WNBA prediction(s?)
Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun 7 PM EST
Atlanta Dream at La Sparks? 10 PM EST
Doing something unusual today, an “If” bet.
If the early game wins, I’ll bank it and take the second game off. If it loses, I’ll play the second game and hope to get back to even on the night.
I don’t have either play graded stronger than the other, or I’d be more decisive and just take one of them.
First up is Dallas at Connecticut.
WF2 says Connecticut should be the Favorite.
WF2 has a record of 3-1 this season, 2-1 on Hm teams like the Sun tonight.
So why am I going against my own numbers?
Because WF1 says Dallas is the correct Fav AND should win by more than twice the -4, the books hung on the game.
In other words, it qualifies as an asterisk play, the first of the year.
As I mentioned in the PredictEm forum on Sunday:
It’s important to remember that in handicapping, what worked one season may not work the next season.
But you sure as hell want to be aware of it when you are doing your handicapping in the current year.
LY (Last Year): This play was profitable across all sports that I handicapped.
In the WNBA, in particular, it was a 6-2 Fade of the WF2 team, which points me to taking Dallas tonight.
The Wings are winless on the season at 0-4.
So why would the books make them the Favorite, and on the road no less?
Because the Sun are also winless at 0-4.
And Dallas has played a tougher schedule.
Dallas’s four losses were by 15, 8, 4, and 8, an average of eight points per game, while Connecticut has lost by 5, 22, 6, and 24, an average of 14 PPG.
Both are 1-3 ATS.
The Wings are 1-1 ATS on the Rd.
The Sun are 0-2 ATS at Hm.
Connecticut is coming off a 24-point blowout at the hands of the Atlanta Dream, while Dallas lost their last game to that same Dream team but by just eight points.
As they say in boxing, “Somebody’s 0 has got to go.”
Of these two losers, I like Dallas to be the first to get a win.
For the second part of the “If” bet, I’m using the LA Sparks.
WF1 says Atlanta should be the favorite here.
WF1 is just 5-7 on the season and even worse on Rd teams at 1-5.
This is the same spot I used in Friday’s article when I took Seattle at home and got a W.
I didn’t much like the Storm in that spot, and I don’t much like the Sparks in this spot.
LA has a losing record at 2-3.
Atlanta has a winning record at 3-2, but the Dream’s last two victories aren’t exactly what you would call quality W’s – they beat Dallas and Connecticut.
This is a good spot for LA to get to .500. They’re off a home win of 13 points over Chicago. Newly acquired Stephanie Plum is the second-leading scorer in the league at 24.8 PPG. She’s joined by Stevens and Hambry at number 16 and 17, giving LA three of the top 20 scorers in the game. Their problem has been on defense, where they’re giving up 78 PPG.
The key to this game will be rebounds:
Atlanta sits at the top of the league, averaging 41 per game, while LA is dead last with 10 fewer at 31 per game. If the Sparks can cut into that differential in this game, they can cover as the small Hm Fav.
Ahh, what the hell, screw the “If” bet. I’m playing both.
My best play this year has been fading WF1 on the Rd. I’ve already used it for a couple winners, and like I always say, “Stick with what works until it doesn’t.”
My plays:
Dal -4
LA -2
Recap: 1-1
Record: 2-5
Review: Banked one with Seattle on Friday, lost by a hook with New York on Saturday.
