Charlotte at North Texas
UC Davis at UC Irvine

Side and a Total Picks

I have action on two games tonight, both based on my own personal assistant for college basketball.

First up, Charlotte at North Texas, 6 pm PST.

The methodology I use for picking totals in college says this one will go Over by more than a dozen points. But . . . the record for this system is 16-31, which means it’s a 65% Fade.

The line on this game opened at 127′ and right now it’s 125′ all across the board. I usually use three as my cut off – if the line is moved more than 3 points against me I generally don’t buy it. This one slides in just under that cut-off number, so I’m buying the Under at 125′.

Overall numbers show that Charlotte is 16-12 to the Over for the season, while North Texas is 12-14. As the season winds down recent play becomes more important when handicapping due to the Motivation Factor – some teams are quitting and just playing out the string.
Looking at recent play, in the last five games, North Texas has gone over the number in tonight’s game in three of five, and Charlotte has gone over in four of five. Those numbers don’t support an under like I’m using tonight. If anything, they make the over look like the obvious play, but in sports betting, I try to avoid the obvious, so I’m going to stick with my system and the 65% Fade.

Next up, UC Davis at UC Irvine, 6 pm PST.
I’m using the home dog in this one.

My WF1 (Wrong Fav) system says the books have the wrong Favorite in this one. They opened the game at Cal Irvine -7′ and WF1 says Cal Davis should be favored. The record for WF1 home teams is a loser at 30-36. So why am I taking the home team instead of fading them? Because of a subcategory. When matched against my number for WF2 I get a subcategory with a record of 33-23, a 64% play ON.
I’ve been playing too tight this week since coming back from my illness time off. Three times the system is popped up and I didn’t play any of them. And all three won.
So, yes, I’m in the spot that I hate—jumping back on a system that’s been winning, and I haven’t been playing. But I’m tired of watching the winners go by the board without me cashing in on them, so I’m going to ride it for the rest of the week, every game that qualifies.

The line right now has the Aggies getting +7 at home, just a hook off the opener. Want some ugly numbers for this play? As Favs Cal Irvine has a record of 22-3. As Dogs, Cal Davis is just 4-11.

In the earlier meeting this year, the Cal Irvine Anteaters won at home by seven points, the same spread as today’s game. I’m hoping for a similar game tonight with the home court for Cal Davis being worth at least two or three points to let me slide in with a cover.

Recent play has Cal Davis staying within seven points in three of their last five, with one of the misses being by just one point.
Cal Irvine has covered a seven-point spread in four of the last five games.
Yeah, like I said, ugly numbers that don’t speak well for my play.

Two picks, two games where I’m going against what looks to be the obvious play. Two plays where I’m sticking by my systems and hoping the numbers continue to pay off.

My plays:

Char/N Tex Un 125′
UC Davis +7

College Basketball

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-1
Review: Banked a unit with Memphis on Sunday