WNBA Prediction Phoenix at Seattle
People don’t believe me (or they look at me like I’m from another planet) when I tell them that I prefer watching and betting on the WNBA rather than the NBA.
But it’s true.
The NBA bores me (although Wednesday night’s Ind/NY game was a good one to watch, in part because I grew up loathing all of the New York teams and I enjoyed watching the Knicks blow a game they should have won.)
While the NBA bores me, I find the WNBA interesting. In a train wreck kind of way.
Example – I saw Kelsey Plum and the Sparks put up a 7 point 3rd quarter Wednesday night.
Yes, seven, as in one-fewer-than-eight.
They followed that with a 33 point 4th.
A 7, followed by a 33.
Welcome to the WNBA.
Can you see a similar disparity of quality play in the NBA?
Sure, maybe not as ridiculous, but close.
But here’s the thing of it, for me anyway – I expect more from the NBA, they’re supposed to be professional athletes. I have no such misconceptions about the WNBA, so when they do something amateurish, such as have a shot clock violation turnover TWO PLAYS IN A ROW, it’s not irritating; it’s amusing (unless I have the Over, in which case I curse at my TV and call the players names that would make my mother ashamed of me if she heard me say them.)
When I have money on an NBA game I have no tolerance for amateurish play (like taking a two-point shot when you’re down by three with only four seconds left on the game clock – I’m talking to you Kelsey Plum.) So the WNBA amuses me and I enjoy watching and betting it more than the pros.
Which brings me to tonight’s pick: the Seattle Storm.
I’ve got a record of 1-4 in my early season WNBA article picks. And three of those four losses have involved either Phoenix or Seattle, tonight’s combatants. It’s too early in the season for me to label either one as a bad luck team for me to avoid betting on so I’m going back to the Storm tonight.
Why?
Because it’s televised on ION Network, and I want a rooting interest!
At 1-4 I should be playing a little tighter but I’ve got a whole season ahead of me to bank some WNBA money. And there’s this:
My handicapping model WF1 (Wrong Fav) says the Phoenix Mercury should be the Favorite tonight.
WF1 is 3-4 thus far this season, a losing record.
And more to the point, it’s 0-2 on road teams, and Phoenix is on the road tonight. So I’ll stick with the Fade that’s working, until it doesn’t.
Basic stats-wise, it’s not a very pretty pick.
The PPG stats show Phoenix at 85/72 (85 scored on offense, 72 given up on defense) for a +13.
Seattle is 69/76 for a -7.
That’s a differential of 20.
Ugly numbers for a Seattle bettor.
But maybe Phoenix has played an easier schedule? Let’s look at the opponents of both teams. Or, maybe I shouldn’t – this is their second meeting, they played a couple days ago and Phoenix won 81-59.
That’s a 22 point ass kicking.
More ugly numbers for a Seattle bettor like me tonight.
And it gets worse.
The Storm wasn’t even competitive.
The Mercury won ALL four quarters in their first meeting, by 8, 3, 3, and 8 points.
That’s not just regular ugly, that’s Jocelyn Wildenstein level ugly (look her up if you don’t get the reference. And no, I’m not cruel, I wouldn’t make fun of someone who’s naturally unattractive but when you do it to yourself like JW did you’re fair game.)
Both of Phoenix’s wins have come at home; this is their first road game.
It’s also the first home game for Seattle.
I point this out because home court will hopefully give the Storm some advantage tonight (and because I’m desperately reaching for ANYTHING to blot out some of the ugliness from those stats noted above.)
When to Buy Recommendation
This line was as high as a ridiculous Sea -7′.
Right now, the common number is -5′.
Our sponsor Betonline has it at -5, which is still about five points higher than I should have to lay in this matchup.
I’ll wait a little longer before buying it, hoping that bettors will look at that 22 point Phoenix win in their first meeting and pour money on them before tip off.
My buy:
Sea (wait)
Recap: 0-2
Record: 1-4
Review:
What did I say?
“All Phoenix has to do is shut down Kelsey Plum, and they should be able to cover the 5′.”
What did they do?
They allowed her to score SEVEN points in the final 26 seconds of the game.
And, to add an exclamation point to her screwing me over, with just FOUR seconds left on the clock and down by three points she shoots and scores a TWO pointer, killing any chance of me getting a win in OT.
B****.
