NBA Prediction Houston at Golden State

Houston at Golden State Predictions

I have one other play I bought this morning.
I’m taking the Under in the Houston/Golden State game tonight.
Not a lot of stats on it, more of a gut feel play for me.
From my personal handicapping models I have a play with a slight edge for the Under at 57%, just a hair under the 58% I usually use as a minimum to make plays.

The game opened at 206.
The common number right now is 207.

In the postseason, three of the five games played thus far in this series have stayed Under.

During the regular season, 7 of 10 meetings came in on the Under.

Tonight’s number is a couple points higher than the average total in this series, 204, because of the last game played, which saw 247 points scored. But that game was an outlier, the previous four games saw 215, 197, 203, and 180. Expect tonight’s game to be more in line with those scores than the freakish last game when the Rockets hit 55% from the field.

Note: it’s Major League Baseball season! Does our sportsbook offer dimelines? Be wise! Don’t overpay!

When you look at the PPG average for both offenses, 114 for Houston and 113 for Golden State, the total of 207 looks low.
And it doesn’t look any better when you factor in PPG on defense: Houston surrenders 109, Golden State 119.
But this is a playoff game with elimination on the line for Houston, a game with two top-10 NBA defenses. I’m looking for a slower pace and tighter D tonight.

The opening number was 206, then went to 207. I see 207′ at one or two houses now.
Based on the 247 from the last game played I think there’s a chance the public may take this one up a little bit more so I’ll wait to buy it.

My plays:

Houston/GS Un (wait to buy)

Recap NBA: 0-1
Record NBA: 12-12
Review: Fell back to .500 when the Det/NY game stayed Under the 214 I bought for an Over. Then they go and put up 235 in the next game, last night. Bastards.

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