Spartans at Hawkeyes: Free College Basketball Predictions & Best Bet

Michigan State Spartans (24-5 SU, 20-9 ATS) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (15-14 SU, 11-18 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 6th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, IA, Iowa City

TV: FS1

Point Spread: MST -6.5/IOWA +6.5

Total: 152.5

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans -295/+230

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Brennan Walton (Out) Redshirt
• Colin Walton (Out) Redshirt

Hawkeyes

• Owen Freeman (Out) Finger

Recent Form

Michigan State improved to 24-5 on the season with a 71-62 win over Wisconsin on Sunday. The Spartans, who were favored by 4.5 points, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total points of 133 fell short of the O/U line of 146.5.

After trailing 34-32 at halftime, Michigan State turned things around in the 2nd half, outscoring Wisconsin 39-28 to secure the win at home.

Iowa’s season record dropped to 15-14 after a 68-57 road loss to Northwestern on Friday. The Hawkeyes entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 125, falling short of the 149.5 O/U line.

Trailing 30-26 at halftime, Iowa couldn’t close the gap in the 2nd half, scoring 31 points while allowing 38.

Analysis

Michigan State’s offense struggled with efficiency in their last game, shooting just 39.4% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 45.1%, and they hit only 46.2% of their free throws.

Jaden Akins led the way with 19 points, hitting 4 of 9 from three-point range. Nolan Winter grabbed 17 rebounds to go along with 12 points, while Jase Richardson contributed 11 points and six assists, connecting on 3 of 6 threes.

Michigan State’s defense held their opponent to 62 points on 39% shooting from the field, as they went 28/71 overall. Inside the arc, they allowed 19/44 shooting, which is 43%.

From three-point range, the Spartans gave up 9/27 shooting, or 33%. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 13 times, where they made 6, shooting 46%. Michigan State allowed 13 offensive rebounds.

Iowa’s offense struggled in their last game, managing just 57 points on 36.2% shooting from the field. They hit 32% from beyond the arc, connecting on 8 of 25 attempts, and finished with an effective field goal percentage of 43.1%.

K.J. Windham led the way with 20 points, hitting 4 of 7 from three-point range. Drew Thelwell was perfect from deep, going 4 for 4, and finished with 14 points on 5 of 7 shooting overall.

Despite Iowa’s defense allowing 68 points, they held their opponent to 42% shooting from the field, with 22 made baskets on 52 attempts. Inside the arc, Iowa gave up 13 two-point field goals on 29 attempts, a 44% shooting rate.

From three-point range, Iowa’s defense allowed nine made threes on 23 attempts, with their opponent shooting 39%. Iowa also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 23 times, where they made 15 free throws, shooting 65%. Iowa gave up nine offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Although Michigan State has a straight-up record of 8-2 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 8-2. The team averaged 74 points per game in these games.
• Across their five previous home games, Iowa has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 68 points per game.
• The last ten games that Iowa was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-8 while going 1-9 straight up.
• The Spartans have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Michigan State is fresh off a big win over Wisconsin this weekend and is favored by -6.5 heading into tonight’s game vs Iowa. It would be easy for the Spartans to look past the Hawkeyes, as Michigan is slated for a huge game vs Michigan this coming Sunday. But I don’t see this as a trap game, as Iowa really struggles on the defensive end of the floor. I like Michigan State to win and cover.