Memphis at Houston UFL Preview: Revenge & Spread Prediction

UFL Prediction Memphis at Houston

Mem (SU 1-4, ATS 2-3) at Hou (SU 2-3, ATS 4-1)
Saturday May 2nd, 12 pm EST

Before I get to today’s plays, here’s an eye-popping stat from the UFL for you:
Favs are just 5-15 ATS; Dogs are hitting at an incredible 75% W rate after 5 weeks of play!

I really like one of the Dogs on the board this week, so I’m hoping that trend doesn’t start to swing back the other way.
And that Dog is . . . Memphis.
Though they’re pretty much the worst team in the league, I’m cruising down the mighty Mississippi with the Showboats.
Yes, I’m betting against Houston. AGAIN.

But, aside from Dogs being the hot play right now, I have additional reasons to justify betting AGAINST the Roughnecks this week.
These include the broken clock theory that says, “Even a broken clock is right twice a day.”
Houston has been my white whale this season; I’m 0-4 picking against them. But “Call me Ishmael” because, like that fictional character, I’m surviving my play this week.
In week 3, these two teams faced each other.
They were both 0-2.
Houston came away with an 18-17 Road win.
Two weeks later Memphis was still winless at 0-4, and they were facing Birmingham, a team that has won three straight championships. Although they’re having a down year this season, the Stallions are still considered one of the league’s best. But somehow the Showboats managed to beat the Stallions 24-20 last week to get their first win.

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This week, the Showboats get a chance for revenge against the Roughnecks.
So in addition to it being a Dog year (25-5!), and the broken clock theory, I also have a little revenge mixed in with this pick.
Then there’s this:
Houston is the Fav for the first time this season, laying -4′.
It’s just the second time in their two year history that they’ve been the Fav.
The first was last year when they were -2 Favs.
To Memphis.
They lost SU 12-19.

I’m looking for history to repeat itself in this one. Memphis swept Houston last year and lost by just one point in their meeting earlier this season. The – 4′ the Roughnecks are giving in this one is too many points for what should be a close matchup again.

My plays:

Memphis +4′

Recap UFL: 0-1
Record UFL: 2-3
Review: Lost with my play against, who else? Houston.

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