Purdue vs. Michigan: Big Ten Showdown – Joe’s ATS Pick

Purdue Boilermakers (19-5 SU, 14-10 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (18-5 SU, 11-12 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 11th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crisler Center, MI, Ann Arbor

TV: PEAC

Point Spread: PUR +2.5/MICH -2.5

Total: 149.5

Money Line: Purdue Boilermakers +119/-145

Notable Injuries

Boilermakers

• Daniel Jacobsen (Out) Knee

Wolverines

Recent Form

Purdue Boilermakers Recent Game/Games

Purdue improved to 19-5 on the season with a 90-72 win over USC on Friday. The Boilermakers, who were -13.5 favorites, covered the spread at home. The game’s total points of 162 exceeded the O/U line of 145.5.

Purdue led 48-36 at halftime and maintained their edge by outscoring USC 42-36 in the second half.

Michigan Wolverines Recent Game/Games

Michigan improved to 18-5 on the season with a 70-67 win over Indiana on Saturday. The Wolverines were -3.5 point favorites heading into the road matchup but didn’t cover the spread. The game’s total points of 137 fell short of the O/U line of 153.5.

Michigan jumped out to a 43-27 lead in the first half but allowed the Hoosiers to score 40 points in the second half while managing only 27 points themselves.

Analysis

Purdue’s offense put up 90 points in their last game, shooting 50% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 54.5%, thanks to hitting 67.5% of their two-point attempts (27/40), though they struggled from deep, connecting on just 6 of 26 threes (23.1%).

Wesley Yates III led the way with 30 points, shooting 11/22 overall and 2/6 from three. Trey Kaufman-Renn added 24 points and 10 rebounds, going 8/12 from the field. The Boilermakers also grabbed 17 offensive rebounds and dished out 19 assists.

Despite Purdue’s defensive struggles, they gave up 72 points on 50% shooting from the field. The Boilermakers allowed 67% shooting on two-point attempts, with their opponents hitting 27 of 40 shots.

From beyond the arc, Purdue held their opponents to 23% shooting, as they made just 6 of 26 three-point attempts. The Boilermakers also sent their opponents to the free-throw line 26 times, where they converted 18 for 69%. Purdue allowed 17 offensive rebounds in the game.

Michigan’s offense put up 70 points in their last game, shooting 44.4% from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 48.1%, with a strong 57.6% shooting inside the arc. However, they struggled from three-point range, hitting just 5 of 21 attempts for 23.8%.

At the free-throw line, the Wolverines were efficient, making 17 of 20 attempts for 85%. They grabbed eight offensive rebounds and dished out eight assists. Danny Wolf led the way with 20 points and nine rebounds, while Anthony Leal was perfect from three, hitting all 3 of his attempts.

Michigan’s defense held their opponent to 67 points on 41% shooting from the field, with 25 made baskets out of 60 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 19 two-point field goals on 41 attempts, a 46% shooting rate.

From three-point range, Michigan’s defense gave up six threes on 19 attempts, which is 31% shooting. They also sent their opponent to the free-throw line 15 times, where they made 11 free throws, shooting 73%. Michigan allowed eight offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Purdue has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 5-0. Their overall mark in these games was 5-0, while averaging 74 points per game.
• Although Michigan has a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 76 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Boilermakers have a straight-up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
• Although the Wolverines have a strong straight-up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 0-3.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight, we have a great Big 10 matchup, as Michigan is looking to join Purdue with their 11th win in the conference, and they are favored by -2.5 at home. Where I think Michigan has the edge is on defense, particularly inside. This year, they are allowing teams to shoot just 46.5% from inside the arc, while Purdue is at 53.9%, which is 285th in the country. I’m going with Michigan to win and cover at home tonight.