Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream
WNBA Prediction, Friday, June 13
Let’s revisit and update a look at some stats from the WNBA’s Commissioner’s Cup games, where players are competing for a chance to win prize money of more than $40,000.00 each. In particular, I’ve been focusing on games with DD Favs (Double Digit Favs of 10 or more) to see if we can isolate an edge to exploit.
In the first two weeks of the tournament, we’ve had nine of them.
ATS 4-5
Totals Ov 4, Un 5
Not much there to take advantage of, just slight edges for Double Digit Dogs and the Under.
But if you’re going to be a successful handicapper, you’ve got to dig deeper, looking for subcategories that might be profitable.
Let’s break those numbers down into the subcategory Hm/Rd (DD Favs at Home and on the Road.)
Hm 3-1 ATS
Rd 1-4 ATS
Hm Ov 0-4
Rd Ov 4-1
Well, look at that. All of a sudden, we go from no edge/no value to four different categories we can use for possible plays:
Bet ON Hm spots
Bet AGAINST Rd spots
Bet ON the Un in Hm spots
Bet ON the Ov in Rd spots
Which brings us to Friday night’s card.
(What – you thought I was doing this merely for the sake of a handicapping exercise/tutorial, with no tie-in to actual action?)
There are only two WNBA games being played on Friday night, and BOTH has DD Favs.
Let’s dive in.
But before we do, take note the date is the 13th, making it Friday the 13th.
If you’re into silly superstitions (I am), you might want to take the night off (I’m not), thinking it’s going to be bad luck to bet on Friday the 13th.
In the early game, a 7:30 EST start, the Chicago Sky are at the Atlanta Dream.
The basics:
Chi SU 2-6, ATS 3-5,
Rd ATS 2-3, Rd Ov/Un 3-2
Atl SU 6-3 ATS 6-3
Hm ATS 3-1, Hm Ov/Un 0-4
I’m looking at a league-wide stat that says, “Play the Under when you have a Commissioner’s Cup DD Hm Fav, 4-0.”
And I have a team-specific stat that says Atlanta is 4-0 to the Under at home this season.
Also, as I’ve noted before, certain days of the week have different “feels” to them and can have an effect on how teams play.
The ones I look the closest at are Friday night games and weekend early morning games.
Friday nights, league-wide, favor the Un at 8-6.
I’m looking at three different edges that say play the Under in this game:
CC DD Hm Favs 4-0
Atl Hm games 4-0
All WNBA teams, Friday night, 8-6
You see where I’m going with this?
When to Buy Recommendation
This game opened at 161 and is already down to 159′.
I bought it this morning before it goes any lower.
I’m also betting on the Dream and laying the points.
Yes, I have stats in my favor (CC DD Hm Favs 3-1 ATS, Atl is 3-0 ATS as Hm Favs), but I’m really adding Atlanta because I want to root against Chicago’s Angel Reese.
She has a reputation as an immature brat whose jealousy over the attention Caitlin Clark gets makes Solieri look like a fawning Mozart fanboy by comparison.
The league and their PR people are doing their best to repair her damaged image. I read an article in the Irish Star this morning (*Yes, I read the Star. Also Pravda, Der Sturmer, and the Washington Post) that said, “Though Reese poured her heart into the game, the Liberty still achieved a dominant 85-66 win. Yet it was Reese’s fusion of athletic prowess and graciousness that created an even more striking narrative.”
And what was this gracious move that has her boot lickers writing about a “striking narrative?”
In a post game interview she fixed an out of place eyelash on ESPN reporter Holly Rowe.
Yes, an entire article was written praising Angel Reese for fixing someone’s wayward eyelash, a lame attempt to try and polish her tarnished image.
If I was a Valley Girl from the ’80’s I’d request someone, “Gag me with a spoon.”
But I’m not, I’m a sports bettor, so I’ll place a bet on her opponent and root for them to kick her butt, just because of the sycophantic, sickening article I had to read.
Not the best of reasons to place a wager, but there it is anyway, putting “Is Friday the 13th really a bad luck day?” to the test.
The second game has the Las Vegas Aces -10 at Dallas.
I’m not sure Las Vegas should be laying Double Digits to anyone right now. I may play the total, though. Be sure to check the PredictEm forum for updates on that and any prop bets I make (against Angel Reese.)
My plays
Atl -10′
Chi/Atl Un 159′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-7
Review: I lost with Seattle -9′ on my last pick; they won by six.
*No I don’t.
