New York Knicks (51-31 SU, 48-44 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (61-21 SU, 42-48 ATS)
Date & Time: Wednesday, May 14th, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
TV Coverage: TNT
Point Spread: NY +4.5 | BOS -4.5
Total: 208
Money Line: Knicks +153 | Celtics -181
Key Matchup Insights
The Eastern Conference semifinals reach a pivotal Game 5 as the New York Knicks (51-31) travel to TD Garden to face the Boston Celtics (61-21). The Knicks are one victory away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals to face the Indiana Pacers, while the Celtics face a do-or-die situation on their home court. The series has taken a dramatic turn with Jayson Tatum ruled out due to an Achilles injury, significantly altering the dynamics of this crucial matchup.
Notable Injuries
New York Knicks
- No Injuries Reported
Boston Celtics
- Jayson Tatum (Out) – Achilles
- Sam Hauser (Probable) – Ankle
Series Status
The Knicks hold a commanding position in this series after their impressive 121-113 victory in Game 4. With Boston’s superstar Jayson Tatum now sidelined with an Achilles injury, New York has a golden opportunity to close out the series and advance to face Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Game 4 Recap
New York delivered a statement performance with a 121-113 victory over Boston on Monday. Despite entering as 5.5-point underdogs, the Knicks controlled the game and covered the spread comfortably. The combined 234 points far exceeded the 208.5 over/under line by 25.5 points.
The game’s turning point came when New York went on an 11-0 run, converting a 16-9 deficit into a 20-16 lead. After a competitive second quarter ended 23-23, the Knicks seized control with a dominant 37-23 third quarter and closed strong with a 33-28 fourth-quarter advantage.
Player Performance (Game 4)
New York Knicks
- Jalen Brunson: 39 points, 12 assists, 56% FG, 4-8 from three (50%), 18 points in 3rd quarter
- Mikal Bridges: 23 points, 10 in the 4th quarter
- Karl-Anthony Towns: 23 points
- OG Anunoby: 20 points, 9 in the 4th quarter
- Team Shooting: 54.3% FG, 35.3% 3PT (12 made), 9-12 FT (75%)
Boston Celtics
- Jayson Tatum: 42 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 57.1% FG, 7-14 from three (50%)
- Derrick White: 23 points, 6-11 from three (54.5%), 14 points in 1st quarter
- Jaylen Brown: 20 points
- Payton Pritchard: 12 points, 7 in the 4th quarter
- Team Shooting: 48.1% FG, 37.5% 3PT (18 made), 19-26 FT (73.1%)
Quarter-by-Quarter Breakdown (Game 4)
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 28 | 28 | 37 | 33 | 121 |
| Boston | 39 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 113 |
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Team Form
New York Knicks (51-31)
- Current Series Position: Leading 3-1, one win from ECF
- Road Record (Recent): 3-0 straight-up and ATS in last 3 road games
- Road Scoring: Averaging 105 points in last 3 road games
- As Underdog (Recent): 6-4 straight-up, 7-3 ATS in last 10 games
- Series History vs. BOS: 4-1 ATS in last 5 meetings
Boston Celtics (61-21)
- Current Series Position: Down 3-1, facing elimination
- Home Record (Recent): 2-1 straight-up and ATS in last 3 home games
- Home Scoring: Averaging 111 points in last 3 home games
- As Favorite (Recent): 1-2 straight-up and ATS in last 3 games
- Key Loss: Jayson Tatum out with Achilles injury
Head-to-Head History
The recent history shows remarkable parity between these teams, with an average scoring margin of just 2 points per game in their last five meetings. However, the Knicks have been superior against the spread, posting a 4-1 ATS record during this span. The teams have averaged 214 combined points in these matchups, with an over-under record of 2-2-1.
Key Factors for Game 5
Tatum’s Absence: The most significant factor is Jayson Tatum being ruled out with an Achilles injury. After scoring 42 points in Game 4 while clearly playing through pain, his absence creates a massive void in Boston’s offense and completely changes the series dynamics.
Brunson’s Brilliance: Jalen Brunson’s 39-point, 12-assist masterpiece in Game 4 showcased his ability to control big games. His 18-point third quarter was instrumental in the Knicks’ victory, and his leadership will be crucial in a potential closeout game.
Balanced Knicks Attack: New York’s depth was on display in Game 4, with four players scoring 20+ points. This balance becomes even more important without having to account for Tatum’s scoring prowess.
Boston’s Offensive Challenge: Without Tatum, the Celtics will need Jaylen Brown to step up as the primary scorer, while Derrick White and Payton Pritchard must maintain their excellent three-point shooting from Game 4.
Betting Trends Analysis
- New York has been perfect on the road lately: 3-0 both straight-up and ATS in their last three away games
- The Knicks have thrived as underdogs: 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in that role
- Boston has struggled as favorites recently: 1-2 both straight-up and ATS in their last three games when favored
- The Knicks dominate the recent head-to-head ATS record: 4-1 in their last five meetings
Impact of Tatum’s Injury
Tatum’s absence cannot be overstated. He averaged 42 points in Game 4 while clearly compromised, and his elimination removes Boston’s primary offensive weapon and best player. The Celtics lose not only his scoring (27+ PPG regular season average) but also his playmaking, rebounding, and clutch-time reliability.
Boston’s offense will now rely heavily on Jaylen Brown, who will face increased defensive attention from New York. The supporting cast, including White, Pritchard, and potentially an increased role for players like Al Horford, must step up significantly.
Expert Pick Against The Spread
Game 5 presents a clear betting opportunity given the changed circumstances. While Boston still has talent and the desperation of facing elimination, Tatum’s absence fundamentally alters this matchup. The Knicks have momentum, excellent recent road form (3-0 ATS), and now face a hobbled opponent.
New York’s balanced attack, led by Brunson’s exceptional play, should be enough to handle a Celtics team missing their best player. The 4.5-point spread seems insufficient given the magnitude of losing Tatum, especially considering the Knicks’ recent dominance in this series.
Boston may fight valiantly in front of their home crowd, but the combination of losing their superstar and the Knicks’ road excellence makes New York an attractive play.
Betting Pick: New York Knicks +4.5
Expect the Knicks to close out the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even if Boston manages to keep the game competitive early, New York’s depth and Tatum’s absence should lead to a Knicks victory that covers the 4.5-point spread. Don’t be surprised if New York wins outright for the second consecutive game.
