Indiana at OKC: NBA Prop Bet for tonight
One of the things that concerns me when I bet on a player from Indiana to go Over his points total is the play of TJ McConnell.
He’s a ball hog.
I’m watching the game, hoping the guy I bet on, like Nesmith, for example, will get a chance to take a shot. But it seems I do a lot of yelling at my TV, reminding McConnell that he has teammates that he can pass the ball to. That, as their point guard, he’s SUPPOSED to pass the ball to.
I don’t have the stats or math on it, to show how many shots he takes himself as opposed to assists attempted, I just know that whenever I see him I find myself yelling at my TV, “Pass the rock, you f****** ball hog!”
But tonight, I won’t be chiding him for not passing the ball (chiding??!!)
Tonight, I’ll be yelling, “Shoot it, Mo’Fo!”
Because I’m taking his player point total Ov 6′, -130 at our sponsor Betonline.
Here are his season averages:
17.9 minutes played
9.1 PPG
How has he faired during the playoffs?
Let’s break it down by minutes and points scored in each of their three series.
First up was Milwaukee.
Game by game he was (minutes/PPG):
15/11, 16/6, 17/0, 22/15, 18/17.
He surpassed tonight’s total in three of five games.
Next up was Cleveland.
15/7, 14/4, 21/12, 18/13, 10/0.
He surpassed tonight’s total in three of five games.
In the last series vs New York.
14/10, 14/10, 15/12, 19/6, 18/7, 14/3.
He surpassed tonight’s total in four of six games.
Combined, he scored more than tonight’s 6′ in 10 of 16 games. That 62%.
In the opening game of each series, he surpassed the number in game one tonight.
In two of the six games, he fell short by a hook, landing on six.
In two of the remaining four games where he didn’t hit tonight’s number, he came in at zero, and it can’t be blamed on a lack of minutes played. He just had a poor shooting night in those games against Cleveland and Milwaukee.
But how will we do against the Thunder tonight?
For a clue, let’s look at how he did during the two regular season games vs OKC:
13/19, 8/13.
In BOTH games, he’s surpassed tonight’s number.
In one of them, he only needed 8 minutes to almost double the number I need tonight.
Yes, at -130, it’s 20-25 cents higher than the average juice of 105/110, a bit pricey. , but not when you consider that at 6′, it should be -160 to -180, then 20-25 cents higher is a bargain.
His minutes have not diminished during the postseason, so I’m pretty sure he’ll get enough minutes tonight to get my 6′.
And I’m ABSOLUTELY sure he’ll take enough shots (Friggin’ Ball Hog.)
The total on tonight’s game, 230′, equals the highest point total on any Pacer game this postseason. It shapes up to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game, and TJ should get plenty of opportunities to hit this number.
My play:
TJ McConnell Ov 6′ pts, -130 BetOnline
My NBA season accounting summary is in my NBA thread in the PredictEm forum.
I got beat by the Books during the regular season.
I had a losing record in article picks but a winning record on forum plays, and combined, I’m only down 1.9 units.
I have a possible seven games left in the championship series to try and get Back in Black (so I don’t think it goes seven; OKC will probably make sure it works for the Pacers.)
If I get to -5 units, I’ll shut it down – ALWAYS have an endgame in mind for your bankroll, whether you’re up or down.
