Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies: Betting Odds, Trends & Expert Prediction

Auburn Tigers (27-2 SU, 18-11 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (20-9 SU, 14-13-2 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 4th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Reed Arena, TX, College Station

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Aub -5.5/TAMU +5.5

Total: 148.5

Money Line: Auburn Tigers -249/+200

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Notable Injuries

Tigers

Aggies

Recent Form

Auburn Tigers Recent Game

Auburn improved to 27-2 this season with a 94-78 road win over Kentucky on Saturday. The Tigers entered the game as a -4.5 favorite and covered the spread, while the total points of 172 exceeded the O/U line of 166.5.

Auburn took control early, leading 49-34 at halftime. They scored 45 points in the 2nd half but allowed 44 points to Kentucky, making the final score closer than the game felt.

Texas A&M dropped to 20-9 on the season after an 89-70 road loss to the Gators on Saturday. The Aggies were +8.5 underdogs heading into the game and failed to cover the spread.

After trailing 45-34 at halftime, Texas A&M allowed 44 points in the 2nd half while scoring 36. The game’s total points of 159 exceeded the O/U line of 150.5.

Analysis

Auburn’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 94 points while shooting 51.8% from the field and 46.2% from three-point range. Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 62.5%, and they connected on 77.4% of their free throws, going 24-for-31 from the line.

Miles Kelly led the way with 30 points, hitting 9-of-14 threes, while Koby Brea and Tahaad Pettiford each added 21 points. Amari Williams contributed 13 points and 14 rebounds, along with seven assists, as Auburn finished with just eight assists as a team and five offensive rebounds.

Even with Auburn holding them to just four made threes, the Tigers couldn’t keep their opponent off the free-throw line, where they scored 28 points on 38 attempts. Overall, Auburn’s defense allowed 78 points on 46% shooting from the field.

Inside the arc, Auburn gave up 19 two-point baskets on 33 attempts, a 57% shooting rate. They also allowed 12 offensive rebounds in the game.

In their last game, Texas A&M struggled offensively, shooting just 39% from the field and 29.4% from three-point range, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. They managed only three assists but did grab 15 offensive rebounds and hit 19 of 28 free throws, shooting 67.9% from the line.

Will Richard led the way with 25 points, hitting 6 of 9 threes and shooting 69.2% overall. Thomas Haugh added 17 points, shooting 70% from the field and 66.7% from deep, while Alex Condon contributed 11 points and nine rebounds, hitting 5 of 6 shots.

Texas A&M’s defense struggled in their last game, giving up 89 points on 47% shooting from the field. They allowed 52% shooting on two-point attempts, with the opposing team hitting 18 of 34 shots.

From beyond the arc, Texas A&M gave up 14 threes on 33 attempts, a 42% success rate. They also sent the other team to the line 16 times, where they made 11 free throws and allowed 14 offensive rebounds.

Betting Trends

• The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last road games and 5-0 straight-up.
• Through their last three home contests, the Aggies offense has averaged 63 points per game while allowing an average of 74. Texas A&M posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Aggies have a straight-up record of 5-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.
• As the betting favorite, the Tigers have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Texas A&M has been really good on their home floor this year, but they are in a tough spot tonight, as they have lost four straight and are facing the number 1 team in the country. Auburn has won 6-straight and is 8-1 on the road this year. If Texas A&M is going to have a chance, they are going to need to continue getting to the free-throw line at a high clip. Yet, I see their lack of 3-point shooting to be a problem. I like Auburn to cover at -5.5.