Dallas at Seattle WNBA Prediction
Tuesday, June 3rd
Let’s talk about incentives, specifically ones for winning.
Even if you’re an obscenely overpaid professional athlete making millions of dollars per year, a $40,000 bonus is still a hell of an incentive. But when you’re a WNBA player with an average salary of $130k, a 40K bonus is HUGE.
And that’s approximately what each player from the team that won the Commissioner’s Cup got last year.
Does that added incentive translate into information sports bettors can use?
Here’s food for thought.
The two teams with the best record from each conference advance to the final game.
What happens if two teams are tied with the best record?
From the WNBA’s Rules:
The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record.
The second tiebreaker is based on point differential; the team with the better number advances.
From the “Explain it to me like I’m a two-year-old” category – each team in a conference plays the other teams in their conference ONCE during the Commissioner’s Cup.
So WHY is the second tiebreaker necessary??!!
Anyway . . .
The thought is that IF point differential comes into play, teams would have an added incentive to finish a game with as much scoring as possible.
Let’s say the home team is a -6′ Fav and is winning by 6 points with only a minute left on the clock. In a normal game, scoring would now be secondary to using up as much time on the game clock as possible.
BUT if point differentials matter they’ll keep trying to score to the very end.
In the scenario above, it could turn a game from a loser ATS to a winner.
I’m not saying it’s a fact that the point differential tiebreaker has an effect on final scores; I’m simply offering it as food for thought.
But here is a fact:
In 2024, Commissioner’s Cup Favorites had a record of 19-11.
That’s 63%.
That’s an exploitable edge.
Coincidence?
Fluke (also a great book by Christopher Moore)?
I don’t know.
But certainly, something to keep in mind in 2025.
So, with an eye towards playing Favs for the next two weeks, what do we have when CC play resumes Tuesday night with three games?
(Favs were 2-2 on day one of CC play on Sunday.)
First up, we have Indiana -4′ over Washington.
A small number to cover but the Fever are Clark-less.
And they’re 0-2 since Caitlin went down with an injury.
And replacement guard Sophie Cunningham left their last game with an injury, too.
How bad are the Clark-less Fever?
They lost SU to winless Connecticut.
AS 11 POINT HOME FAVORITES!!!
I’ll pass on this Fav.
Game two has undefeated, first-place Minnesota (7-0) at home vs 5-2 Phoenix.
The Lynx are -10′.
That’s a pretty big spread to cover for a team with a point differential of +8.3 vs. a team that also has a plus value at +4.4.
And it’s a revenge spot for Phoenix, who lost to Minnesota last week by just three points.
Pass on this Fav, too.
The last game has Dallas at Seattle.
The Storm are -8′.
And I have this – Dallas qualifies as a WF1 play.
WF1 Rd games are 3-5 this season, a slight edge.
Add that to the edge that Favs had in the CC last season, and it’s enough to make me buy the Storm.
I used Seattle in this same WF1 Fade spot last week when Phoenix came to town and got a W.
And I’m sticking with what worked.
Taking the Storm and looking for a double-digit victory.
Dallas is 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 2-2 ATS on the Rd.
Seattle is 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-2 ATS at Hm.
The Wing’s only victory came against fellow basement-dweller Connecticut.
Atlanta’s average margin of defeat on the Rd is 5.6.
Seattle’s average margin of victory at home is 13.5.
The difference between the two is the same as the spread on this one.
When to Buy Recommendation
The books opened this one at Sea -8′, and that’s where it’s still sitting. It’s 2-3 points too high if you ask me, and I don’t see it going any higher, so I’m going to wait to buy it.
Sea (wait to buy)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-6
Review: GOOD move, not trusting the Mystics to score what I needed from them. Instead, I took the Liberty team total Over rather than the full game Over.
The game stayed Under by 17.
The team total went Over. By one!
