39% on two-pointers. The Spartans also sent the other team to the free-throw line 26 times, where they converted 21 free throws, shooting 80%. Despite the fouls, Michigan State gave up only four offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Wisconsin has averaged 78 points per game while allowing 75. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 4-1 vs. the spread.
• Through their last ten home games, Michigan State has an ATS record of just 8-2. However, their overall record was 8-2 while averaging 74 points per game.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Badgers have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Spartans have a straight-up record of 8-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This is one of the biggest matchups in the Big 10 this season, as Wisconsin goes into East Lansing as the +4.5 point underdogs. The Spartans have just one loss at home this year and are on a 4-game winning streak. If the Badgers have any shot of going for the Big 10 title, they need a win here today, but I see Michigan State taking care of business at home. Look for the Spartans to really take advantage of Wisconsin’s lack of interior presence on defense. I like Michigan State to cover.