Belmont Stakes (G1) | Saratoga Race Course, Race 13 | Saturday, June 7, 2025
Purse: $2 million | Distance: 1 1/4 Miles | Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 7:04 ET
2025 Belmont Stakes Picks
- Sovereignty
- Journalism
- Baeza
Belmont Stakes Longshots
Hill Road, Heart of Honor
2025 Belmont Stakes Analysis
So far on the Road to the Triple Crown, we’ve picked the Kentucky Derby Trifecta box and the Preakness Trifecta straight! Can we do the same in the Belmont Stakes? Why not!
The 157th Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) is set for Saturday, June 7, 2025, under unprecedented conditions: it will be run at Saratoga Race Course instead of Belmont Park, owing to ongoing renovations downstate. As a result, the race known as the “Test of the Champion” will be shortened to 1¼ miles (the same distance as the Kentucky Derby) rather than the traditional 1½-mile marathon. Despite the venue change, this final jewel of the Triple Crown still offers high drama, prestige, and a $2 million purse for the field of eight elite 3-year-olds.
The top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby are set to face off again in the Belmont Stakes, including Derby winner Sovereignty and runner-up Journalism. However, with Sovereignty’s connections opting to skip the Preakness, no Triple Crown is on the line this year. Instead, the storyline shifts to whether Preakness hero Journalism can add another classic to his résumé. Journalism enters as the morning-line favorite at 8–5 odds after his gritty win in Baltimore, while Sovereignty is a close second choice at 2–1 as he attempts the rare Derby-Belmont double.
The stage is set for an exciting Derby vs. Preakness rematch, with several other talented contenders looking to play spoiler in this year’s Belmont Stakes finale.
Belmont Stakes Field and Morning Line Odds
Below is the complete field for the 2025 Belmont Stakes, including post positions, jockeys, trainers, and morning-line odds:
- Post 1 – Hill Road (10-1) – Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.; Trainer: Chad Brown
- Post 2 – Sovereignty (2-1) – Jockey: Junior Alvarado; Trainer: Bill Mott
- Post 3 – Rodriguez (6-1) – Jockey: Mike Smith; Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Post 4 – Uncaged (30-1) – Jockey: Luis Saez; Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Post 5 – Crudo (15-1) – Jockey: John Velazquez; Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Post 6 – Baeza (4-1) – Jockey: Flavien Prat; Trainer: John Shirreffs
- Post 7 – Journalism (8-5) – Jockey: Umberto Rispoli; Trainer: Michael McCarthy
- Post 8 – Heart of Honor (30-1) – Jockey: Saffie Osborne; Trainer: Jamie Osborne
This Belmont field of eight is smaller than the Derby’s 19-horse stampede, but it boasts exceptional quality. With two classic winners (Derby and Preakness) and multiple Grade 1 performers in the mix, the race offers an intriguing blend of early speed, tactical pressers, and late-closing stamina horses. Below, we break down how the race is expected to unfold and analyze each contender’s strengths and winning chances.
Belmont Stakes Pace Dynamics
Early Pace Scenario: Expect a brisk early pace courtesy of the two primary front-runners in the field: Rodriguez and Crudo. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has indicated that pace will be crucial for #3 Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial (G2) in wire-to-wire fashion and will likely be sent aggressively from the gate to outpace longshot #5 Crudo for the early lead. Crudo, likewise, is a naturally speedy colt coming off a front-running stakes win, so these two are projected to vie for the top spot into the first turn. Rodriguez and Crudo are the clear speed horses in this 1¼-mile Belmont at Saratoga, while the remaining six entrants are mostly stalkers or deep closers who prefer to settle off the pace.
With Rodriguez and Crudo ensuring an honest tempo, the race should set up favorably for the mid-pack runners and closers. Horses like Journalism, Baeza, Hill Road, and Uncaged can track a few lengths behind the leaders, while proven closers such as Sovereignty and Heart of Honor will likely drop farther back early and make one late run.
The shorter 10-furlong distance (as opposed to the Belmont’s usual 12 furlongs) could tilt the advantage slightly toward horses with tactical speed, since there’s less ground for the deep closers to work with. In fact, some horsemen have lamented losing that extra quarter mile of real estate.
Still, if Rodriguez and Crudo engage in too hot a duel up front, it could set the stage for a closer to capitalize in the stretch. Overall, bettors should anticipate a lively first half mile, a race shape that begins to tighten as the field approaches the far turn (when the stalkers move up), and a charging finish from the classiest stayers attempting to run down the pacesetters in the final furlong.
If Rodriguez gets loose and slows down the pace he could go a long way, as could Crudo, but the latter has class questions. His last two races were romps, but he moves into a whole different league here, and the more likely scenario is that he duels or forces the pace outside Rodriguez.
We expect Journalism and Baeza to make their moves on the turn and take on the speed horses while also engaging in a battle of their own. This should set the race up for a closer, and we think Sovereignty is that horse.
Take special note of any track bias throughout the day. The track is likely going to be muddy, and while Sovereignty is proven in the Churchill Downs mud, if the track is favoring speed, that could compromise his chances. If the track is favoring closers, his chances improve.
Belmont Stakes Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1. Hill Road (10-1) – Irad Ortiz Jr.; trained by Chad Brown
Hill Road arrives at the Belmont as an improving colt who has flourished since moving to Chad Brown’s barn in the spring. Originally campaigned on turf in Ireland, he switched to dirt and immediately showed promise, finishing third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in March before closing strongly to win the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) at nine furlongs. The Peter Pan is often a key prep for the Belmont, and Hill Road’s victory there suggests he can handle this 1¼-mile test. Notably, he also has back-class as a 2-year-old: he ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall at Del Mar, a 61-1 shocker that put him on the map.
Hill Road has established stamina and late speed. He’s a genuine closer who can unleash a powerful stretch kick, as seen in the Peter Pan win and his Breeders’ Cup effort. Having elite rider Irad Ortiz Jr. – one of the best at judging pace and timing a close – is a major asset. Chad Brown’s horses are typically very well-prepared for Saratoga, and this colt has already won over the track (he broke his maiden on turf in Ireland, but importantly got a win at Aqueduct on dirt and now has experience training upstate). Hill Road’s tactical style (drop back and make one run) could pay off if the early fractions are hot. Additionally, his pedigree (by Quality Road) and racing pattern imply that 10 furlongs is within his scope.
At 10-1, Hill Road offers value as a wise-guy horse who could hit the board. A win isn’t out of the question if the race collapses up front and he fires his best shot, but more likely he’s a contender for the show or superfecta slots. Including him underneath in trifectas or superfectas is a savvy move, as he’s one of the better closers outside the top favorites.
#2. Sovereignty (2-1) – Junior Alvarado; trained by Bill Mott
Sovereignty is the reigning Kentucky Derby champion, and he brings serious credentials into the Belmont. In Louisville, this Godolphin homebred delivered a dramatic victory, closing from 16th place to win the Derby by 1½ lengths over Journalism in a sloppy-run race. That effort earned him a career best 104 Beyer Speed Figure, confirming his status as one of the top colts of this crop. Trainer Bill Mott chose to skip the Preakness to give Sovereignty five weeks of rest and target a fresh Belmont run. This pattern (Derby win, pass on Preakness, aim for Belmont) has worked for past horses like Thunder Gulch and Summer Bird, and Mott is a Hall of Fame horseman adept at keeping a colt sharp for these spots. Sovereignty’s resume also includes a win in the Florida Fountain of Youth (G2) and a close second in the Florida Derby (G1) earlier this spring – he’s been consistently top-class.
As the Derby showed, Sovereignty has tremendous stamina and closing ability. Even in a 19-horse field on a messy track, he navigated through traffic, overcame clipping heels early, and mowed down the favorite (Journalism) in deep stretch. A smaller field here should make his job easier in terms of trip. His pedigree (by Into Mischief out of a Tapit mare) gives him both speed and staying power, which he has translated into results at 1⅛ miles and 1¼ miles already. Junior Alvarado knows him well and will likely give a patient ride, as this colt clearly can reel in horses with a long sustained rally. If the expected pace duel materializes, Sovereignty is one of the most likely to benefit late. It’s also worth noting he’s coming in fresh, which often helps in the Belmont. Many recent Belmont winners were those who skipped the Preakness to target this race. Mott’s experience (he won Belmont with Drosselmeyer in 2010) is another plus.
Sovereignty is a top win contender and justifiably the 2-1 second choice on the morning line. If he reproduces his Derby performance, he could certainly win the Belmont and spoil Journalism’s bid for a Preakness-Belmont double. Bettors playing multi-race wagers or exactas should include him prominently. He’s very logical for win consideration, and a must-use in all exotic tickets. The Derby-Belmont double (without a Triple Crown) is a somewhat rare feat, but Sovereignty has the class to pull it off.
#3. Rodriguez (6-1) – Mike Smith; trained by Bob Baffert
Rodriguez represents the always-dangerous Bob Baffert barn and is something of a wild card here. He did not contest the Derby or Preakness due to a minor foot issue, but he earned his Belmont spot by winning the Wood Memorial (G2) in early April with a front-running effort. In the Wood at Aqueduct, Rodriguez (with blinkers removed for the first time) shot to the lead and never looked back, defeating a solid field and giving jockey Mike Smith yet another Belmont mount. Notably, Rodriguez qualified for the Kentucky Derby (he had sufficient points and made the field) but was a scratch on Derby morning because of that hoof concern. Baffert then refocused on the Belmont, and this colt has been training forwardly since.
Speed is the name of the game for Rodriguez. He is one of the co-pacemakers in this field and has shown he can carry his speed at least 1⅛ miles (the Wood Memorial distance). Baffert colts are famously tough in the Belmont, he’s won it three times, including with Triple Crown heroes American Pharoah and Justify, and he typically has them very fit. Rodriguez has a high cruising tempo and could potentially steal the race on the front end if he shakes loose or if the track is kind to speed. The return to fast dirt should suit him (his losses in California came when chasing hot paces; he improved dramatically in the Wood when allowed to set the fractions). With Mike Smith (a three-time Belmont-winning jockey) aboard, you have an experienced hand who knows how to nurse a speed horse along in this race (Smith rode front-running Justify in the Belmont, for example). Also, Rodriguez is relatively fresh – he hasn’t run since April 5 – so he’s had time to recover and should be coming in a fresh horse. Baffert has indicated that a fast early pace is crucial for Rodriguez’s chances; they intend to send him to the lead and play “catch me if you can”. If he can outsprint Crudo early, Rodriguez could dictate terms and prove hard to reel in.
Rodriguez is an intriguing upset candidate if the race dynamics tilt toward speed. He’s likely to be on or near the lead turning for home, and if he’s gotten reasonable fractions, he could have enough left to hang on for the win or a major placing. However, beating both Sovereignty and Journalism will require the race to play out ideally for him. More likely, he could hang around for a minor award (third or fourth) even if one of the top closers runs him down late. He’s worth using in exactas and trifectas, especially on the front end of those bets if you believe he can spring the gate and not look back. Dismiss him at your peril. Baffert’s Belmont entrants often outrun their odds.
#4. Uncaged (30-1) – Luis Saez; trained by Todd Pletcher
Uncaged is a longshot in this field and will need a form reversal to be competitive. Trained by Todd Pletcher (who has four Belmont wins to his name), Uncaged started his career with some promise. He impressively won his debut at Saratoga last summer in a sprint, but he is relatively lightly raced with just four starts. After a winter break, he reappeared in spring and cleared his allowance condition, earning his way into the Belmont discussion. In his most recent outing, however, Uncaged was well-beaten in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3), finishing sixth behind Hill Road by a large margin. That effort exposed some class and distance questions, as it was his first try beyond one mile. Still, his connections are taking a shot at this classic, hoping the colt can improve with experience.
Uncaged does have a couple of positives to point to. First, he appears to love Saratoga, his maiden victory came over this very track (albeit at 6 furlongs) last August. Sometimes horses that like Saratoga’s surface wake up when they return to it. Second, he has the Pletcher training advantage. Pletcher is no stranger to Belmont success and wouldn’t run this horse here without believing he could outrun his odds.
Uncaged is by Curlin and out of a mare by Pioneerof the Nile, so his pedigree suggests that longer distances could eventually agree with him as he gets older. Jockey Luis Saez is a two-time Belmont Stakes winner (2019 and 2021) and is known for aggressive, smart rides; he may try to put Uncaged into the race early from post 4. In fact, with his tactical speed, Uncaged could find himself in a good stalking spot behind Rodriguez and Crudo. If Saez can settle him in the second flight, the colt might have something left to grind on in the stretch.
At 30-1, Uncaged will likely be one of the longest shots on the board, and rightly so given his recent form. In a best-case scenario, he could hang around for a minor award if several others falter. Pletcher and Saez are a high-caliber team, so an improved showing isn’t impossible. However, a win would be a major shock. Bettors may consider using him only at the deepest bottom of superfectas if they believe he can clunk up late, but otherwise he’s a pass in most wagers. Simply finishing mid-pack would be a moral victory for this colt given the competition.
#5. Crudo (15-1) – John Velazquez; trained by Todd Pletcher
Crudo brings an element of raw speed and upside to the Belmont Stakes. Lightly raced with just three career starts, this chestnut colt has won two of them in front-running fashion. He is coming off a dominating 7½-length victory in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico, where he set the pace and drew off impressively at 1 1/16 miles. That performance stamped him as a late-blooming contender and convinced his connections to make a jump into the Belmont. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, who, as mentioned, is highly adept in the Belmont. Crudo’s pedigree is sterling: he’s a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, indicating there’s plenty of classic stamina and quality in his blood.
Strengths: Crudo’s greatest asset is his early pace. In each of his wins, he broke on top and never looked back, including that wire-to-wire effort in the Sir Barton. Few in this field can match his acceleration from the gate; he’s arguably even a touch quicker early than Rodriguez, which could see him vying for the lead. Having Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez (a two-time Belmont winner) in the irons is also a big plus. Johnny V is a master at judging pace and has piloted many Pletcher horses to Belmont success. Pletcher has noted Crudo’s pattern of improving with each start, and the Belmont will be only his fourth race, meaning he could still have a leap forward to make. His victory at Pimlico showed he can handle two turns and still finish strongly; the fact he won by open lengths suggests he was far superior to that field. Sometimes horses coming out of easier spots can surprise in the Belmont if they get loose on an easy lead. At 1¼ miles on a track like Saratoga (with a relatively short stretch), a lone speed horse can occasionally steal the race if left unchecked. Crudo’s Justify lineage implies he should handle the distance, and his dam Blossomed adds to his class. In summary, Crudo is a live longshot with a pace advantage – if he shakes free early and rations his speed, he could take this field a long way.
Crudo is listed at 15-1 on the morning line, and that feels about right. He’s the kind of colt that could hit the board at a nice price if the race breaks his way (e.g. if he gets loose on an easy lead or simply out-foots Rodriguez and relaxes). Winning is a taller order. He’ll have to run the race of his life and fend off multiple Grade 1 closers. Still, if you’re looking for a price play, Crudo has upside and the right connections. He’s worth inclusion in exotic wagers, perhaps keyed in second or third in exactas/trifectas for a potential payoff booster. Backing him to win outright is a bit risky given the class test, but stranger things have happened in Belmont history with lone-speed longshots. Keep him on your radar as the possible surprise package.
#6. Baeza (4-1) – Flavien Prat; trained by John Shirreffs
Baeza may be one of the most intriguing horses in the race. This bay colt has not yet won a stakes race, but he’s been knocking on the door at the highest level and has a tremendous pedigree story. Baeza was a late entrant to the Kentucky Derby field (drawing in from the also-eligible list), yet he outran expectations to finish third in the Derby, only 1¾ lengths behind Sovereignty and Journalism. In fact, he was gaining on the top two late in that 10-furlong Derby despite breaking from the far outside post 19. Prior to that, he ran a very game second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), where he was only narrowly beaten by Journalism. Trainer John Shirreffs (of Giacomo and Zenyatta fame) has brought this colt along carefully, and Baeza’s only win so far was a one-mile maiden race at Santa Anita in February. Still, with a record of 5: 1-2-1, he’s shown up in every race. Even more eye-catching, Baeza’s dam is Puca – making him a half-brother to 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch and 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. That means his mother has produced classic winners in back-to-back years, and Baeza is attempting to make it three straight Triple Crown race victories for the family, an almost unprecedented feat in modern times.
Baeza’s Derby and Santa Anita Derby efforts mark him as a legitimate contender at the Grade 1 level. He has displayed a strong closing kick; in the Derby, he was flying at the finish, suggesting that more distance could be to his liking. The move to 1¼ miles clearly suited him (his maiden win was at a mile, but the longer trip seems better), and it stands to reason that he’ll handle Belmont’s 1¼ just fine and possibly would have loved the full 1½. Under Flavien Prat, an excellent rider who stays aboard, Baeza should get a well-timed ride; Prat knows when to produce a late runner. Another plus: Baeza has tactical versatility. In California he showed he can sit mid-pack and pounce (as in the Santa Anita Derby where he was fairly close to Journalism throughout), but he can also drop farther back and make one run (as in the Kentucky Derby, forced by the wide post). That gives Prat options from post 6. He can follow Sovereignty if that rival makes an early move, or he can bide his time and try to outkick Sovereignty and Journalism late. Baeza’s breeding and stamina cannot be overstated: by McKinzie (a Grade 1 winner at routes) out of a mare who has produced two classic distance winners, he is built for these races. Also, John Shirreffs is known for patience and peaking horses for big days. Reports are that Baeza settled in nicely at Saratoga with some creature comforts (including his daily liquefied carrot “smoothie” as a treat in the barn to keep him happy). A content, fit horse with improving form is a dangerous combination.
Many observers see Baeza as the primary upset threat to the two classic winners. He’s peaking at the right time, has the pedigree and stamina, and is improving every race. A victory is well within reach, especially if he continues progressing. He was only a length or two off beating both Journalism and Sovereignty in the Derby, and a slightly better trip or a bit more pace could put him over the top. At 4-1, he offers a bit more value than those two as well. Baeza is a must-use in all exotics and could absolutely be played to win if one is looking for an alternative to the favorite. The fairytale of his dam producing three straight classic winners is alive, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Baeza wearing the blanket of carnations when the dust settles.
#7. Journalism (8-5) – Umberto Rispoli; trained by Michael McCarthy
Journalism enters the Belmont Stakes as the deserving favorite and most accomplished horse in the field. This colt has been a star since his 2-year-old days and boasts an impressive record of 7: 5-1-1. After winning four consecutive races in California, including the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1), he went into the Kentucky Derby as the 7/2 favorite. In the Derby, he led briefly in the stretch but was passed late by Sovereignty, finishing a strong second on the sloppy track. He quickly rebounded two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes (G1), where he fought through traffic and prevailed by half a length. That win makes him the only classic winner in this field aside from Sovereignty. Trainer Michael McCarthy (a former assistant to Todd Pletcher) has expertly managed Journalism’s campaign, and jockey Umberto Rispoli has been aboard for all of the colt’s major wins. Journalism’s career highlights also include a 108 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Felipe, the highest Beyer figure achieved by any horse in this field. He’s a son of Curlin (who sired a previous Belmont winner, Palace Malice) and out of the mare Mopotism, so his breeding suggests both class and the ability to get distance.
Journalism has a formidable combination of speed, versatility, and toughness. He can win on or close to the lead or come from just off the pace. In the Derby, he showed he could adapt to a sloppy track and still run big. In the Preakness, he demonstrated real grit, bulling through a tight spot in the stretch and outfinishing a tenacious rival. That kind of determination will serve him well in the Belmont’s long battle. Coming into this race, Journalism has the benefit of triple crown seasoning – this will be his third race in five weeks, a challenging schedule, but he has handled each step so far. His Preakness performance indicated that the quick turnaround didn’t faze him; if anything, he might even thrive on racing frequently (some horses do). His tactical speed means Rispoli can place him wherever comfortable, likely he will sit just off the two early leaders (Rodriguez and Crudo), ensuring he’s in striking range turning for home.
It’s worth noting that at 1¼ miles, Journalism has already proven effective; he nearly won the Derby at that trip and only lost to a good-trip closer. With the Belmont being the same distance this year, there’s no new stamina test beyond what he’s done. Another key point: experience at Saratoga. McCarthy shipped Journalism to Saratoga right after the Preakness to train over the track, and he’s had a workout there, so he’s acclimated. He’s been described as looking energetic and happy in his gallops, indicating he bounced out of the Preakness in great shape. With five wins (including two Grade 1s) and consistently high speed figures, Journalism has proven class and if he runs his race, they all may have to improve to beat him.
Journalism is rightly the 8-5 morning-line favorite and is the horse to beat. He has all the tools to succeed and would be a popular winner, as he narrowly missed the Derby but could still clinch two jewels of the Triple Crown. In betting terms, Journalism will be on top of many tickets. He’s a clear win candidate and a logical key horse in exotics. If you’re a fan of consistency, it’s hard to go against him. That said, at a short price, some may try to beat him for better value. But leaving him out entirely would be dangerous, he’s too talented and game. Look for Journalism to be prominently positioned throughout and to be one of the last still fighting in the final furlong. If he reproduces his best form, he very well could cross the finish line first and cement his status as the top 3-year-old of the spring.
#8. Heart of Honor (30-1) – Saffie Osborne; trained by Jamie Osborne
Heart of Honor is the international wild card in this Belmont. British-bred and trained by Jamie Osborne, this colt took an unconventional path to the Triple Crown. He spent the winter in Dubai, where he ran a strong race in the UAE Derby (G2), finishing a close second in that 1³/₁₆-mile contest in late March. Instead of the Kentucky Derby, his connections pointed him to the Preakness as his U.S. debut. In the Preakness Stakes, he had a rough start; he was fractious in the gate, broke slowly, and trailed the field by about 15 lengths early. Despite that, he managed to pass a few tiring horses to finish fifth, about 8¾ lengths behind Journalism. It wasn’t a threatening effort, but it was a learning experience. Now, with that race under his belt, Osborne brings Heart of Honor to the Belmont, hoping that added experience and distance will lead to improvement. A notable storyline is jockey Saffie Osborne (the trainer’s daughter) retaining the mount. She will attempt to become only the second female rider ever to win the Belmont (following Julie Krone in 1993).
Heart of Honor’s prior distance experience is a plus. He has already run well at 1³/₁₆ miles in Dubai, which indicates that stamina is one of his assets. If this Belmont had been the full 1½ miles, many thought he could have been an interesting longshot; even at 1¼ miles, he should have no problem with the trip. The colt has shown he can handle different surfaces (UAE Derby was on dirt, and he adapted from European training to Dubai to U.S. racing). With one U.S. start now, he might move forward. European imports often improve in their second American race after getting used to the gate procedures etc. Trainer Jamie Osborne is a savvy horseman; he wouldn’t persist here if he didn’t see something in this horse. It’s also encouraging that Heart of Honor did make up ground in the Preakness after that horrible start. He didn’t quit, which hints at some determination. The pace setup in the Belmont could favor a closer like him if the leaders duel. Additionally, he’s drawn the outside post (#8), which should allow Saffie Osborne to keep him in the clear and avoid any kickback or traffic. He can drop back and then try to loop the field with a late run. The historical angle: a British-bred hasn’t won the Belmont since 1960 (Celtic Ash), but Heart of Honor has a chance to make a little history if he can pull off an upset. Lastly, the unique father-daughter trainer-jockey combination is a feel-good story; sometimes those storylines have a way of producing magic on big days.
Heart of Honor is an outsider with a hint of upside. One could envision him picking up a check (finishing fourth or fifth) if things go smoothly and his Preakness taught him something. Winning would require a major surprise and likely a meltdown from several key rivals. From a betting perspective, he’s a fun longshot to include if you are playing superfectas and want a bomb in fourth, or maybe third, hoping he clunks up. The new distance and added experience could lead to a better showing than at Pimlico, but catching all seven others is a tall order. Most likely, Heart of Honor will be seen running on late, passing tiring horses, but probably not enough to threaten the principals. Connections would likely be delighted to see him hit the board. As fans, keep an eye on him if only for the unique story; but as bettors, calibrate expectations appropriately for this 30-1 shot.
Belmont Stakes Wagering Strategies
This Belmont Stakes presents a compelling matchup between the proven class of the field (Journalism and Sovereignty) and several up-and-comers with credible shots (Baeza in particular, and perhaps Rodriguez). The pace is expected to be honest, thanks to Crudo and Rodriguez ensuring a good tempo. That should set the table for the best horses to show their stuff in the stretch, without the extreme marathon test that Belmont Park’s 1½ miles usually poses. The temporary Saratoga venue (1¼ miles) means this race could play out more like the Derby, favoring a combination of stamina and tactical speed, rather than a grinding endurance contest. In such a scenario, Journalism’s tactical versatility and resilience make him the horse to beat, but Sovereignty’s late kick with more rest is a very serious threat. Baeza is the wild card among the top trio. If he continues his ascending form cycle, he’s right there with a chance to win. It would not surprise the experts if these three Derby veterans dominate the finish once again.
Keep an eye on Rodriguez as the best of the rest. The Baffert trainee could take a big step forward off the layoff and, if left alone too long on the lead, might prove hard to catch. Among longshots, Hill Road appears the most viable for an upset or at least to hit the board – he’s improving and will love a pace to run at. Crudo has the speed to stick around longer than people expect and could hang on for a minor placing if he doesn’t overcook it early. Uncaged and Heart of Honor, while not as credentialed, both have angles (track affinity for Uncaged, and second-start-in-America for Heart of Honor) that could see them outperform their odds slightly, though a win for either would be a major shock.
We’ll play Sovereignty to win and place and wheel him top and bottom in the Belmont Exacta with Journalism and Baeza, playing a bigger ticket with him on top. We’ll be hoping that Journalism and Baeza get in a fight with the pacesetters to set up Sovereignty’s late run.
We’ll also play our top three selections first and second in Belmont Trifectas with ALL, box them, and play them in the first three slots of the Belmont Superfecta with ALL in the fourth slot, taking an extra ticket with Sovereignty on top of Journalism and Baeza in the second and third spots. Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza are all top class horses and this should be great battle to watch down the stretch.
We’re hoping Sovereignty gets his crown.
