Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Prediction & Best Bets | Red-Hot Rodon Looks Unstoppable

Last Updated: June 3, 2025 at 10:30 AM ET

The AL East-leading New York Yankees (36-22) return home after a challenging West Coast trip to host the Cleveland Guardians (32-26) in a compelling interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. This pitching showdown features Cleveland’s solid right-hander Tanner Bibee against New York’s Carlos Rodon, who’s been on an absolute tear with six straight wins. After analyzing the matchup extensively, I’m seeing clear edges for the home team in what should be a low-scoring affair dominated by Rodon’s electric stuff against a Guardians lineup that’s struggled to generate consistent offense on the road.

Quick Picks:

• Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+145) ★★★★☆
• Top Prop: Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105) ★★★★☆
• Value Play: Under 8 Total Runs (-115) ★★★☆☆

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement

Market	Cleveland Guardians	New York Yankees
Moneyline	+165	-185
Run Line	+1.5 (-165)	-1.5 (+145)
Total	Over 8 (-105)	Under 8 (-115)

Opening Line: Yankees -175, Total 8

Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers

The slight movement on the Yankees from -175 to -185 indicates steady professional backing despite nearly 60% of early tickets landing on the home favorite. What’s more telling is the run line staying relatively stable while the total has seen the under juice strengthen from -110 to -115. Professional bettors clearly respect Rodon’s current form and Bibee’s ability to keep games close, though they aren’t rushing to back Cleveland at the current price. I’m seeing significant sharp interest in player props involving Rodon’s strikeout total, with his K-prop already being pushed from 7 to 7.5 at most books.

Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee vs Carlos Rodon – Who Has the Edge?

Cleveland Guardians: Tanner Bibee (4-5, 3.86 ERA)

• Coming off a rough outing against the Dodgers (4 ER in 5 IP)
• Solid 50:21 K:BB ratio across 63 innings, though his command has wavered recently
• Opponents hitting .247 against him with a concerning 1.27 WHIP
• Has struggled on the road with a 4.38 ERA compared to 3.25 at home

New York Yankees: Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.60 ERA)

• Currently on a spectacular run – 6-0 with a 1.27 ERA over his last eight starts
• Elite 90:26 K:BB ratio in 72.2 innings with a dominant 0.94 WHIP
• Coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, including a 7 IP, 10 K masterpiece against the Angels
• Has owned Cleveland throughout his career (9-5, 2.66 ERA in 22 appearances)

Advantage: Significant edge to New York. Rodon is pitching at a Cy Young level right now, and his career success against Cleveland (including holding Jose Ramirez to a .220 average) gives him a substantial advantage over the solid but inconsistent Bibee.

Bullpen Breakdown

The Yankees’ bullpen may be without closer Luke Weaver (hamstring injury), but their relief corps remains one of baseball’s deepest. Fernando Cruz is returning from the IL, and despite Weaver’s absence, the combination of Devin Williams, Tim Cook, and Mark Leiter Jr. provides elite late-inning coverage. Cleveland’s bullpen has been reliable (3.67 ERA, 8th in MLB), but they’ve shown vulnerability on the road where their ERA balloons to 4.28. With Rodon likely to work deep into the game, the Yankees should have the fresher arms for the late innings, giving them a clear edge if this becomes a battle of the bullpens.

Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter

• The Yankees are 18-9 at home this season and have won 7 of their last 8 games at Yankee Stadium
• Cleveland took 2 of 3 from the Yankees in their April series, but that was before Rodon’s hot streak began
• The Guardians are just 14-15 on the road this season and averaging only 3.8 runs per game away from home
• New York is 8-0 in Rodon’s last 8 starts and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts
• Cleveland is 1-3 in Bibee’s last 4 road starts and 7-12 in their last 19 games at Yankee Stadium
• The under is 5-1 in Rodon’s last 6 starts and 4-1 in Bibee’s last 5 road outings

Jose Ramirez vs. Carlos Rodon: The Key Matchup

While Jose Ramirez has been scorching hot (.426 over his last 13 games), his history against Rodon tells a different story. In 50 career at-bats against the Yankees’ lefty, Ramirez has managed just a .220 average with zero home runs. This matchup could prove decisive, as Ramirez has been the engine driving Cleveland’s offense. If Rodon can continue his dominance over the Guardians’ star third baseman, it significantly diminishes Cleveland’s chances of generating enough offense to compete in this game.

Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game

Yankee Stadium has been playing more pitcher-friendly than its reputation suggests this season, with a runs factor of 0.98 (slightly suppressing scoring). Tonight’s weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s with 8-10 mph winds blowing in from left field, which should further favor the pitchers. Bibee’s tendency to give up fly balls (42.7% FB rate) could be problematic in this venue despite the helpful wind, as Yankee Stadium remains one of the most homer-friendly parks for left-handed hitters. The short porch in right could be a factor if Aaron Judge or Ben Rice get their pitch, while Rodon’s ground ball tendencies match well with the current conditions.

Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Guardians-Yankees Showdown

Primary Play: Yankees -1.5 (+145)

The value on the run line at +145 is too good to pass up given Rodon’s current form. He’s been absolutely dominant during his six-game winning streak, and the matchup against a Cleveland offense that struggles on the road (14-15 record, 3.8 runs per game) sets up perfectly. The Guardians’ inability to hit Rodon historically (particularly Ramirez) combined with the Yankees’ 18-9 home record makes this a strong play. I expect Rodon to work deep into the game, minimizing exposure to New York’s Weaver-less bullpen. At +145, I’m willing to risk the 1.5 runs for the substantial return.

Strong Value Play: Under 8 Total Runs (-115)

This total feels a run too high given the pitching matchup and conditions. Rodon has allowed just 3 total runs over his last 27 innings, while Bibee has held opponents to 3 runs or fewer in 7 of his 11 starts this season. Add in the moderate wind blowing in and both teams’ tendency to play to the under in their respective starter’s recent outings (5-1 in Rodon’s last 6, 4-1 in Bibee’s last 5 road starts), and I see significant value on the under, even with juice at -115.

Worth Considering: Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Rodon has been a strikeout machine lately, recording 8+ Ks in 6 of his last 8 starts, including 10 in his most recent outing against the Angels. Cleveland strikes out at a 22.7% clip (10th highest in MLB), and Rodon should be able to work deep into this game given his recent efficiency. The plus-money odds make this an appealing proposition considering his current form and the matchup. I’d play this up to -110.

Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup

Player	Prop	Odds	Rating
Carlos Rodon	Over 7.5 Strikeouts	+105	★★★★☆
Aaron Judge	To Record an RBI	+110	★★★★☆
Jose Ramirez	Under 1.5 Total Bases	-125	★★★☆☆
Paul Goldschmidt	Over 1.5 Total Bases	+120	★★★☆☆
Tanner Bibee	Under 5.5 Strikeouts	-135	★★★☆☆

Final Thoughts: Rodon’s Dominance Will Be The Difference

This game sets up as a classic pitching showcase that should favor the Yankees. Carlos Rodon is pitching at an elite level right now, and his career success against Cleveland (particularly against their best hitter) gives New York a substantial advantage. While Bibee is certainly capable of keeping this close, the Yankees’ superior offense and home-field advantage should be enough to secure not just a win, but a comfortable one. Expect Rodon to dominate for 6-7 innings, with the Yankees’ offense doing just enough damage against Bibee to cover the run line.

Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Guardians 1