WNBA Prediction: LA Sparks at Phoenix Mercury
It’s early in the season, not a lot of stats and numbers to look at while handicapping, so today’s article is in the style of Joe Friday:
“Just the facts, Ma’am.”
Line: Phx -5′, 162
SU Records:
LA 1-1
Phx 1-0
ATS Records;
LA 1-1 (Hm 0-1, Rd 1-0)
Phx 1-0 (Hm)
Totals:
LA 0-2
Phx 0-1
All three games played stayed Under.
- LA PPG 79.5, OPP PPG 78
- Phx PPG 81, OPP PPG 59
- LA average score 157.5
- Phx average score 140
Both those averages are lower than tonight’s 162.
H2H: There are major lineup changes on both teams (LA no longer has Layshia Clarendon and Lexi Brown; Cameron Brink is still a hottie but also still on the bench; Seattle lost their star center Brittney Griner, and future Hall of Famer Diana Taurasi retired) so this is an irrelevant factoid, but here it is anyway . . .
the Mercury beat the Sparks all four games last season, SU and ATS.
And three of the four games came in Under the posted total.
LA comes into this one after getting their ass kicked at home vs Minnesota, 89-75. Their lone win came against the expansion team, the Golden State Valkyries.
Phoenix is off a 22-point home win, 81-59 against Seattle.
The season is only five days old, so I don’t have a lot of data accumulated for my personal handicapping methods yet (this season, I’m using two models for identifying Wrong Favorites, WF1 & WF2, and three models for picking totals, T1, T2, and H/C Trend Reversal spots) but here’s what I do have active in tonight’s game:
WF1 says LA should be the Favorite in this one. WF1’s overall record is 2-4, 0-2 on Rd teams (like LA tonight.)
T1 says the game stays Under.
The record for this spot is 2-1.
Like I said, it’s too early in the season to identify any real edges but like I also say – jumping on established trends is not how you win. Getting on them early is how you bank a profit.
Easier said than done, of course, but I’ll play the edges from both of my models that have plays in tonight’s game and hope one of them catches fire.
The game plan for the Storm is simple – shut down the Sparks newly acquired star point guard Kelsey Plum. Plum leads the team with 27.5 PPG, 10 points higher than their second-leading scorer, Dearica Hamby. If they can defend effectively against Plum they should cruise to another double digit victory at home.
When to Buy Recommendation
I think the Fav goes higher and the total comes down so I bought both of these this morning.
My plays:
Phx -5′
LA/Phx Un 162
Recap: 1-1
Record: 1-2
Review: Lost with Dallas as a home underdog.
My other bet on the game was Under 166′.
Sea/Dal had 97 points at halftime, putting them on pace for 194, which would be over my number by 27 points.
I’m dead, right?
Wrong.
It’s the WNBA.
After putting up 25 points in the first quarter and then 31 in the second quarter, Seattle puts up just 10 points in the third and 13 in the fourth.
Their combined 23 points in the entire second half was less than they scored in each of the first two quarters!
And Dallas did their part to contribute to my Under, with a 10-point 4th quarter at home.
A 97 point first half followed by a 53 point second half, and an all-but-sure-Over ended up not just squeezing by with an Under, but an easy winner by 16 points.
Welcome to the WNBA.
