Seattle Sky at Golden State Valkaries
WNBA Prediction
In Thursday’s article, I gave an update on DD Favs in CC games (Double Digit Favs in Commissioner’s Cup games.)
I noted there were two games that qualified on Friday night, Chicago at Atlanta and Dallas at Las Vegas.
I also noted that I thought Las Vegas shouldn’t be a Double Digit Fav over anybody, and they quickly went from -10 to -9, -7, and ended up at -5, so the game didn’t qualify (and they couldn’t even cover the -5, winning by four.)
My plays were Atlanta -10′ (they closed at -12) and the Under 159′ (went as high as 161, closed at 159.)
The Dream won 88-70, an easy W ATS and an Under by a one point margin (the game was on pace for an Over late in the 4th quarter but with a large lead the Dream did what a smart team always does – used up the entire shot clock to slow up the game. This allows them to eliminate any chance for a comeback. It also makes Under backers like me very happy!)
The DD HM Fav covered again, and the game stayed Under again.
Here are the updated numbers for CC DD Favs:
Hm 4-1 ATS
Rd 1-4 ATS
Hm Ov 0-5
Rd Ov 4-1
Tonight, barring any line changes, two games qualify:
LA at Min
Sea at GS
The Min game is an early start, not enough time to submit an article before deadline and leave time for people to see it so I’ll use that for a forum play.
Here, I’ll focus on Seattle at Golden State, an 8:30 EST tip-off.
First, the basics:
Sea 6-4 SU, 2-1 as Rd Favs, Ov on the Rd 2-2
GS 4-5 SU, 3-1 as Hm Dogs, Ov 2-2 at Hm.
Now let’s look at how these teams perform when in this spot, DD lines in CC games.
Seattle has not been a DD Rd Fav in a CC game.
They did have one game qualified, but it was at Hm. They won SU but lost ATS.
GS has been a DD Hm Dog in CC games twice this season.
On June 3rd, they were getting 14 points from Minnesota and lost by 11.
On June 7th they were getting 12′ from Las Vegas and they won the game SU 95-68 (I told you LV shouldn’t be a double-digit favor over anybody.)
This makes them 2-0 in this spot this season.
And I’m riding with the Valkaries tonight.
Side note – in my article on Regular Season Wins for the WNBA, I took GS Over 8′.
WNBA teams play a 44-game schedule.
The season is not even 25% of the way completed, and I’ve already got almost 50% of the wins I need from the Valkyries to cover my bet.
Hojo- Toho!
(In case anyone’s wondering WTF that means, it’s the battle cry of the Valkyries. It’s the Old Norse equivalent of “Yippee-ki-yay!” or “Yee-Hah!” if you’re more of a Red River kind of guy.)
When to Buy Recommendation
The line is sitting at -10 right now, but some houses have extra juice on the Fav.
I’ll wait to buy for a little while and see if I can get a hook or more added it to it.
If it starts to move in the other direction, grab the +10. (Also, if it drops, it may not count as a CC DD spot, depending on the line.)
My play:
GS + (Wait to buy)
Recap: 2-0
Record: 6-7
