WNBA Season Wins Predictions

Golden State Valkyries Ov
Washington Mystics Un
The Golden State Valkyries
Apocalypse Now or Apocalypse Not?

The 2025 WNBA season begins on Friday, May 16th, and with it comes the inaugural season of the Golden State Valkyries.

Ya gotta admit – The Valkyries is kind of cool for a team name and uber-appropriate for a WNBA team.
Plus, it comes with a super cool, already-established fight song they can blare over the loudspeakers while the team takes the court. You can’t do any better than Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries” and the unforgettable images it provokes of Colonel Kilgore (Robert Duvall) and his Huey helicopters, machine guns blasting, descending on villagers on the Vietnamese beach in Francis Ford Coppola’s epic Apocalypse Now.

And how cool would it be if the entire arena of 20,000 fans (okay, it’s the WNBA, so 200 fans, unless Caitlin’s in town) sings/shouts out the Valkyrie war cry of, “Hoyo-toho! Hoyo-toho!” putting fear into the hearts of their visiting opponents.

Then again, this IS the WNBA, so they’re just as likely to play Helen Reddy’s “I Am Woman” or “A Woman’s Got the Power” by The A’s.
If it was up to me, I’d play The Stones “Under My Thumb.” (Yeah, I know – not everyone shares my sense of humor. And the world’s a lesser place because of it.)

But I digress.
Back to ‘capping.

The question for these Valkyries is, will the inaugural season be Apocalypse Now (destruction) or Apocalypse Not (success)?

Based on recent historical data, they’re more likely to be the villagers than the Huey’s.

The last time the league added a team was in 2008. The Atlanta Dream was more like the Atlanta Nightmare, winning just four of 30 games. That translates to a win percentage of just 11%.
Previous to that we had the 2006 Chicago Sky, who went 5-29, 14%.

The books have set the Regular Season Wins Total at 7′ and 8′ for Golden State, depending on where you play.
The number of games each team will play this season will be up to 44 from last year’s 40.
But even with the extra four games the Valkyries would still have to win 20% of their games to get the nine necessary wins for the total to go Over 8′.

Based on the results from the last two expansion teams, that looks like a steep hill to climb, which is why there’s higher juice on the Under at 8′, -128.

They do have some advantages over those last two expansion teams, such as an expanded free agency, which improves the pool of available players.

But let’s dig a little deeper.
I went back to the year 2000 when the league added four new teams.
Here’s what I see from that season:
Indiana Fever 9-23, 28%
Miami Sol 13-19, 40%
Portland Fire 10-22, 31%
Seattle Storm 6-26, 18%

Three of those four expansion teams would be a winner on an Over with a total of 8′.

I’m going to take a shot on the Valkyries to go Over based on the better talent pool they have to select from.
And the extra four games can’t hurt.

My only concern, other than the horrendous record of the last two expansion teams, is Valkyries’ head coach Natalie Nakase.
In a recent interview, she said it’s okay for her players to screw up at first because that’s what coaches are for, to help players learn from their mistakes. “We’ll be focusing on process over results,” she said, and “It’s okay to fail.”

“It’s okay to fail??!!”

Vince Lombardi would be rolling in his grave if he heard that.

The Washington Mystics Un
NOT “Into the Mystic(s)”

For my second play, I’m going to buy Under on the Washington Mystics.

Why?

Lack of experience – they have the youngest team in the league. It looks like at least five roster spots will go to rookies.

Lack of familiarity – they have a new head coach, Sydney Johnson. It will take time for chemistry to develop. Making matters more difficult, Johnson has said he wants his team to play at a fast pace, with shots taken within the first 8 seconds of their taking possession. That style of play is difficult enough to be successful at when you have experienced players who are used to playing with each other. It’s a recipe for disaster for a team with the inexperience and youth of this one. Expect a lot of turnovers and missed shots from the Mystics.

Bad Luck/Bad Sign – Washington had the sixth overall pick in the draft and chose Georgia Amoore. On Tuesday, May 6th, just 10 days before the season starts, she tore her ACL and is out for the entire season.

Expectations are low for this team coming into the 2025 season, and I expect them to meet those expectations and compete for a last-place finish.

The line for this one is available anywhere from 14′ to 15′.

(And their team song should be Van Morrison’s “Into the Mystic.”)

When to Buy Recommendation
One or two of the top books have not posted their lines yet so I’m going to wait to buy these. I’ll post the numbers I get in the PredictEm forum by Friday morning at the latest.

My plays:

GS Ov (wait to buy)
Wash Un (wait to buy)

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