WNBA prediction Atlanta at Washington

And so it begins, WNBA 2025.

Although I don’t have any recent data to work with, there’s no way I’m sitting out Opening Day.
So where’s my action going to come from?
What to do, what to do . . .

Not a lot of data to look at while trying to find an edge, so I checked:
1 – week one last year
2 – this year’s preseason
3 – my own notes on season win totals

Week One 2024

Looking at the first week of play last season, Dogs had a slight edge at 6-5.
Overs had a profitable edge at 7-3-1.

The average total (the book’s number, not total points scored per game) was 151.
Looks like the books don’t want to get beat on Overs again, here are the games and totals for opening day:
Min/Dal 164
Atl/Wash 157
LA/GS 168
All three are higher than the average number from opening week last year and by an average of 10 PPG.

My Regular Season Wins Notes

Here’s an excerpt from my NBA Regular Season Wins Total column:

“Washington head coach Johnson said he wants his team to play at a fast pace, with shots taken within the first 8 seconds of their taking possession. That style of play is difficult enough to be successful at when you have experienced players who are used to playing with each other. It’s a recipe for disaster for a team with the inexperience and youth of this one. Expect a lot of turnovers and missed shots from the Mystics.”

In the WNBA preseason, guess which team had the lowest PPG on offense?
Yup, the Mystics.
Washington averaged 72 PPG, which was 11.6 points beneath the league average of 83.6.

And in just two games, they had 38 turnovers.
That’s an average of almost five turnovers per quarter!

It was only two games, but my expectation of turnovers and missed shots seems to be an accurate prognostication. (Yeah, I should probably come up with a better word for “prognostication” to use there, but I’m feeling lazy today.)

Preseason 2025

It’s preseason, so you can’t give it a lot of weight, but these two teams played in the preseason. Atlanta won, 80-70.

Based on the above, I’m going to lay the points with Atlanta today. The Dream had a dream off-season, picking up Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones to play alongside Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Jordin Canada.

From my own personal handicapping models, home team Washington qualifies as a play for both WF1 and WF2.
Last year home teams in WF1 were 5-9 and home teams in WF2 were 7-6, for a combined 12-15, a 15-12, 55% Fade.
When I had a match, when both systems had the same pick, the record was 4-2.
A mixed bag of stats there so I’m going to go with my gut feel which tells me that Washington is in for a loooong season of losing.
Starting today.

Sports betting is always a bit of a crapshoot, even when you’re well informed and armed with stats and numbers. It’s even more so in the opening weeks of a season when you have no current data to work with. But it’s opening day, and I want it on the fun.
Buy this one early cuz I expect money to come in on the Fav and the line to go up.

My play:

Atl -6′

Bet your WNBA picks for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $50