Joe’s CBB Pick: Illinois -4 vs. Purdue – Home Court Edge?

When: Friday, March 7th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Center, IL, Champaign

TV: FOX

Point Spread: PUR +4/ILL -4

Total: 159.5

Money Line: Purdue Boilermakers +140/-170

Notable Injuries

Boilermakers

• Daniel Jacobsen (Out) Knee

Fighting Illini

• Ty Rodgers (Out) Redshirt
• Morez Johnson Jr. (Out) Wrist

Recent Form

Purdue improved to 21-9 on the season with a dominant 100-71 win over Rutgers on Tuesday. The Boilermakers were -11 favorites going into the game and covered the spread with ease.

Purdue led 50-41 at halftime and held Rutgers to just 30 points in the second half while scoring another 50 points themselves. The game’s total points of 171 went over the pre-game line of 150.5.

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Game/Games

Illinois improved to 19-11 on the season with a 93-73 win over Michigan on Sunday. The Illini, who were +3 underdogs, not only won but covered the spread. The game’s total points of 166 exceeded the O/U line of 162.5.

Illinois led 31-30 at halftime before exploding for 62 points in the 2nd half while holding Michigan to 43 points.

Analysis

Purdue’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 100 points with a 56.1% field goal percentage. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 69.7%, thanks in part to hitting 18 of 36 from beyond the arc, good for 50% shooting from three.

Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer both contributed 23 points, with Smith adding nine assists. Loyer was 7 of 12 from three, shooting 58.3% from deep. Trey Kaufman-Renn was efficient inside, hitting 8 of 10 shots for 16 points and grabbing eight rebounds.

Purdue’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 71 points on 56% shooting from the field. They allowed the opposing team to hit 63% of their two-point attempts, with a 19/30 performance.

From beyond the arc, Purdue’s opponents shot 50%, knocking down 18 of 36 three-point attempts. They also sent the other team to the line 9 times, where they converted eight free throws, an 88% rate. Purdue gave up 15 offensive rebounds.

Illinois put up 93 points in their last game, shooting 46.6% from the field and 37.8% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 56.2%, with 14 made threes on 37 attempts.

Vladislav Goldin led the way with 22 points, hitting 11 of 15 shots. Tre White added 19 points and 11 rebounds, connecting on 3 of 4 from deep.

Illinois gave up 73 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 45% from the field, hitting 28 of their 61 attempts. Inside the arc, Illinois allowed a 55% shooting rate, as the other team made 24 of 43 two-point shots.

From three-point range, Illinois held their opponent to just four made threes on 18 attempts, a 22% shooting performance. The other team also went 13/19 from the free-throw line, shooting 68%. Illinois allowed 12 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• Across their three previous road games, Purdue has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 0-3 while averaging 65 points per game.
• In their last three home games, Illinois has averaged 87 points per game while allowing 80. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Through their last three games as the betting underdog, the Boilermakers have a strong record vs the spread, going 2-1. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 1-2.
• Although the Fighting Illini have a strong straight-up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Illinois is favored by -4 at home tonight vs Purdue, who is just 5-5 on the road this year. The strength of this Illinois team is their defense, as they are 20th in opponent-effective field goal percentage and 15th in opponent shooting efficiency. Even though Purdue has won a couple in a row, I see Illinois winning this one at home and covering the spread.