DC Defenders at St Louis Battlehawks
UFL Playoff Prediction
One of the advantages of having spent so many years as an oddsmaker in Vegas is that I can spot a weak line to bet against.
I don’t win 100% of them, but I win more of them than I lose.
TJ McConnell in game one of the NBA championship series is an example.
The books made his points scored at 6′.
It should have been 7′, with added juice to the Over.
And even if you weren’t a former oddsmaker one of the books gave you a clue that the number was off when they opened it at -130 and the others all had it at -160 to-180.
The number the books posted was based on his full season averages, which are heavily weighted towards the 82 regular season games.
They didn’t give enough weight to the playoffs where his minutes and points were slightly increased.
“Slightly” being enough to make a difference, and the number they posted was soft; beatable.
Which brings us to the second game on Sunday afternoon in the UFL playoffs.
I made the St Louis Battlehawks -5′.
The number came out at -3.
I thought the -3 was soft.
And I was more than surprised when I saw it drop down to -1′.
The Battlehawks come into this game with the best record in the league at 8-2.
The DC Defenders are 6-4.
Edge to St Louis.
DC comes into the postseason on a two-game losing streak.
St Louis has won six straight.
Edge to St Louis.
The Battlehawks have the best point differential in the conference at +63.
DC is just +1, a hair away from being in the negative and a 62 point differential from their opponent this week.
HUGE edge to St Louis.
The Defenders problem has been on defense, where they are surrendering 22.4 PPG compared to the Battlehawks 16.3.
Head to Head they split the regular season.
DC won in week 3 and St Louis won in week 10.
So why did the Battlehawks open at only -3 AT HOME and drop down to -1′?
It’s not due to the injury report; both teams come into this game healthy.
It’s not a trap game, they don’t exist.
In all of my years of making odds in Vegas, in too many meetings to count, not ONCE did I hear the word “trap” used, not once was the concept of setting a trap mentioned.
Trap games exist only in the mind of sports bettors.
So why the soft number?
Because the books don’t always get it right.
And neither does the public, who took it from -3 to -1′.
But the number IS soft.
That doesn’t mean St Louis will win; this is sports betting, and nothing is ever guaranteed.
But it does mean my money’s going on the Battlehawks on Sunday.
How do you win in football during the postseason?
With defense (DC 22.4 PPG, St L 16.3) and a superior rushing game (DC has just seven rushing touchdowns this season, St Louis leads the league with 16.)
And though I don’t give it much weight at all, this pick is also a Conspiracy Theorist Special.
The members of the CTS club believe that the league wants St Louis in the championship game for two reasons:
1 – The championship game next week is being played in St Louis.
2 – St Louis has, by far, the best attendance in the UFL. The league does not want to look bad if there are too many empty seats. Having St Louis in the game negates that possibility (or at least diminishes it.)
The Battlehawks fell short of making the championship game last season, getting KO’d in the first round of the playoffs by San Antonio in a game St Louis was favored to win. Getting into the championship game this season, and playing in front of their home crowd, has a Hollywood story kind of feel to it. And the CTS guys love that kind of sh*t.
Of course, if their theories were correct the NBA finals would have at least one of the big market teams like LA, Boston, or New York in the championship game, instead of Midwest smaller market teams like OKC and Indiana.
But I hope the CTS Club gets this one correct and St Louis advances.
And I hope the books and the betting public are incorrect with their love of the Defenders.
My play:
St Louis -1′
