Betting Against Sharp Money: When the Public Can Be Right
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason—they win more often than they lose over the long run. But that doesn’t mean they’re always right. In fact, there are specific situations where the public side is actually the correct play. If you know when to recognize these moments, you can profit by going against the sharps and backing the public.
Why Sharp Money Isn’t Always Right
Sharp bettors are focused on value and long-term profitability. That means they sometimes make bets that are statistically sound but situationally flawed. Here’s why sharp money isn’t always the right side:
- Market Overcorrection: When sportsbooks adjust too aggressively to sharp action, it creates value on the public side.
- Information Lag: Sharps rely on inside information and data, but if key injury or lineup news becomes public, the market may adjust too late.
- Motivation and Situational Factors: Sharp models may not fully account for player motivation, rivalry dynamics, or coaching decisions.
- Flat Spot Games: A superior team may not give 100% effort if they’re coming off a big win or looking ahead to a marquee matchup.
When to Bet Against Sharp Money
While blindly fading sharp money is a losing strategy, there are specific situations where the public side holds more value. Here’s how to spot them:
| Situation | Indicator | Why It Works |
|---|---|---|
| Overreaction to Sharp Money | Line moves several points despite limited public betting | Market overcorrects, creating value on the original side |
| Injury or Breaking News | Line moves sharply after key injury or lineup news | Market tends to adjust too far, creating value on the opposite side |
| Public-Favored Big Market Teams | Public pounds the favorite, but the line doesn’t move | Books may be shading the line, expecting sharp buyback |
| Trap Line Situations | Suspiciously low line for a superior team | Books may be setting a trap for sharps |
Example: Cowboys vs. Giants (Hypothetical)
The Cowboys open as -7 favorites against the Giants. Sharp money drives the line down to -5.5, but public money is steady on the Cowboys. If the Giants are missing key players or have matchup disadvantages that sharps are overlooking, betting the Cowboys at a better number could hold more value.
How to Identify False Sharp Action
- Small Line Moves Without Volume: If the line shifts despite low betting volume, it may be a false sharp signal.
- Follow the Handle, Not Just the Bet Percentage: If 80% of the bets are on one side, but the money is even, sharps are likely on the other side.
- Inconsistent Line Movement: If one book is moving the line, but others are holding steady, it could be a market test.
Common Mistakes When Betting Against Sharps
- Assuming Sharps Are Always Wrong: Just because sharp money loses occasionally doesn’t mean you should always fade it.
- Chasing Line Movement: If the line has already moved, you’re likely late to the value.
- Ignoring Public Bias: Some games attract heavy public action for a reason—if the public is right, there’s no value in fading them.
Final Thoughts
Sharp bettors win long term—but that doesn’t mean they win every bet. Technically, a sharp is anybody that can consistently hit over 52.38% long term (51.19% if you bet on games at -105 reduced odds at BetAnySports!) Realistically, a sharp bettor hits around 57% of his bets. When the market overcorrects or fails to adjust for key situational factors, betting against the sharps can be a profitable strategy. The key is understanding why the line moved, not just assuming sharps are right. Trust the data, monitor the market, and don’t be afraid to go against the sharps when the situation calls for it.