Firekeepers Casino 400 Predictions: Hamlin Seeks Michigan Redemption – Sharp Angles & Value Bets!

by | Jun 5, 2025 | nascar

FireKeepers Casino 400 Race
  • Race: Firekeepers Casino 400
  • Date: Sunday, June 8, 2025
  • Track: Michigan International Speedway
  • Time: 2pm ET
  • Channel: Prime

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Another new winner for 2025 hit victory lane on Sunday! Ryan Blaney picked up his first victory of the season in Nashville after leading 139 of the 300 laps. The final 103 laps ran under green, giving Blaney a 2.83-second edge over runner-up Carson Hocevar. This tied Hocevar’s career-best finish from Atlanta earlier in the year. For Team Penske, this was a major moment, as all three drivers are now locked into the playoffs.

The Nashville race finalized the 32-car field for the NASCAR In-Season Challenge. The winner of this five-race stretch earns a $1 million prize, with bracket seeding determined at Michigan, Mexico City, and Pocono. The format follows a bracket-style tournament, where drivers are eliminated week by week throughout the summer.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Michigan International Speedway awaits, a classic superspeedway featuring a 2.0-mile D-shaped oval layout. It offers 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 12 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. Long green-flag runs often shape the race, allowing front-runners to build big leads — much like Blaney’s performance last week.

Odds and Value Picks

Michigan has a deep racing history, with several active drivers logging more than 30 starts. A combination of veterans and rising stars are set to contend this weekend.

  • Winner: Denny Hamlin (+650)
    Hamlin has 34 starts at Michigan, with an average finish of 12.2 and 2 wins. He’s recorded 2 top-5s and another top-10 in his last three races here. Though winless in that span, he has the best average finish among active drivers. He’ll be looking to bounce back after a tough outing in Nashville.
  • Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher (+2200)
    Buescher has quietly put together solid results, including a win and an average finish of 7.7 in his last 3 starts. He’s hunting for his first win of 2025 and Michigan presents one of his best opportunities.
  • Dark Horse: Carson Hocevar (+2200)
    With two runner-up finishes already in 2025, Hocevar is showing real potential. He finished 10th in his only start at Michigan, and with momentum on his side, he’s a sleeper worth watching.

Top 16 After Last Week’s Race

  1. William Byron
  2. Kyle Larson
  3. Christopher Bell
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Chase Elliott
  6. Tyler Reddick
  7. Ryan Blaney
  8. Joey Logano
  9. Ross Chastain
  10. Bubba Wallace
  11. Chase Briscoe
  12. Alex Bowman
  13. Austin Cindric
  14. Chris Buescher
  15. Kyle Busch
  16. Ryan Preece

Kyle Busch clawed back into the top 16 after a strong showing in Nashville, gaining four spots. Meanwhile, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. tumbled five positions and dropped out of contention. Neither driver has seen much success at Michigan, so their ability to rebound will be under scrutiny. Expect an afternoon full of high speeds and fierce competition at Michigan International Speedway!