Cleveland at Indiana

NBA Prop Bet Predictions

Before I get to today’s bets and analysis . . .

Wednesday morning I bet on the Kunming Monks.
I had no idea who they are.
I didn’t even know what sport or league they play in.
I opened up Bovada to check the morning NBA lines and at the top of the page I saw a game between the Kunming Monks and the Shanghai Five.
The Monks were -5′, live.
I bet it on a whim simply because I think the Kunming Monks is a great name for a team.

At first glance I didn’t see the “n” in the middle of Kunming and thought it was the Kumming Monks, which, for obvious reasons, is an even cooler name than the Kunming Monks.
They won by double digits so it worked out well for me.
Sometimes life is cool that way.

Cleveland Cavs at Indiana Pacers Game 4

Play #1
Nesmith Ov 12′ points

In game three, I used this same play for a PredictEm forum bet and took a loss when Nesmith had an off game and shot below his normal averages.
I’m okay with that because I’m pretty sure I can get it back in game four – he’s a bounce-back kind of guy.
I’ll show you what I mean.
Here are his lines for the game.
FG 3/7
Total points scored, 7.

Here are his scores in the last seven games when he put up single digits, followed by his points scored in the next game:

• 9/16
• 6/17
• 7/24
• 7/22
• 7/16
• 9/9
• 7/27

In six of those seven situations he came back the next game and scored double digits.
In those six, every one was more than the 12′ I need him to surpass on Sunday.
And coincidentally (and meaningless, but it has a nice symmetry to it) in four games he scored exactly 7, just like he did in game three, and in all four follow-up games he scored more than 12′, averaging 22 PPG.
Like I said, he’s a bounce back kind of guy.

His off night in game three saw him miss three of four three-point shots. In the two previous games his 3-point shooting was 5/8 and 4/6, a combined 9 for 14, taking an average of seven per game.
He’s averaging over 6 three point attempts per game in the postseason.
He’s made at least two three pointers in seven of ten postseason games.
Based on those averages I expect him to TAKE more and MAKE more three-point shots in game four.

In the first two games in the series he scored 17 and 19, so in two of three games he surpassed the number I need for Sunday’s game.

In the previous series against Milwaukee, he scored 7, 16, 18, 14, and 19.
In four of the five, he scored more than I need Sunday.

In eight post-season games he scored 14 or more six times; that’s 75%.

And when facing Cleveland this season, he’s now scored double digits in four of five games, three of the five enough to cover tonight’s number.

After taking the first two games on the road in Cleveland, the Pacers returned home and lost in game three. If they lose game four, then their 2-0 start is wasted, and they’re faced with going back on the road to Cleveland for game five, tied 2-2. I have no feel for them winning or losing ATS but I have a strong gut-feel that says Nesmith will once again follow up a poor performance with a solid one.
And I have the stats to back it up.

Play #2:
Nesmith Over 4′ rebounds

Our sponsor Bovada has a very attractive price on this prop, Over 4′, -130.

His regular season average for rebounds per game is 4, but in the postseason, he’s averaging 6.3.

In the first free games of the series against the Cavs, he grabbed 8, 4, and 7.

In round one versus Milwaukee, he grabbed 6, 2, 7, 5, and 12.

He’s topped 4′ rebounds in six of eight post-season games, and at home, he’s topped 4′ in two of three games.

In the two playoff games where he had subpar numbers, scoring just seven points in each, he still managed to grab seven rebounds in one game and six in the other.
In other words . . . the odds are against him having subpar numbers in both points scored and rebounds.
So, I’m looking for a split worst-case with these two bets.

I’m not one to put all my eggs in one basket (actually, I don’t put any eggs in my basket, I don’t eat them; gross), but as long as I’m looking for Nesmith to have a really good game, I’m going to use him in a second prop, too.

My Plays:

Nesmith Ov 12′ points, -111
Nesmith Ov 4′ rebounds, -130

Recap: 1-0
Record: 14-14
Review: I forgot to do a recap in my last article.
Got W’s in my last two, hitting with the prop on White in my last bet and with the Pacers as Dogs in the game before that.
Back to 500, got to recover some juice and then hopefully get on the right side of the ledger.