St Louis at DC, UFL Prediction
Friday, May 30, 8 PM EST, on FOX
Heading into the 10th and final week of the UFL’s second season let’s take a look back and do a little accounting.
My goals coming into the season were the same as always:
Don’t lose money
Finish with a profit – ANY profit
Strive to hit 67%
And . . . HAVE FUN in my Battle with the Books.
With no real handicapping systems to use in a sport where I don’t have a lot of data to incorporate, goal number three, hitting 67%, was never a consideration.
Going into week 10 I’m at 3-4 in article picks.
I wasted a 2-0 start by betting four straight weeks against the Houston Roughnecks. After four straight losses I still believed they weren’t a good team and bet against them a fifth straight week and finally got a win.
For my forum play I’m 11-8.
Late in the season, with 7-8 weeks of data behind me, I switched to a handicapping method of Fading the touts with the worst records from the guys I was charting.
Not a very sophisticated way of ‘capping but in a new league with only one year of data/history to use I figured it was my best option.
Combined record 14-12, so I go into the last week in the black and have a decent chance to end the regular season with a profit.
I looked over my charts from last year, the UFL’s inaugural season, to see how teams performed in week 10.
Did the playoff bound teams show up, or rest their starters and use a basic, run oriented game plan?
Which of the teams that didn’t make the playoffs quit on the season and got blown out?
Here’s what I found.
Favorites went 0-4.
Overs went 1-3.
Of the four teams that were going to the playoffs, their SU record was 2-2, and their ATS record was 2-2.
Favs were 0-4, and Unders had a nice edge at 75%.
The only game that went Over was between Arlington and DC, two teams that were eliminated from playoff contention.
So, on paper anyway, it looks like Dogs and Unders may be worth taking a shot at this week.
Except . . .
As I pointed out last week in the forum, Overs entered week nine on a 17-3 run.
And ALL FOUR week nine games went Over.
That puts the streak to 21-3, 87%!
Do you know of many betting trends that increase into the 90% range after a data sample of at least 25 games?
I sure as hell don’t.
That streak, combined with last year’s week 10 numbers, tells me that Reversion Toward the Mean is in a prime position to start leveling things out.
Fortunately, if you’re looking at an Under, the books have adjusted (hopefully over adjusted) for this recent run on the Over.
UFL Week One this season saw an average posted total of 38 points in the four games.
This week, the average is 42.
I’m looking to ride some Unders despite all the Overs that have been coming in.
And why wait – I’m jumping right in on Friday night’s game, St Louis at DC, which just happens to be the one I like best this weekend anyway.
These two teams will face each other next week in round one of the playoffs, which says to me, “Vanilla offense, don’t give away your playbook and game plan, and use up a lot of clock with the running game. The number one goal is to stay healthy for next week.”
DC was out of the playoffs last year, so I have no data to consider there.
St Louis was in the playoffs last year, and in their meaningless Week 10 game, they won 13-12, a total of 25 points scored.
This season, these two met in week three.
DC came out on top 27-15, a combined 42 pts.
The total on Friday night’s game is 45′.
Both teams have their playoff spots locked in. St Louis owns the home-field advantage for next week’s game, so this week’s game has no bearing on that; one less factor to figure.
When to Buy Recommendation
I bought this one already because I don’t see the number getting any higher by kickoff.
My buy:
DC/St L Un 45′
