Golden State Warriors (48-34 SU, 44-43 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (52-30 SU, 47-41 ATS)
When: Sunday, May 4th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
TV Coverage: TNT
Point Spread: Warriors +2.5 / Rockets -2.5
Total: 205.5
Money Line: Golden State Warriors +118 / Houston Rockets -140
Notable Injuries
Warriors
- No Injuries Reported
Rockets
- Jock Landale (Out) – Knee
- Jae’Sean Tate (Out) – Ankle
At 8:30 ET, the Houston Rockets (-140) will host the Golden State Warriors (+118) in a decisive Game 7 Western Conference playoff showdown. The Rockets are favored by 2.5 points and the over/under line is set at 205.5. TNT will televise this winner-take-all contest that will determine who advances to the Western Conference Finals.
After trailing 3-2 in the series, Houston (52-30) has stormed back with consecutive victories to force this Game 7 on their home court. Golden State (48-34) now faces the difficult task of winning a third road game in this series to keep their championship hopes alive. The Toyota Center crowd will be at full volume for this elimination game.
Get -105 Odds on Spread Bets
BAS Sportsbook -105 Odds!
BetAnySports is the perfect 5Dimes replacement, offering reduced juice with -105 odds on most markets. If you’re looking to get more value from your bets, this is the sportsbook for you. With the same great features you loved about 5Dimes, BetAnySports provides competitive lines, smooth navigation, and a wide range of betting options. Ready to step up your game? Read More
Start Saving Today!Recent Series Developments
With a 115-107 win on Friday night in Game 6, the Rockets tied this back-and-forth series at 3-3. Golden State was favored by 5.5 points at Chase Center but couldn’t close out the series at home, while the game’s total of 222 points easily surpassed the pre-game line of 208.5.
Golden State appeared poised to advance when they went on an 11-0 run in the third quarter to take the lead, but Houston’s resilience proved too much. After the Warriors narrowed the deficit to 86-84 heading into the 4th quarter, the Rockets responded by outscoring them 29-23 in the final period to force this decisive Game 7.
This series has featured dramatic momentum shifts, with the Warriors winning Games 1 and 3 on the road before the Rockets responded with a crucial Game 4 victory. Golden State reclaimed the series lead with a dominant Game 5 performance, only to see Houston fight back with their season-saving Game 6 victory.
Series History
The Rockets have gained momentum at the perfect time, winning consecutive games to even the series after trailing 3-2. Home court has provided surprisingly little advantage in this matchup, with the road team winning three of the first six games. The over has hit in four of the six games, with the teams combining to average 218 points per contest throughout the series. Neither team has won by more than 12 points in any game, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup.
Team Analysis
In their 115-107 loss to the Rockets, the Warriors shot just 41.1% from the field and 30.6% from beyond the arc. Stephen Curry led the way with 29 points, hitting 6 three-pointers at a 37.5% clip, while Jimmy Butler added 27 points and 8 assists.
Moses Moody contributed 13 points, connecting on 3 three-pointers at 60% shooting. Curry scored 11 points in the 2nd quarter and another 10 in the 3rd, while Butler also added 10 points in the 3rd.
Defensively, the Warriors surrendered 115 points to the Rockets, who shot 44% from the field. Golden State allowed 25 points in the 1st quarter and 28 in the 2nd, but Houston scored 33 in the 3rd and 29 in the 4th.
From three-point range, the Rockets hit 12 three-pointers at a 40% clip. The Warriors also sent Houston to the free-throw line 46 times, where they made 33. Golden State recorded 6 steals and 6 blocks in the game.
Fred VanVleet led the Rockets to a win over the Warriors, scoring 29 points with 8 assists and 8 rebounds, hitting 6 three-pointers at a 66.7% rate. He scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter and added 9 more in the 4th.
Alperen Şengün contributed 21 points and 14 rebounds, with 8 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters. Steven Adams was perfect from the field, finishing with 17 points, including 8 in the final period.
Defensively, the Rockets were strong in the 1st and 4th quarters, giving up just 21 and 23 points, respectively, to help secure the win. They allowed 36 points in the 3rd but still held the Warriors to 107 points on 41% shooting.
Houston limited Golden State’s three-point shooting, allowing 15 three-pointers on 30% shooting. The Warriors went 18/22 from the line. The Rockets finished with 12 steals and 5 blocks.
Betting Trends
- Through their last ten road contests, the Warriors offense has averaged 114 points per game while allowing an average of 106. Golden State posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 6-3-1 ATS.
- Across the Rockets’ last five home games, the team averaged 108 points per game while allowing 118. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 1-4 straight-up.
- Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Golden State has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.
- As the betting favorite, the Rockets have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.
Pick Against The Spread
Golden State missed out on what I believe was their chance to close out the series. Now, they have to try to clinch this series in Houston, and this will be a hostile environment, as there is no love lost between these teams. I think Houston comes out on top in game 7, and I’m taking the Rockets to cover the 2.5-point spread.
