Oklahoma City Thunder (81-20 SU, 63-37-1 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (63-37 SU, 49-50-1 ATS)
NBA Playoffs – Game 4
Date/Time: June 13, 2025, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: OKC -6 / IND +6 (opened OKC -5.5, moved to -6.5 at some shops)
Money Line: OKC -237 / IND +208
Over/Under Total: 227
Game Overview
After a 116-107 loss in Game 3, the Oklahoma City Thunder are staring down a potential 3-1 series deficit if they can’t bounce back tonight in Indy. They’ve now dropped 2 of 3 in the series, including both road games, and their recent form hasn’t been great ATS-wise—just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 overall and 0-5 ATS on the road.
Indiana, meanwhile, continues to outperform market expectations. The Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and a blistering 20-4 SU in their last 24 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. They’ve covered 4 of their last 5 at home and have shown they can hang with this Thunder team—going 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10 head-to-head, including 2 outright wins this series.
Key Matchups & Analysis
The Pacers’ defensive activity has been the X-factor. They’ve tallied 13 and 14 steals in two of the last three games, exploiting OKC’s occasionally shaky ball security. Indiana’s +2.34 assist-to-turnover ratio (vs OKC’s 2.37) has helped them stay efficient while forcing disruption the other way. OKC still boasts the better net rating (+12.15 vs IND’s +2.34), but playoff basketball is often about the moment, and Indiana’s momentum is building.
Scoring has been fairly balanced across both sides—OKC averaging 119.49 PPG vs IND’s 117.2—but Indy is shooting a blistering 48.92% from the field, higher than the Thunder’s 47.66%. In this matchup, Indiana’s slight rebounding deficit hasn’t hurt them, thanks to their extra possessions via steals and transition play.
Situationally, this is a tough spot for the Thunder. They’re on the road, trying to avoid a 3-1 hole, and their ATS profile suggests trouble: 0-3 ATS last three road playoff games. Market movement toward Indiana—despite heavy public money on the Pacers—suggests sharp confidence in the dog here.
Betting Pick & Prediction
This line opened OKC -5.5 and was bet up to -6.5 at some shops, but not because of heavy Thunder action. Pacers are seeing 60% of the money, and it looks like smart money is backing the home team. With the way this series is playing out, and the way Indiana is defending and generating steals, this line feels inflated.
I like the Pacers +6 here. They’ve proven they can win outright (and already have), and this feels like another spot where they hang around—or even go up 3-1. Sprinkle the moneyline if you’re feeling frisky, but the spread offers solid value.
Prediction: Pacers 115, Thunder 112
