Indiana at New York Series Bet
Hedging From a Sports Bettor’s POV
“To hedge or not to hedge, that is the question.”
Bill S.
Hedging on a futures wager is always a hot topic that leads to passionate debate.
Some bettors insist that you ALWAYS stick with your original bet and shoot for the the higher payoff.
Others say you should hedge your play and guarantee yourself a profit.
I say it’s not written in stone.
The decision should be fluid, based on your situation.
If you have a profit on the season, lean towards taking the higher risk for the higher payoff.
But, if you’re in the red . . .
My W with Nesmith Ov 12′ points in my last NBA play puts my combined total for article picks and forum picks at 34-33.
Based on standard odds of 110/100, I’m looking at -2.3 units (this is approximate because on many bets, I lay a few cents fewer than the average -110, but I’ve also used a couple prop bets where I’ve laid slightly higher juice.)
I have one outstanding play, results not in yet:
Indiana to win the series vs. NY at +140.
With last night’s win at home, the Pacers go back to New York for game five, up 3-1.
Current odds have the Knicks available at +450 to win the series.
Which begs the question – to hedge or not to hedge?
No NBA team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit, and comebacks from being down 1-3 are extremely rare. So the odds favor my +140.
But . . . it’s not guaranteed.
And +450 offers an attractive hedge.
At first glance it seems that the scheduling favors the Knicks, with two of the next three games being at home in the Garden.
But as always with handicapping you have to take a closer look, you have to see every angle on the chessboard before you make a move.
NY is just 3-5 at home in the playoffs this season. Suddenly, the scheduling doesn’t look like too much of an advantage, eh?
Of course with elimination on the line there IS a LITTLE added extra incentive to consider when ‘capping this situation.
Indiana won the first two games at Madison Square, but they were tight games that went right down to the wire, ending with wins by just three points and five.
Those games could have gone either way.
So, can the Knicks win game five?
The oddsmakers seem to think so; they’ve made them -5 Favorites.
Another point to consider – with a 3-1 advantage and knowing they only need to win one of the next three, will the Pacers become slackers in game five?
Not likely considering it’s the postseason but we’ve seen it happen before.
So let’s say New York gets a win in game five.
That puts the series at 2-3 for the Knicks as they head back to Indy for game six.
Let’s analyze that situation.
While New York has been sub-par at home at 3-5 this postseason, they’ve been stellar on the road with a record of 6-2, including 1-1 at Indiana.
With momentum on their side from a Game 5 win, New York is well-equipped to steal one more game on the road.
And where does that leave you?
Back at the Garden for an anyone-can-win game 7.
Yes, the odds favor Indiana to win one of the next three.
But it’s not a guarantee.
You know what IS guaranteed?
A profit in this series if you have a series bet on Indiana in your pocket
Grabbing the +450 on the Knicks, hedging the +140 on the Pacers series, leaves a bettor with a guaranteed profit of either .4 or +3.5 units.
If I was up on the season, I’d stick with my bet on the Pacers and ride it out. But as noted above, I’m currently down 2.3 units.
If I stick with the Pacers and they win, I can reduce that to fewer than one unit, -.9, with the NBA finals left on the schedule to get back in black on my season total.
But if they lose, I go down to -3.3, a deficit I likely won’t be able to recover with the limited number of games left in the championship series.
I can get to -1.9 or +1.2 if I hedge with NY.
Like I said, if I was up on the season, I’d stick with my Pacers play, but with a deficit, the smart move for me is to claim ANY profit available and cut into that red number.
And that’s what I did.
My play:
NY to win the series at +450.
