Indiana at Cleveland NBA Prediction

I’ve been waiting for this one since Sunday, April 13th. It was the final day of the season, and Cleveland was at home facing Indiana. I don’t watch a lot of NBA, but I watched this entire game and made a note for a future bet.

The Cavs, having nothing to play for (being the number one seed with home court locked up throughout the playoffs) rested nine of their 10 regulars.
Despite this, they still had a 23-point lead in the 4th quarter – with their backups.
And then . . . they blew it.
They eventually lost in overtime.

Even though they weren’t playing their stars in a meaningless game, it was still an embarrassing loss at home.
And I made a note in my log book, under the heading “Paybacks”:
If the Cavs get the Pacers in round two, take Cleveland in the first game if the spread is fewer than double digits.

The game opened at Cleveland -7′ and immediately went up to -8′.
On game day morning, it’s down to -8.
And I’m on it.

I’ll wait to buy it just in case the line drops a little bit more. It might – Indiana took three or four during the regular season.
A quick glance at that might lead you to think Indiana is the better team. But two of the three Pacer wins came in the final three games of the season when the Cavs had nothing to play for while Indy was still trying to lock up the four-seed and edge out Milwaukee to hold home-court advantage when they faced the Bucks in round one.

And though the Pacers took three of four from the Cavs, remember – Milwaukee took three of four from the Pacers during the regular season – how did that work out for the Bucks in round 1?

In their first round series versus Miami, the Cavs not only swept the Heat but they won by 21, 9, 37 and 55. Yes, 55 points in the closeout game.

All four wins were by more than the -8 they’re laying in tonight’s game.

The four wins came by an average of 30.5 PPG.
In other words, the Cavs are in Take-No-Prisoners mode.

And on top of the normal incentives for winning a playoff game, they get a chance for paybacks against Indiana for the embarrassing loss the last time the Pacers were in town.

The Cavs are 8-1 ATS the last nine games with more rest than their opponents. After their sweep of the Heat, Cleveland has had six days to rest and get ready for this one. And to think about blowing that 23 point lead in front of their home fans in the final game of the regular season.

Cleveland finished the regular season at 51-34-1 ATS, 60%, including 23-19 at home.
Indiana is just 20-23 ATS on the road, and just 2-4 ATS in their last six against Cleveland.

Also, during the postseason, I’ve been charting a model based on point differentials between my number and the book’s. The lines have been tight, but there were three games where our numbers varied by seven points or more on a Fav. No edges yet, the record is just 2-2, but one of those wins was on the Cavs.
And they qualify again today.

Cavs -8

Recap: 0-1
Record: 12-13
Review: Lost my last play with the Under in the GS/Hou game.

I can’t get any traction with my NBA play thus far this season. I was down early and got back up over .500; now I’m back to one game under .500.
And I have to factor in my two series losses, which I’ll do in a full accounting (for NBA play and the month of April) in my next column.
No time for it now as the rest of my morning is going to be spent ‘capping today’s NASCAR race and the UFL. Be sure to check the PredictEm forum for my picks on the track and the gridiron.