Duke vs. UNC: Expert ATS Pick & Betting Predictions for March 8th Showdown

Duke Blue Devils (27-3 SU, 20-10 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (20-11 SU, 12-18-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 8th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Dean E. Smith Center, NC, Chapel Hill

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: DUKE -10.5/NCAR +10.5

Total: 157.5

Money Line: Duke Blue Devils -527/+389

Notable Injuries

Blue Devils

• Maliq Brown (Questionable) Shoulder

Tar Heels

Recent Form

Duke improved to 27-3 this season with a dominant 93-60 win over Wake Forest on Monday. The Blue Devils were -20 favorites and covered the spread, while the game’s total points of 153 went over the 147.5 O/U line.

Leading 40-27 at halftime, Duke put up 53 points in the 2nd half while holding Wake Forest to 33 points.

North Carolina Tar Heels Recent Game/Games

North Carolina improved to 20-11 on the season with a dominant 91-59 road win over Virginia Tech on Tuesday. The Tar Heels, who were favored by 8 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total points of 150 narrowly exceeded the over/under line of 149.5.

UNC took control early, leading 46-29 at halftime, and continued their strong play in the second half, outscoring the Hokies 45-30.

Analysis

Duke’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 93 points with an effective field goal percentage of 56.9%. They connected on 14 threes, shooting 35.9% from deep, and were even better inside the arc, hitting 60.6% of their two-point attempts. The Blue Devils also excelled at the free-throw line, making 11 of 13 attempts for an 84.6% success rate.

Cooper Flagg led the way with 28 points, shooting 62.5% overall and 50% from three, while also grabbing eight rebounds and dishing out seven assists. Kon Knueppel added 17 points, hitting 50% from beyond the arc, and Duke’s offense was further boosted by 18 offensive rebounds and 19 assists as a team.

Even though Duke allowed 60 points, they gave up a 47% shooting performance, with their opponent hitting 34 of 72 shots. Inside the arc, the Blue Devils allowed 60% shooting, as their opponent went 20 for 33 on two-point attempts.

From three-point range, Duke’s defense saw 39 attempts, with their opponent connecting on 14 threes for 35%. They also sent the other team to the line 13 times, where they made 11 free throws, an 84% clip. Duke allowed 18 offensive rebounds in the game.

North Carolina’s offense was firing on all cylinders, putting up 91 points with a 58.9% field goal percentage. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 71.4%, thanks to hitting 15 of 28 from three-point range (53.6%) and 64.3% on two-point shots.

Ian Jackson led the way with 19 points, connecting on 5 of 8 from beyond the arc. RJ Davis and Drake Powell also shot 75% from three, each hitting 3 of 4 attempts. The Tar Heels dished out 24 assists in the win.

North Carolina’s defense was strong, holding their opponent to just 59 points on 37% shooting from the field. They limited two-point attempts, with the other team making only 15 of 37 for 40%.

From beyond the arc, the Tar Heels allowed seven threes on 21 attempts, a 33% success rate. Their opponent also struggled at the free-throw line, hitting just 8 of 15 for 53%.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Duke has an ATS mark of 8-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 9-1 while averaging 83 points per game.
• Across the Tar Heels last five home games, the team averaged 82 points per game while allowing 79. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 3-2 straight-up.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Tar Heels have a straight-up record of 0-3. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 0-3.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Blue Devils have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight-up mark of 3-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I’m going with North Carolina to cover in this one, as even though Duke is clearly the better team, they are facing a UNC team that is playing well right now. It should also be a wild scene in Chapel Hill, as Tar Heels fans should be ready to create a hostile environment. Look for this one to be a lot tighter than expected and for UNC to cover.