The Arizona Diamondbacks (26-25) head to Busch Stadium to face the St. Louis Cardinals (28-23) for the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon. After dropping the opener 4-3 on Friday night, the Diamondbacks look to bounce back with veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly on the mound. The Cardinals counter with homegrown lefty Matthew Liberatore, who has been a pleasant surprise this season with his 2.92 ERA. With both teams jockeying for Wild Card position, this matchup carries significant implications in the National League playoff race.
Quick Picks:
* Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-106) ★★★☆☆
* Top Prop: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) ★★★★☆
Value Play:* Under 8 Runs (-103) ★★★☆☆
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Betting Odds
| Market | Diamondbacks | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -113 | -106 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+146) | +1.5 (-175) |
| Total | Over 8 (-117) | Under 8 (-103) |
Opening Line: Diamondbacks -105, Cardinals -115, Total 8
Pitching Matchup: Kelly vs. Liberatore – Who Has the Edge?
Arizona: Merrill Kelly (5-2, 3.26 ERA)
- 58.0 innings pitched with 52 strikeouts and 15 walks
- 1.00 WHIP shows excellent control and command
- Coming off a strong stretch with a 2.02 ERA in his last eight starts
- Has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts this season
St. Louis: Matthew Liberatore (3-3, 2.92 ERA)
- 52.1 innings pitched with 47 strikeouts and only 8 walks
- Impressive 1.03 WHIP indicates he’s keeping runners off the bases
- Home splits: 2.56 ERA at Busch Stadium this season
- Valley native (Peoria, AZ) with extra motivation against his hometown team
Advantage: Slight edge to Liberatore based on home performance and lower walk rate, but both pitchers are in excellent form.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Diamondbacks bullpen has been a major weakness, ranking 28th in MLB with a 6.39 ERA since April 18th. They do get a boost with the return of Justin Martinez from the IL, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be immediately. On the other side, the Cardinals’ relief corps has been much steadier, with a 3.41 ERA over the past month and showing excellent command. Ryan Helsley (10 saves) did allow a 2-run homer last night but closed things out for St. Louis.
Key Betting Trends That Matter
- Cardinals are 14-4 in their last 18 games overall
- Diamondbacks are 5-5 in their last 10 games
- St. Louis is 17-8 at home this season
- Arizona is 13-12 on the road this season
- The Under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams
- Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
Masyn Winn: Cardinals’ Emerging Star
The Cardinals’ young shortstop Masyn Winn has been a defensive wizard and is starting to heat up at the plate as well. His defensive play in yesterday’s game potentially saved multiple runs, and his ability to get on base from the top of the lineup creates opportunities for the heart of the order. Look for Winn to be a difference-maker both defensively and on the basepaths today.
Busch Stadium Factor
Busch Stadium has played as a pitcher-friendly park this season, with the ball not carrying as well as in other venues. The Diamondbacks’ power bats like Corbin Carroll may find it tougher to drive the ball out of the park here. Additionally, the Cardinals have been excellent at home (17-8), while the D-backs are just slightly above .500 on the road. The home field advantage is significant in this matchup.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets
Primary Play: Cardinals ML (-106)
I’m backing the Cardinals at home today with Liberatore on the mound. While Kelly is an excellent pitcher, Liberatore has been exceptional at Busch Stadium this season. The Cardinals’ recent 14-4 hot streak, combined with their 17-8 home record, makes them the value play on the moneyline. The Diamondbacks’ struggling bullpen is another factor in my decision, even with Martinez returning. St. Louis has simply been playing better, more complete baseball over the past month.
Strong Value Play: Under 8 Runs (-103)
Both starting pitchers have been excellent this season, with Kelly posting a 3.26 ERA and Liberatore at 2.92. The Cardinals’ offense isn’t built on power (only 0.92 HR/game), and Busch Stadium suppresses offense. The D-backs’ bats have been inconsistent recently, scoring just 7 runs over their last 3 games. With two quality starters on the mound in a pitcher-friendly park, I expect a low-scoring affair.
Worth Considering: Cardinals F5 ML (-110)
If you’re concerned about bullpen volatility, the first five innings bet on the Cardinals looks appealing. Liberatore has been dominant at home, and the Cardinals have been scoring early in games during their recent hot streak. This eliminates the uncertainty of the Diamondbacks’ newly reconstructed bullpen with Martinez back.
Player Props Worth Targeting
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Merrill Kelly | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Brendan Donovan | To Record a Hit | -270 | ★★★★☆ |
| Matthew Liberatore | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cardinals’ Home Dominance Continues
The Cardinals have quietly been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past few weeks, winning 14 of 18 games. Their balanced attack, excellent home record, and strong pitching give them the edge today. While Kelly is certainly capable of shutting down the Cardinals lineup, I believe Liberatore will match him inning for inning, and the Cardinals’ superior bullpen and home field advantage will be the difference in the late innings.
This feels like a game that will be decided by one key hit in the late innings, and the Cardinals have been coming through in those situations more consistently than the Diamondbacks. St. Louis continues their climb up the NL standings with a narrow victory.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 4, Diamondbacks 2
