Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines: Expert CBB Picks & Predictions

When: Wednesday, February 5th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crisler Center, MI, Ann Arbor

TV: BTN

Point Spread: ORE +7.5/MICH -7.5

Total: 154

Money Line: Oregon Ducks +260/-325

Notable Injuries

Ducks

• Ra’Heim Moss (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Dezdrick Lindsay (Out) Shoulder
• Jamari Phillips (Questionable) Undisclosed

Wolverines

Recent Form

Oregon Ducks Recent Game/Games

Oregon’s season record dropped to 16-6 after a 77-71 home loss to Nebraska on Sunday. The Ducks, who were -6.5 favorites, failed to cover the spread.

Oregon trailed 34-28 at halftime and couldn’t make up the difference in the second half, with both teams scoring 43 points. The game’s total points of 148 just edged past the O/U line of 147.5.

Michigan Wolverines Recent Game/Games

Michigan improved to 16-5 on the season with a 66-63 win over Rutgers on Saturday. The Wolverines were -6.5 favorites heading into the game but didn’t cover the spread. The combined points of 129 fell well short of the 154.5 O/U line.

Michigan led 32-25 at halftime but allowed 38 points in the 2nd half while scoring 34. Despite the close finish, they managed to hold on for the win.

Analysis

In their last game, the Ducks managed 71 points, shooting 40% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc, hitting 5 of 20 three-point attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 43.3%, and they were strong from the free-throw line, converting 18 of 22 attempts for 81.8%.

Brice Williams led the way with 28 points, shooting 55.6% overall, though he struggled from three, going 2 for 8. Juwan Gary added 23 points, hitting 60% of his shots, and Brandon Angel was efficient, making 5 of 7 attempts, including 1 of 2 from deep.

Despite giving up 77 points, Oregon held their opponent to 40% shooting from the field, with 24 made baskets on 60 attempts. Inside the arc, the Ducks allowed 19 two-point field goals on 40 attempts, a 47% shooting rate.

From three-point range, Oregon’s defense limited their opponent to just five made threes on 20 attempts, a 25% success rate. However, they sent their opponent to the free-throw line 22 times, where they converted 18 of those attempts, shooting 81%. Oregon also gave up 11 offensive rebounds.

In their latest game, Michigan’s offense put up 66 points, shooting 47.8% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5%. They connected on 57.7% of their two-point attempts and hit 35% from beyond the arc, going 7-for-20 from three-point range. At the free-throw line, the Wolverines shot 71.4%, making 15 of 21 attempts.

Jamichael Davis led the way with 20 points, hitting 4 of 7 from three and shooting 57.1% overall. Danny Wolf contributed 16 points and 14 rebounds, while Vladislav Goldin was efficient inside, shooting 75% and adding 14 points. Tyson Acuff also chipped in 14 points, hitting four threes at a 50% clip.

Michigan’s defense held their opponent to just 63 points on 32% shooting from the field, including 38% from two-point range. They also limited damage from beyond the arc, with the opposition shooting 27% on 36 three-point attempts.

From the free-throw line, Michigan’s opponent went 9/13, hitting 69% of their attempts. The Wolverines gave up 15 offensive rebounds in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Oregon has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-2 while averaging 70 points per game.
• Although Michigan has a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 76 points per game in these games.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Ducks have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 3-2.
• Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Wolverines struggled vs the spread going just 1-4. However, they still had a straight-up mark of 4-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Ever since Oregon’s win over Washington on January 21st, they have fallen off a cliff. Since then, they lost to Minnesota, were blown out vs UCLA, and fell to Nebraska at home. As for Michigan, they have won two straight after their blowout loss to Purdue on January 24th. Now, they are favored by -7.5 at home over Oregon. Even though this appears like a big number, I see Michigan taking care of business at home. I’m taking the Wolverines at -7.5.