Boston Celtics at New York Knicks Prediction

Line: Boston -6
Time: 4:30 EST

During the 2025 postseason, I’ve only had seven games that qualified for my WF1 (Wrong Favs) system.
Overall it’s 6-2, but 0-1 on Hm teams.
Tonight it says the Celtics are the Wrong Fav, take the Knicks.
A record of 0-1 isn’t usually enough data for me to place a bet, but when looking at WF1 Hm teams during the regular season, I see a record of 15-21, a 58% Fade.
With the postseason game added, it’s a 59% Fade, and anything over 58% is usually enough for me to buy it.

After taking the opening two games in Boston, the Knicks lost at home in game three and are ahead in the series 2-1. But as everyone knows in the two losses the Celtics blew leads of 20 or more points.

It shouldn’t have happened in game one, it sure as hell shouldn’t have happened in game two, and Boston made damn sure it didn’t happen in game three – they went up by 25 at halftime, and this time closed the deal, winning by 22 points.

Blowing one 20-point lead is unusual in a playoff game, doing it twice is a freakish thing.
The Celtics are clearly the better team, you don’t consistently jump out to 20 point leads over a team that matches up well with you.
During the regular season, Boston covered the spread in three of four games against NY.
Their margins of victory were 23, 27, and 13.
ALL of those wins came by more than the six they’re laying tonight.
Their average margin of victory was 21 points.
Overall vs New York this season they’ve covered the spread in 4 of 7 games, 63%.

One of the fun things about watching the Knicks on TV is spotting famous people in the crowd (Where’s Woody been?) But is home court really an advantage for them?
In the playoffs this season they’re just 1-3 SU and ATS. Detroit beat them twice, Boston once.
Apparently, the little Jiminy-Cricket-looking Spike Lee and his celebrity pals haven’t been much help.

Tonight the books opened Boston at -6 and that’s where most shops are still at.
A few have added the hook so if you’re going to buy Boston get it early.

And for a little prop action tonight I’m taking Boston’s Pritchard Over 9′ points at a very generous price of -102 from our sponsor Bovada Sportsbook.
The NBA’s sixth Man of the Year has scored 23, 9, and 13 vs New York in this series, covering tonight’s number in two of three games, with the only miss being by one point.
In the Orlando series, he scored double digits in three of five games.
But here’s the key to this bet for me:
Tonight’s number 9′ is based on his season average of 9 PPG.
But his season average of minutes per game was just 20.
In round one v s Orlando he averaged 27 minutes per game.
In round two vs NY he’s averaging 27.
Coach Mazzulla is giving him an average of seven more minutes per game, and Pritchard has rewarded his coach’s confidence, raising his average PPG from 9 to 11.3.

My plays:

Bos -6
Pritchard Ov 9′ pts, -102

Recap: 0-2
Record: 14-16
Review: I had Nesmith for two props, Over 12′ points and Over 4′ rebounds.
He hits the first shot of the game, a three-pointer.
He gets a rebound on the Cavs first possession, but it doesn’t count because there’s an away from the ball foul.
Still, I’m off to a good start.
But midway through the second quarter, I realized I was likely looking at a 0-2 night.
The Pacers jumped out to a 41 point lead at halftime and I knew what the large lead meant – reduced minutes for the starters in the second half which was the death knoll for anyone who had their prop bets to go Over.
Sure enough, Rick Carlisle did what any smart coach would do – he rested his starters and didn’t risk injury in a game that was firmly in hand.

Nesmith saw reduced minutes in the third quarter and ZERO minutes in the fourth.
And his total points scored lands on 12.
Missed by a hook.
The rebound prop was DOA but all I needed was one point and I would have hit the Over on points scored.
And that miss by a hook cost me. Instead of getting the split I expected at worst case, and being down.3, I’m down 2.4 units, a swing of 2.7.
By the friggin’ hook.
Going into the game I had just won two straight and got my NBA back to .500 at 12-12, and my May overall number to 3-3.
Two steps up, two steps back.

Bet your NBA and MLB picks for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 when entering bonus promo code PREDICTEM at Everygame Sportsbook!