NBA Bets Friday, March 7, 2025

NYK@LAC & SA@SAC

I played two pro games tonight, a side and a total.

Game one:
San Antonio at Sacramento

Tonight, the Spurs travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings. When I ran this game through one of the two systems I use for handicapping totals to bet my numbers say this game comes in Over the total of 233′.
The record for this play this season is 15-27, which makes it a 64% Fade!
Let’s dive into some team stats.

In favor of taking the Under:

SA games average 228 PPG.
Sac games average 231 PPG.

Both of these stats are Under tonight’s total

In Sacramento’s last five games, all five have stayed Under tonight’s number.

Not in favor of taking the Under:

On the season, both teams have a slight edge to the Over. SA 32-27, Sac 31-29.

In road games, San Antonio is 16-14 Over.
At home, Sacramento is 16-12 Over.

In three head-to-head meetings this year, two of the three games have gone Over tonight’s number.

In San Antonio’s last five games, three of five have gone Over tonight’s total.

As with every game, you can find stats to support either side, Fav or Dog, or either total, Over or Under. But as always, I give the biggest edge to my own stats and my own handicapping systems, which tell me to take the Under in this one.

Game two:
NY at LAC

I’m backing the Knicks off of their loss to the Lakers last night. New York took an eight-point lead into the 4th quarter but only scored 15 in Q4 after putting up 27, 33, and 24 in the previous three quarters. Their inability to close out the game cost them as they ended up losing in OT.

Playing on a road team in a back-to-back situation off an OT game the night before is not an enviable situation, but there’s really no travel involved as both games are in LA.
NY has been in a similar situation (playing on the road after an OT game the night before) once this season, and they got beat, and got beaten badly by 37 points. But that game was against Cleveland, the number one scoring team in the league, so I’m going to pretend not to notice that score (besides, the Knicks were off a win the previous night. Tonight they’re awful loss and a game they had in hand. I’m hoping that’ll give him a little extra incentive to play a full four quarters tonight.)

This game qualifies under my WF1 (Wrong Fav) system. My number say the Knicks should be the favorite in this one and road teams in this spot have a record of 33-20, giving me a 62% edge in this game.

This is the first head-to-head meeting between these two this season.

The Knicks have won three of their last five.
The Clippers have lost four of their last five games but are a deadly 21-9 ATS at home.
That’s hitting at a 70% clip which is unsustainable for any pro team, any sport, any league. Let’s hope the ATS pendulum starts to swing back the other way tonight.

Plays:
SA/Sac Un 233′
NYK (wait to buy this one; it’s currently at +7′, but most of those have extra juice added, and some houses have already gone to +8; I’ll post the final number that I buy in the PredictEm forum.)