Indiana at Cleveland Prediction

Line: Cleveland -9, total 230
Date: Tuesday, May 6, at 7 pm EST
Where to watch: TNT (Ya gotta love the TNT broadcasts with Shaq, Charles, Kenny and Ernie.)

Tonight is game two in the series.
The Pacers lead 1-0 after beating the Cavs 121-112 in the series opener.
Cleveland was a -9 Fav in that game, meaning the Pacers covered the spread by a mammoth 18 points.

Indiana has now won 4 of 5 against Cleveland this season, the only loss coming back in April, 117-127. And they won the only two games that mattered – the meeting in the final week of the season, when Indiana needed to win for playoff positioning and home court advantage against Milwaukee in round one, and in the playoff game to open round two.

In Sunday’s game, the Cavs got outscored by 11 points in the first quarter and never recovered, never again seeing a lead.
They closed to within two points at the end of the third quarter but got outscored by seven points in the final quarter, including a 15-5 Pacer run after the Cavs tied the score.
So Cleveland started slow in Q1, and we’re unable to finish strong in Q4, at home.
There’s no excuse for coming up that flat in game one of a playoff series in your home arena.

I backed Cleveland in game one and they didn’t show up. And now I’m in an unenviable position I try to avoid as a bettor – switching allegiances in back-to-back picks.
It makes me feel like I’m Brutus or Judas, a bit Benedict Arnold-ish.
But then again, if you screw me in game one, well, screw YOU in game two.
I’m going with the Pacers tonight.

My buy is based on one of my own handicapping models:
WF1 says that Cleveland is the Wrong Fav in this one.
WF1 in the postseason has a record of 6-2, including a 5-1 record when the play calls for the Rd team to be the Fav.
WF1 was a strong performer in me in the regular season with a Rd record of 47-32.
That’s 59%, with almost 80 picks charted.
Including the postseason Rd record it’s 52-33, 61%.

When to Buy Recommendation:

Where’s the money going to go?
Do bettors expect Cleveland to even the series up in game two at home? Most likely. But does that mean they think they’ll cover, too?

The game opened at -8′, but -9 is now the common number. And I see few houses have reduced juice on that -9, which leads me to believe the number is not going to get any better for the Dog.

The line movement will depend on injury updates throughout the day. The home team’s a-hurtin’. Garland’s missed a couple of games and is again listed as day-to-day for tonight’s game.
And newly joining him on that list is Mobley (ankle) and Hunter (thumb.) Mobley and Hunter combined for 31 points in game one.
So, there’s a chance the Cavs will be without three of their five regular starters. This means the Pacers can focus their defense on stopping Donovan Mitchell, which would put Cleveland in a dire situation with few options to turn to.
I’m buying this now while I can still get the full +9 points.

Ind +9

Recap: 0-1
Record: 12-14
Review: Lost with the Cavs.

I’m getting stronger play with my forum picks in the NBA. My record there is 15-12 after hitting a Derek White prop last night to go over 14′ points (he scored 19.)
It takes much more time to spot a weak line on player prop bets than it does a full game.
I can rarely do a proper ‘cap on all the individual players I look at AND get an article turned in before my submission deadline, which is why the PredictEm forum is a convenient venue for prop bets. I should have one for tonight, so be sure to check it out.

April accounting:
I finished with my worst month at PredictEm, 6-11, including a -165 loss in the Mil/Ind series. On that bet (series to go Over 5′ games), the Bucks blew a seven-point lead with 30 seconds left in the game when they turned the ball over twice. This saddled me with a -265 swing on my unit count.

April was my 11th month here at PredictEm, and only the third month in those 11 that my record had a loss of a full unit or more.

I’ve got some work to do in May to finish my first year strong. Fortunately, the WNBA season begins in 10 days on May 16th.
Last season I went 28-22, 56% with WNBA picks in my articles, grinding out a small profit.
Armed with a little more experience on ‘capping the league, and a couple systems that I developed last year, I’m in a good position to improve on that 56% in the 2025 season.