Last Updated: May 28, 2025 at 5:30 PM ET
The Chicago Cubs (34-21) look to complete a three-game sweep against the historically bad Colorado Rockies (9-46) tonight at Wrigley Field. I’ve closely analyzed this extreme mismatch featuring the NL Central leaders against a Rockies team on pace for 135 losses – the worst in modern MLB history. With the pitching matchup favoring the Cubs significantly and the Rockies riding a four-game losing streak, this presents several high-value betting opportunities despite the lopsided odds.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-175) ★★★★☆
– Top Prop: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) ★★★★★
– Value Play: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (+105) ★★★☆☆
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +277 | -351 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (+175) | -1.5 (-175) |
| Total | Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105) |
Opening Line: Cubs -320, Total 8
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game tells an interesting story. Despite the extreme moneyline price, professional money has pushed the Cubs from -320 to -351, indicating strong confidence in the home team. What’s more revealing is the run line movement, which has seen the juice increase on Chicago -1.5 without pushing to -2.5, suggesting sharps see value in backing the Cubs to win by multiple runs.
The total has held steady at 8, but the juice has moved slightly toward the over, likely recognizing the Cubs’ explosive offense (averaging nearly 6 runs per game) against one of MLB’s worst pitching staffs. However, with rookie Tanner Gordon on the mound for Colorado, there’s some uncertainty factored into this number.
Pitching Matchup: Tanner Gordon vs Matthew Boyd – Who Has the Edge?
Colorado Rockies: Tanner Gordon (1-1, 4.38 ERA)
- Rookie right-hander making just his third MLB start
- Limited sample size: 12.1 innings pitched with 9 strikeouts and 3 walks
- Has shown decent control (1.38 WHIP) but limited swing-and-miss stuff
- Vulnerable to left-handed power hitters (.333 BAA in limited MLB exposure)
Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd (4-2, 3.42 ERA)
- Veteran lefty has been a stabilizing force in Cubs rotation
- Excellent 56:15 K:BB ratio across 55.1 innings pitched
- Has been particularly effective at Wrigley (2.53 ERA in home starts)
- Coming off 7 strong innings against Cincinnati with 8 strikeouts
Advantage: Significant edge to Chicago. Boyd provides the Cubs with a reliable veteran presence against a rookie making just his third career start. Boyd’s ability to generate strikeouts gives him a substantial advantage against a Rockies team that’s whiffing at a 29.5% rate on the road this season.
Bullpen Breakdown
The bullpen comparison only widens the gap between these teams. Chicago’s relief corps has stabilized recently with Daniel Palencia emerging as a legitimate closing option and Brad Keller providing quality middle relief. The Cubs have also recently added Génesis Cabrera to strengthen their left-handed options.
Meanwhile, Colorado’s bullpen ranks dead last in MLB with a 6.42 ERA and has been particularly vulnerable on the road, where their ERA balloons to 7.13. They’ve also been overworked during this road trip, throwing 9.2 innings over the first two games of this series alone. This disparity becomes even more significant considering the Cubs’ propensity for late-inning comebacks at Wrigley Field.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Colorado is on pace for the worst record in MLB’s modern era at 9-46 (.164 winning percentage)
- The Rockies are a dismal 3-24 on the road this season with a -107 run differential away from Coors Field
- Chicago is 17-10 at Wrigley Field and has won 8 of their last 10 games overall
- The Cubs have stolen 6 bases in the first two games of this series, exposing Colorado’s poor defensive catching
- Colorado has lost 21 consecutive series dating back to last season – the longest such streak in MLB history
- The Cubs are 23-3 when scoring 5+ runs this season
- The Rockies are 4-31 in games where they allow at least one home run
- Chicago has outscored Colorado 64-22 in their last 8 meetings at Wrigley Field
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Breakthrough: MLB’s Rising Star
Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as one of baseball’s most exciting young talents, displaying elite defense in center field while developing into a legitimate offensive force. His recent performance has been remarkable:
- Ranks 2nd in the NL with 48 RBIs (behind teammate Seiya Suzuki)
- Has recorded 33 extra-base hits (14 HR, 13 2B, 6 3B) already this season
- Slashing .280/.310/.565 with an impressive 145 OPS+
- Currently leads all NL position players with 2.9 WAR
What makes this matchup particularly appealing is Crow-Armstrong’s success against right-handed pitching like Gordon. With Gordon’s limited experience against MLB-caliber hitters, PCA should find plenty of opportunities to impact this game both at the plate and on the basepaths.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has been playing as a neutral park this season, but tonight’s forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with winds blowing out to right field at 8-10 mph. These conditions typically favor left-handed power hitters, which benefits Cubs sluggers like Matt Shaw and Ian Happ.
The Rockies have historically struggled at Wrigley Field, where they’ve lost eight consecutive games dating back to 2022. Colorado’s young pitchers often have difficulty adjusting to the park’s unique dimensions and wind patterns after coming from the spacious outfield of Coors Field. This environmental factor only enhances Chicago’s already substantial home-field advantage.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Rockies-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-175) – 1.75 Units
While the juice is heavy, the Cubs should handle the Rockies comfortably tonight. Chicago has superior pitching, a much better offense, and is playing at home against baseball’s worst road team. The Cubs have won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 11-5, and I expect another multi-run victory tonight. The -351 moneyline is prohibitive, making the run line the most sensible way to back the Cubs.
Strong Value Play: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
This is my favorite bet on the board. Crow-Armstrong has been seeing the ball extremely well, and facing a rookie right-hander with mediocre stuff creates a perfect opportunity. PCA has exceeded this total in 6 of his last 9 games, and his combination of power and speed gives him multiple paths to cashing this prop. At plus-money odds, this represents outstanding value.
Worth Considering: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (+105)
This is a contrarian play based on Gordon’s limited MLB exposure. While the rookie hasn’t been dominant, he’s shown enough control to potentially keep the Cubs in check for a few innings. Boyd should handle the weak Rockies lineup efficiently, and I expect a relatively low-scoring start before Chicago pulls away late. The plus-money odds make this an appealing value option.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★★★ |
| Matthew Boyd | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★★☆ |
| Seiya Suzuki | To Record an RBI | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Over 1.5 Hits | +175 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Cubs Team Total | Over 4.5 Runs | -135 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs Continue to Roll Against Historic Underdogs
The gap between these two franchises couldn’t be more stark. The Cubs are a legitimate NL contender with one of baseball’s most explosive offenses, while the Rockies are on pace for the worst record in modern MLB history. Colorado’s 9-46 start has them playing at a .164 winning percentage – well below even the 2003 Tigers (43-119, .265) and 2024 White Sox (41-121, .253).
Given the pitching matchup, location, and current form of both teams, I see no reason to overthink this game. The Cubs should complete the sweep comfortably behind Matthew Boyd’s quality start and continued offensive production from their red-hot lineup. While laying -1.5 at -175 isn’t ideal, it’s the most practical way to back the clearly superior team.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6, Colorado Rockies 2
