WNBA Prediction: New York Liberty at Washington Mystics
Friday night, gimme NY TT Ov ‘cuz they’re in Gm 2 of B2B’s.
Translation: I’m buying the Over on the Liberty’s Team Total Friday because they played Thursday night, making Friday the second of two games played on Back to Back days.
Playing Overs in the second game of B2B was very profitable last year. I detailed it in a PredictEm forum post last week but haven’t shared it in an article yet, so here’s the gist of it:
WNBA teams don’t play a lot of back-to-back games (B2B), but when they do, the record for the Over in the second game in 2024 was 17-6.
That’s a 74% situational spot to play ON.
That record could be just an anomaly, or it could be because after running up and down the court on the previous night, game two has tired thunder thighs slow to get back on defense.
Just a thought.
As with all my methods, I also tracked a few subsets and plays within the play to see if I can improve on the win percentage and uncover a stronger spot to play on.
The Sequence Subset breaks the numbers down to factor in where the games were played, a Hm game preceded by a Hm game night before, a Rd game after playing at Hm the night before, etc.
Here’s the breakdown:
Hm/Hm 4-1
Hm/Rd 5-2
Rd/Rd 4-3
Rd/Hm 4-0
All four categories have winning records, but teams playing back-to-back Road games are only one game away from not being profitable. Just something to keep in mind this season.
Another subset breaks the games into what day of the week they were played on.
Most days have the same feel to them, but not all.
Friday nights may benefit from a higher-energy crowd.
NOBODY likes to go to work on Monday, and some sports teams are no different.
And when you play most of your games on weekday evenings, Saturday and Sunday morning games have a different feel to them, different atmosphere, and different outcomes for teams.
I track those four days, and here’s what I have:
Friday 4-0
Saturday 2-1
Sunday 8-3
Monday 0-1
The 2024 Day of the Week Subset tells me to bet fearlessly on Fridays and Sundays.
Saturday is only one loss away from not having a losing record, and Monday has a losing record.
Sat. and Sun have a very small data sample, but it’s still something I want to be aware of when I’m deciding whether or not to play this situational spot in 2025.
When talking about systems that were profitable last year, I always add my standard disclaimer:
Remember – What worked one season may not work the next season.
And this system is 0-1 in 2025.
The first spot was with Atlanta, playing their second game in a row on Sunday, May 25.
The play lost, the game stayed Under.
It didn’t help that Atlanta played Connecticut.
The Sun have the worst offense in the league, averaging a pitiful 71 PPG.
On Sunday, they put up an embarrassing 55.
Friday night, we get the spot again, this time with the New York Liberty.
Here’s some stuff to consider.
Friday night games LY, all teams, Ov was 4-0.
LY (Last Year) NY appeared in B2B’s three times.
All three times, the second game went Over.
After playing Golden State at home on Thursday, the Liberty travel to Washington to play the Mystics. That puts them in the Hm-Rd sequence. Last season, these spots, all teams, were 5-2.
LY one of the three NY spots had the Liberty in the Hm-Rd sequence, like this one.
The game was on June 23rd at Atlanta.
The total was 165. They combined for 171.
The Liberty are the number one scoring offense in the league, PPG.
Their defense is number two.
Washington has the third-worst offense in the league. Going up against the second-best defense in the league tells me to not rely on Washington to get me the points I need and instead use the New York Team Total Over rather than the full game total.
The team total right now is 84.
In home games this season, Washington has given up 90 and 77 points, but the 77 was to a Fever team missing Caitlin.
New York has scored more than 84 points in four of their five games this year, including 99 and 90 on their two Road games
When to Buy Recommendation
The game opened yesterday at 168′ and is currently sitting at 162. When the line is dropping, I like to wait if I’m taking the Over, but there’s already been a more than six-point drop, which tells me some time later today a buy-back is going to start from players hunting for a middle. I’m grabbing this one now.
My buy:
NY Team Total Over 84
