Flat Betting vs. Unit Sizing: Which Bankroll Strategy Works Best?
Ask any sharp bettor what separates winning bettors from losing ones, and they’ll tell you the same thing: bankroll management. While picking winners matters, how you structure your bets is just as important. Two of the most commonly used strategies are flat betting and unit sizing. Understanding the pros and cons of each will help you maximize profits and minimize risk.
What is Flat Betting?
Flat betting means wagering the same amount on every bet, regardless of confidence level. Whether it’s an NFL game or a college basketball total, your bet size stays the same.
- Fixed Wager Size: Every bet is for the same amount (e.g., 1%–2% of your bankroll).
- Steady Bankroll Growth: Variance is controlled, reducing swings.
- Discipline-Oriented: Avoids chasing losses or overextending on “locks.”
Pros and Cons of Flat Betting
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Easy to manage and reduces emotional betting. | Limits upside on high-confidence plays. |
| Steady bankroll growth through long-term consistency. | Can feel “slow” if you’re hitting a hot streak. |
| Minimizes risk during losing streaks. | Not optimized for maximizing ROI on strong plays. |
What is Unit Sizing?
Unit sizing adjusts bet sizes based on confidence levels. A bettor might wager 1 unit on a standard play and 3 units on a high-confidence play. If you’re consistently winning, this strategy allows you to capitalize on reduced juice and maximize your edge.
- Bet More When Confident: Larger wagers on higher-value bets.
- Higher Reward Potential: A strong ROI if high-confidence bets win.
- Requires Discipline: Misjudging confidence can lead to bigger losses.
Pros and Cons of Unit Sizing
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Maximizes profit on high-confidence plays. | Can lead to bankroll swings if confidence is misplaced. |
| Gives skilled bettors more control over ROI. | Emotion-based betting can lead to poor sizing. |
| More aggressive approach suited for experienced bettors. | High variance during cold streaks. |
Which Strategy is Right for You?
- Flat Betting: Ideal for beginners and conservative bettors focused on minimizing risk.
- Unit Sizing: Better for experienced bettors with strong predictive models and discipline.
- Hybrid Strategy: Many pros use a mix—flat betting for most plays, with unit sizing on high-confidence plays.
Example: Flat Betting vs. Unit Sizing in Action
You have a $10,000 bankroll:
- Flat Betting: Bet 1% ($100) per play, winning 55% of your bets. After 100 bets, you’d be up around $500 (minus vig).
- Unit Sizing: Bet 1 unit ($100) on standard plays and 3 units ($300) on high-confidence plays. If you hit 60% of high-confidence bets and 53% of others, you’d be up significantly more than flat betting.
Final Thoughts
Both strategies have their merits, and choosing the right one depends on your betting style. If you’re looking for stability, go with flat betting. If you want to maximize returns on high-value plays, unit sizing might be the way to go. The key is staying disciplined and sticking to a plan—letting emotions control your bets is a fast track to disaster.