Betting Preview
Welcome to our comprehensive betting analysis for the Sunday, May 4th MLB matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies (19-14) and Arizona Diamondbacks (17-16) at Citizens Bank Park. Today’s game features a compelling pitching matchup with Ranger Suárez making his 2025 season debut for Philadelphia against Eduardo Rodriguez for the visiting Diamondbacks. We’ve gathered the latest stats, trends, and insights to help inform your betting decisions.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | +111 | +1.5 | O 9 (-106) |
| PHI | -129 | -1.5 | U 9 (-114) |
There’s a chance of light rain in Philadelphia on Sunday when the Phillies and Diamondbacks conclude their series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05 PM ET, with regional coverage on NBCS-PH and ARID.
The Phillies enter with a record of 19-14 and have won their last two games, while the Diamondbacks stand at 17-16 as they hope to avoid losing consecutive series. Arizona is listed at +111 on the money line, with Philadelphia as the favorite at -129. The oddsmakers have set the over/under at 9 runs.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Projected Lineup
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 1 | 2B |
| Corbin Carroll | 2 | RF |
| Randal Grichuk | 3 | DH |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4 | LF |
| Josh Naylor | 5 | 1B |
| Eugenio Suárez | 6 | 3B |
| Gabriel Moreno | 7 | C |
| Alek Thomas | 8 | CF |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 9 | SS |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | – | SP |
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 1 | SS |
| Bryce Harper | 2 | 1B |
| Kyle Schwarber | 3 | DH |
| Nick Castellanos | 4 | RF |
| J.T. Realmuto | 5 | C |
| Alec Bohm | 6 | 3B |
| Edmundo Sosa | 7 | 2B |
| Weston Wilson | 8 | LF |
| Johan Rojas | 9 | CF |
| Ranger Suárez | – | SP |
Season Records & Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks: 17-16 SU / OU 16-14 / Runline 17-16
Philadelphia Phillies: 19-14 SU / OU 15-18 / Runline 19-14
The Phillies delivered a convincing 7-2 victory over the Diamondbacks in their most recent meeting. Philadelphia exploded for six runs in the second and third innings (three in each), while Arizona managed just two runs in the seventh. Aaron Nola earned the win by tossing six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts, while Brandon Pfaadt took the loss after surrendering six earned runs in 4.2 innings.
J.T. Realmuto and Max Kepler both homered for the Phillies, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. connected for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies offense was led by Realmuto, Kepler, and Brandon Marsh, each contributing two hits and two RBIs.
Diamondbacks Records & Recent Form
Arizona comes into this contest with a 17-16 overall record and is looking to avoid dropping three straight games. Currently sitting fourth in the NL West, the Diamondbacks trail the division-leading Dodgers by six games.
The D-backs have yet to play a game against another NL West team this season. They’ve performed slightly better on the road (9-8) than at home (8-8). When playing as the underdog this season, Arizona has compiled a 17-16 record, but they’ve lost their last two games in that role. Their overall series record stands at 5-4-1, and they’re hoping to avoid dropping consecutive series.
Phillies Records & Recent Form
Philadelphia holds a 19-14 record and sits three games behind the NL East-leading Mets. The Phillies have won two consecutive games and have gone 6-4 over their last 10. In divisional games, they’ve posted a 7-8 record this season.
The Phillies have been dominant at Citizens Bank Park with a 13-5 home record, compared to just 6-9 on the road. They’ve been perfect when favored this season and have gone 19-14 when listed as the underdog.
Pitching Matchup
Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Arizona in his seventh start of the 2025 season. Rodriguez has struggled to a 1-3 record with a 6.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. In his last outing, he was hit hard for eight earned runs in just four innings of work. Over his last three starts, Rodriguez has surrendered at least one home run in each appearance. His road ERA (8.96) has been significantly worse than his home mark (4.43) this season.
Ranger Suárez makes his highly anticipated 2025 debut for the Phillies after beginning the season on the injured list with lower back stiffness. The 29-year-old lefty is coming off a 2024 campaign where he went 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA across 27 starts. Suárez was particularly strong early last season, earning All-Star honors after starting 9-0 with a 1.36 ERA in his first 10 starts, though he struggled in the second half (6.54 ERA over his final 11 outings). During his rehab assignment, Suárez looked sharp, posting a 1.08 ERA with 24 strikeouts over 16.2 innings across four minor league starts.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Offense Outlook
Arizona’s offense ranks among MLB’s best this season, averaging 5 runs per game (6th in MLB). They’ve been even more productive at home (5.1 runs per game). The Diamondbacks have shown excellent plate discipline, ranking 3rd in walks while being one of the toughest lineups to strike out. With the 4th best slugging percentage and 5th best OPS in the league, their offense remains dangerous.
Corbin Carroll (9 HR) and Eugenio Suárez (10 HR) provide significant power threats, though Suárez is batting just .197 this season. Suárez has been hot recently, going 8-for-27 with four homers over his last seven games. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been scorching over his last six games, batting .409 with one home run.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks 12th in MLB, averaging 4.5 runs per game, but they’ve been much more potent at home (5.3 runs per game). The Phillies are batting .252 as a team with a .334 on-base percentage that ranks 5th in the league. They’ve also been effective at avoiding strikeouts, ranking 8th in that category.
Max Kepler and Trea Turner have been Philadelphia’s hottest hitters lately. Kepler is batting .321 with four homers over his last eight games, while Turner has gone 15-for-33 during that same stretch, scoring seven runs. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 10 home runs, while Turner paces the batting order with a .303 average.
Free Diamondbacks vs. Phillies MLB Pick
With Suárez making his season debut after missing the first month with back stiffness and Rodriguez’s ERA sitting above 6.00, there’s potential for plenty of offense in this matchup. Both teams feature powerful lineups that have shown the ability to put up crooked numbers, especially the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
While Suárez looked sharp during his rehab assignment, first starts back from injury often involve some rust and typically limited pitch counts. Rodriguez has been particularly vulnerable on the road, and Phillies hitters like Max Kepler (6-for-17, 2 HR against Rodriguez) could exploit that weakness.
With an over/under of 9 runs, our analysis points to the OVER as the best value play for this Phillies vs. Diamondbacks series finale. Both offenses have the firepower to contribute to a high-scoring affair, making this the most attractive betting option.
