Michigan at Birmingham
UFL Playoff Prediction
These days it’s almost impossible to find a post game discussion between sports bettors where someone doesn’t say the game was rigged.
“Coincidentally,” those insisting it was fixed are also the guys that lost their bet on the game.
I ignore them all because their opinions are biased and thus invalid. But sometimes you have to wonder if they’re correct.
Like this past Sunday.
In the UFL game between Birmingham and Memphis, I saw Donaghy-like officiating.
(If you don’t get the reference to NBA referee Donaghy look it up.)
The Stallions got a pick 6 but on replay the tape shows a face mask penalty on Birmingham.
An additional camera angle shows BOTH of the defender’s hands pulled down on the QB’s mask. And not just a quick tug and release; it was a full-on grab that twisted the helmet.
Memphis’s head coach naturally threw the challenge flag but the insufferable Dean Blandino ruled the challenge was denied.
When the game announcers questioned Blandino on why he denied the challenge on what was clearly a grab of the face mask, he said it was based on “lack of intent.”
WTF??!!
Five minutes later they come back from a commercial break and viewers are treated to a live shot of the Showboat’s defensive coordinator showing a still photo of his quarterback with the defender’s hands pulling down on the mask.
The announcers then went back to Blandino in his booth, as he tried to defend himself.
But they weren’t having it. They actually mocked him for his weak, nonsensical defense of the call.
Blandino has admitted to blowing calls in the past on NFL games. In the age of replays from multiple camera angles, there’s no excuse for this anymore. He has to be removed from the FOX officiating booth. Immediately.
This is the kind of thing that gives sports betting a black eye, and when you’re struggling to establish yourself as a new league, and attendance is already dismal, like the UFL, you don’t need debacles like this making matters worse.
I had no money on the game.
I’m not biased.
I’m also not blind.
What I am is disgusted at what I saw.
Because next time I might be the guy with money on the game who gets screwed.
And now back to your regularly scheduled ‘capping program.
Sunday, June 8th, we get the two UFL conference championship games.
In the early game, it’s the 6-4 Panthers taking on the 7-3 Stallions in Birmingham.
The line opened at Birm -1′ and 44′.
They played each other twice this year.
The first game was at Michigan and saw 33 points scored in a 21-12 Birmingham victory.
The second game was two weeks ago at Birmingham, a 26-22 win for the Stallions.
Here’s the key takeaway from the two regular season games:
In the first game, the Stallions were forced to start Matt Corral, who threw for only 198 yards and had two interceptions.
In game two, J’Mar Smith started and was good for 306 yards and two TDs.
He also scrambled for 31 yards, helping Birmingham convert on 11 of 13 third downs.
</p>J’Mar Smith is starting again on Sunday.
‘Nuff said.
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Michigan head coach Mike Nolan is 0-6 against Birmingham and their head coach Skip Holtz, so a play on the Stallions seems reasonable, especially with Birmingham as a small Fav of just -1′.
It also doesn’t hurt that Michigan went 1-3 SU against teams that made the postseason this year.
How good is Skip Holtz and his coaching staff?
Most pro teams who lose their starting quarterback are lucky to finish the season with a winning record. Due to injuries, Holtz was forced to use a total of SEVEN different quarterbacks in 10 games and STILL finished with the league’s second-best record at 7-3.
These same two teams met last year in the playoffs, and Birmingham came out on top 31-18, a combined score of 49.
Michigan was 10-6 to the Over in 2025.
Birmingham was 6-4 Over.
That’s a 64% edge for Overs.
When to Buy Recommendation
The Stallions opened -1′, but the hook has been dropped at most houses.
Clearly, many bettors feel that the Stallions’ long reign at the top of Spring football is coming to an end.
And yes, they don’t look as invincible as they have in the past. But if you’re betting on the Panthers, you’re looking for something to happen that has NEVER happened before – Nolan beating Holtz.
And with a point differential edge of 30 for the Stallions, I don’t see it happening this time, either.
I bought Birmingham this morning.
The opening total of 44′ is now up to 45, and I see one or two 45′ starting to show up.
This is surprising considering these are the two best defenses in the conference and playoff games usually see tighter D’s and lower scores. But I like the Over in this one, so I bought it today before it goes any higher.
My plays:
Birmingham -1
Birmingham/Mich Ov 45
Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-4
Review: Got back to .500 with a W on the St Louis/DC game Under 45′. They combined for 21.
I also picked up a win in the PredictEm forum, too (be sure to check our forum this weekend, I have my eye on a prop that I’ll post if I get the right number.)
My forum record for the regular season ends at 12-8.
Combined, my UFL record is 16-12, 57%.
With only three games left on the schedule, it’s a guarantee – I won my Battle with the Books for the UFL this year.
NEXT!!!
