Pacers vs. Knicks Game 5: Expert Prediction & Point Spread Analysis

by | May 29, 2025 | nba

Obi Toppin Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks: Game 5 Betting Preview

Date & Time: Thursday, May 29th | 8:00 PM ET

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

TV Coverage: TNT

Point Spread: Indiana Pacers +4 / New York Knicks -4

Total: 222.5 points

Money Line: Indiana Pacers +146 / New York Knicks -174

Series Status

This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference playoff series. The Pacers lead the series following their 130-121 victory in the previous game.

Previous Game Recap

Final Score: Indiana Pacers 130, New York Knicks 121

The Pacers covered as 3-point home favorites in a high-scoring affair that went well over the 219.5 total. A pivotal 13-0 run broke a 64-64 tie, giving Indiana a 77-64 lead. The Pacers led 102-91 entering the 4th quarter and held off a late Knicks rally (30-28 in the final period).

Team Analysis

Indiana Pacers (50-32 SU, 47-47 ATS)

  • Season Record: 50-32 SU, 47-47 ATS
  • Conference Standing: 4th in Eastern Conference
  • Last 10 Road Games: 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS (averaging 119 PPG, allowing 117 PPG)
  • Last 10 Games as Underdog: 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS

New York Knicks (51-31 SU, 50-48 ATS)

  • Season Record: 51-31 SU, 50-48 ATS
  • Conference Standing: 3rd in Eastern Conference
  • Last 5 Home Games: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS (averaging 105 PPG, allowing 110 PPG)
  • Last 3 Games as Favorite: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS

Injury Report

Indiana Pacers

  • Isaiah Jackson (Out) – Achilles

New York Knicks

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (Questionable) – Knee

Key Player Performances (Previous Game)

Indiana Pacers

  • Tyrese Haliburton: 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds (triple-double), 5 three-pointers at 41.7%
  • Pascal Siakam: 30 points, 3 three-pointers at 75%
  • Bennedict Mathurin: 20 points
  • Aaron Nesmith: 16 points

New York Knicks

  • Jalen Brunson: 31 points, 5 assists
  • Karl-Anthony Towns: 24 points, 12 rebounds
  • OG Anunoby: 22 points

Team Statistics (Previous Game)

Indiana Pacers

  • Field Goal Percentage: 51%
  • Three-Point Shooting: 13 made at 40%
  • Free Throws: 27/32 (84.4%)
  • Defense: 11 steals, 4 blocks, allowed 46% FG shooting

New York Knicks

  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.3%
  • Three-Point Shooting: 12 made at 42.9%
  • Free Throws: 33/39 (84.6%)
  • Defense: 7 steals, 4 blocks, allowed 51% FG shooting

Head-to-Head History

In recent matchups between these teams, the Pacers hold a 3-2 advantage against the spread. The average scoring margin has been extremely tight at 0 points per game, with games averaging 238 total points and going over the total 3-2.

Betting Trends

Indiana Pacers

  • Last 10 road games: 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS
  • As underdog (last 10): 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS
  • Averaging 119 PPG on road, allowing 117 PPG

New York Knicks

  • Last 5 home games: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
  • As favorite (last 3): 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
  • Averaging 105 PPG at home, allowing 110 PPG

Analysis & Prediction

The Pacers have been exceptional in this series, with Tyrese Haliburton delivering a masterful triple-double performance in the previous game. Indiana’s offensive efficiency (51% FG, 40% from three) was the difference-maker, while their defense managed to contain the Knicks enough to secure the victory despite allowing 121 points.

New York faces a critical must-win situation at home, but their recent home form (105 PPG) has been concerning compared to their season averages. The potential absence or limitation of Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable with knee injury) could significantly impact their frontcourt production.

The Pacers have been dominant as underdogs (8-2 ATS in last 10) and on the road (8-2 ATS in last 10), while the Knicks have struggled as favorites recently (1-2 ATS in last 3). The historical head-to-head trends favor high-scoring games, which aligns with the previous game’s 251-point total.

Betting Pick

New York Knicks -4

Despite the Pacers’ recent dominance, expect the Knicks to make necessary adjustments at home in this crucial game. Look for Jalen Brunson to have a bounce-back performance and for New York to leverage their home court advantage. The Knicks should cover the 4-point spread in what projects to be another high-scoring affair.

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